Formula 1 Championship Summer Break Odds: Kimi Antonelli Leads F1 Outrights

Written By James Capps | Published at August 3, 2026
May 23, 2026; Montreal, Quebec, CANADA; Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli (12) during the qualifying session of the Lenovo Grand Prix Du Canada at Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images

We find ourselves at the summer break in the Formula One calendar, and after eleven races we have a clear frontrunner in the Drivers Championship and outright betting race.

19-year-old Kimi Antonelli has defied his tender years with a string of impressive performances. Mercedes team mate George Russell took the season opener in Australia, but Antonelli responded with his maiden F1 victory in Shanghai, before going on to win all of the following four races.

That run came to an end courtesy of a late retirement in Barcelona, but victory in Belgium and a podium finish in Hungary just before the break leaves the Italian in a commanding position, leading the Drivers Championship with a 50-point advantage.

And that lead makes him a huge favourite in the betting markets.

Antonelli is as short as 1/4 (Matchbook) to win a first Formula One drivers title, and with Russell providing ample support, it’s no surprise to see Mercedes at 1/6 to win the Constructors’ Championship. Ferrari are 72 points further back and are around 5/1 to make up the deficit.

Further back in the betting for individual honours, Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton is seen by the bookies as the only significant challenger to Antonelli, despite the seven-time champion winning only one race this season.

That victory came in Barcelona six weeks ago, and despite only one podium finish since then, Hamilton is 6/1 second-favourite for the Drivers Championship.

George Russell has two wins to his name, but has struggled with consistency in a car that hasn’t been 100% dependable this season. He’s third in the standings but is a huge 22/1 to win a first F1 title.

The season resumes in the penultimate weekend of August at the Dutch Grand Prix in Zandvoort.