Suspicious Ballon d’Or Betting Patterns See Punters Pocket £150,000

At least 12 punters correctly predicted the exact order of the voting of the 2026 Ballon d’Or… landing a combined £149,000 payday.

Bayern Munich and England striker Harry Kane took the honour, which rewards the best footballer on the planet over the previous 12 months, beating Kylian Mbappe and Lamine Yamal into second and third place respectively.

But an investigation has found that 12 Polymarket accounts – seven of which had never placed a single bet before – perfectly predicted the top five in the Ballon d’Or voting, winning the huge sum mentioned.

France Football, which operates the award ceremony, has now launched an investigation into the possibility of insider trading, while French police have also opened a criminal investigation.

Suspicious Betting

Although many of the exact details are yet to be made public, we do know that bets totalling more than £196,000 were placed by the dozen Polymarket accounts under scrutiny.

Of those 12, six placed their first bets since being created on the exact order of the Ballon d’Or top five – all within 15 minutes of the account being registered.

Although it could all just be a remarkable coincidence, the nature and timing of the bets appears to be suspicious. Kane and Yamal were considered to be almost neck-and-neck in the voting, with Mbappe a distant third.

However, so significant were the price changes on Polymarket just a week ahead of the ceremony, with Yamal’s probability of finishing ahead of Mbappe dropping from around 75% to 28% in barely seven days, there is a clear pattern of possible deception.

The Ballon d’Or is decided by a jury of representatives from each of football’s major nations, who place their votes in advance of the ceremony – so, in theory at least, the finishing positions of the players are known by a handful of people before the trophy is handed out.

French Connection Investigated

Upside, a French media firm, has conducted their own investigation into the alleged plot.

They identified a series of Polymarket users, including one account under the name ‘kraben006’, which appeared to coordinate their betting activities across a relatively short timeframe. There is a possibility that they are all linked to the same individual or a synchronised group of punters.

The challenge for investigators will be in unearthing the identities of those involved; Polymarket users don’t have to verify their identity or source of funds in the same way that account holders with licensed betting sites do.

However Upside were able to trace one of the account holders back to France, which is of course where the Ballon d’Or originated and where France Football, the organisers, are based.

Coincidence? Potentially, but as Upside conclude in their piece: ‘the probability that this $264,000 is a matter of chance will, arithmetically, be very difficult to defend.’

Cheating at Gambling

France Football have reiterated that only a handful of people know the finishing order of the Ballon d’Or voting in advance of the ceremony.

“How do we keep the winner’s identity hidden? I think a well-kept secret is one that is shared with as few people as possible,” said the publication’s former editor, Pascal Ferré.

The ongoing investigation will hopefully identify any foul play involved. And if inside information has been used, the perpetrator can expect some serious punishments to head their way – potentially even imprisonment.

In the UK, three individuals used privileged information to bet on the date of the 2024 General Election, before said date had been made public. They each stood to win a considerable amount, but were found guilty in court of ‘cheating at gambling’ – each of the defendants was handed a suspended prison sentence.