Bad for Trump, Good for the Bookies: £1 Billion Bet on US Midterms

It’s been a challenging few days for Donald Trump, who has witnessed the Republican Party take a bit of a kicking in the US midterm elections.

It looks as though they have lost seven seats in the Senate, with states like Texas – typically staunch Republican supporters – instead opting to vote for the Democrats.

The recriminations have already begun, but one thing is for sure: the public continues to show no shortage of appetite for political betting.

It’s estimated that more than £1 billion was wagered on the midterm markets around the world, making the elections one of the most bet-upon events of all time.

And that man Trump has been at the heart of some of the most popular political betting markets in history…

Prediction Markets Up the Ante

With prediction markets now hugely popular in the United States, it was always likely that the midterms would generate a huge betting interest with individuals that don’t use traditional sportsbooks.

The often controversial prediction sites, like Polymarket and Kalshi, offer ‘yes and no’ outcomes and use percentages rather than standard fixed odds, which is thought to be more appealing to the casual punter.

And everyone on both sides of the Atlantic has an opinion on Trump it seems, so it was no surprise to see the midterm elections go down as one of the most feverishly wagered events in history.

Given the nature of the results, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the 2028 Presidential Election – no matter who stands – will also shatter the £1 billion ceiling.

Third Term

It’s somewhat ironic that Trump himself has played a part in the expanded popularity of prediction markets. He appointed close adviser Mike Selig as the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last year… the same Selig who formerly acted as a lawyer for both Polymarket and Kalshi.

Those sites were in their infancy back in 2024, but still managed to generate a staggering £2.6 billion in bets as Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the Presidential Election.

The midterms are generally lower key in nature, although that hasn’t been the case this year with record numbers of voters turning out to have their say on Trump’s presidency.

Assuming the 80-year-old doesn’t run for office in 2028, which he legally isn’t allowed to do as it would be his third term, that next election could prove to be less divisive.

But even so, it’s unlikely that punters will turn their back on political betting any time soon.

British Betting Bonanza

Even in the UK, there’s a ferocious hunger for political betting markets.

Around three million bets were placed on the Biden vs Trump election in 2020, which amounted to some £600 million in betting handle for bookmakers and the Betfair Exchange.

For context, around £100 million is bet on the Grand National each year, with the same amount again wagered on football’s 2026 World Cup final.

One of the most contentious US elections in history – Trump vs Clinton back in 2016, saw just shy of £200 million matched on the Betfair Exchange alone. According to the operator, the Presidential Elections in 2016, 2020 and 2024 are comfortably their most liquid markets ever opened.

Now consider the outcome if prediction markets are legalised in the UK. The consensus is that these markets are more attractive to ‘casual’ bettors than standard bookmakers, where fractional odds and returns can be confusing to newcomers.

With simple ‘yes or no’ options on the 2028 US election, even more records could be smashed here and in the United States.