Italy vs Northern Ireland Playoff Predictions Kick-Off Time & Where To Watch

Written By Dan Angell | Published at March 26, 2026

Until 2010, Italy essentially had an automatic bid to the World Cup’s knockout stage. Only three times in eight tries did the Azzurri place lower than fourth, making the Italians one of the safest bets for a deep run. But going into Italy vs. Northern Ireland, it’s now been 20 years since Italy’s seen the knockout stage, and for the past two cycles, the Italians haven’t made the tournament at all.

And now they’ve got to do things the hard way if they’re going to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. It starts with Northern Ireland, an opponent they’ve historically dominated. However, qualification showed this Italian side still has issues.

Italy had its chance to qualify directly, but got thrashed by Norway 3-0 and 4-1 in two meetings. The latter scoreline can be excused because Italy came in knowing it had to win by nine to top the group thanks to Norway’s massive edge on goal differential, but there was no excuse for the first rout.

That gives Northern Ireland some hope, but the Boys in Green have their own issues. The fact that this match will be played on Italian soil isn’t great for Michael O’Neill’s side. Northern Ireland fell to both Germany and Slovakia away, and they’ve won just once in five tries away from Belfast. Here’s a look at the best bets for Italy vs. Northern Ireland on Thursday.

Italy vs. Northern Ireland Prediction

Best Bet: Italy and Under 3.5 Goals (9/10)

Italy’s defense has melted down at times during qualifying. But except for Norway, when Italy was trying to put up a massive scoreline and left itself open, none of those meltdowns happened away from home. On Italian soil, the Azzurri conceded four times — all to Norway. The other three matches were won to nil, and this projects similarly.

When he’s on his game, Gianluigi Donnarumma is one of the world’s best goalkeepers. It usually takes something like an Erling Haaland to get the better of him, and that type of scorer isn’t on Northern Ireland’s roster. Italy can afford to be patient and wait for its opportunities to come, knowing what it has behind it.

Northern Ireland isn’t likely to press the issue. The Boys in Green would probably rather take their chances with a penalty shootout if necessary. They’re only going to come out and press if Italy forces them with an early goal.

With Italy winning two of its four home qualifiers by under 3.5 goals, and this offering better odds than a win to nil bet (8/10), this makes the most sense.

Italy vs. Northern Ireland Same Game Parlay

Italy ML

Under 2.5 Goals

Italy 2-0

Northern Ireland’s past four matches have ended with one team failing to score, and all four have seen under 2.5 goals. The Northern Irish are often content to try to grind things out, which doesn’t work to their benefit either on the road or against stronger sides.

Italy will likely find the first goal early in the second half, then find a second as Northern Ireland is forced to chase the match. As long as the second goal doesn’t come too early, this correct score (19/4) has a good chance to occur.