Best Bets for Tuesday’s Champions League: Can City Overturn It?

The second leg of the Champions League’s Round of 16 sees three English sides in very different situations. Arsenal’s in the best spot of the three, primed to advance after taking home a goal from Bayer Leverkusen. Kai Havertz’s kick from the spot gave the Gunners a deserved draw at the BayArena, and all they need is a win of any kind to advance.

Chelsea and Manchester City have a much tougher task. Both sides took a three-goal loss in the first leg, Chelsea by 5-2 to Paris Saint-Germain and City by 3-0 at Real Madrid. Even though they’re at home for the second leg, they’ll have to chase the match from the word go.

That alters the strategy on the touchline, and it alters the strategy at the sportsbook. Here’s a look at some of the best bets for Tuesday’s Champions League slate.

Arsenal and Over 2.5 Goals (6/7)

Arsenal honestly deserved more from the first leg. The Gunners pressed the issue regularly at Leverkusen, and they were unlucky to have waited as long as they did for Havertz’s goal. They should be back on track at the Emirates, and Leverkusen will have a tough task getting them off their game.

Arsenal have found the net three times or more on six occasions in this competition, and the Gunners have 24 goals in nine Champions League matches. Although Leverkusen might play cautiously at first, that goes out the window as soon as Arsenal finds a goal.

Given the Gunners’ prowess at home, that’s likely to come sooner rather than later. In three of four Champions League matches at the Emirates, Arsenal opened the scoring before the first half-hour expired. If that happens again, Arsenal won’t need any help getting to three goals.

Even though an Arsenal win and both teams to score carries a higher payout at 11/5, this seems the sensible play. Arsenal has three home clean sheets, and Leverkusen’s desperation should open them up for further Arsenal scoring.

Chelsea and BTTS (11/5)

Chelsea’s form at Stamford Bridge in the Champions League has been stellar. They’ve won all four matches and outscored opponents 10-1. But that might not hold here, for two reasons.

First, the Blues played a fairly weak home slate in the league stage. Out of four home matches, only Barcelona came from a top-four league. The rest of the slate included Ajax, Benfica and Pafos of Cyprus. Paris Saint-Germain represents a large step up from that group. The Blues have conceded in four straight at Stamford Bridge against Premier League opposition, and PSG is more in line with that level of opponent.

Second, Chelsea has to chase the match after a 5-2 loss in Paris. That scoreline was harsher than it should have been; PSG scored two insurance markers in the final 10 minutes. But that’s no help to Chelsea. The Blues must press the issue now, and the visitors can take full advantage.

With a low-scoring win useless to Chelsea, PSG won’t worry about the scoreline much as long as it finds a marker. Chelsea’s recent defensive lapses suggest that will happen.

Manchester City and BTTS (7/5)

Like with Chelsea, City face a daunting task. The Sky Blues won this fixture by a 2-1 score in the league stage, but Real Madrid hit City for three quick goals in leg one, forcing desperation from Pep Guardiola’s side.

City is good enough to overturn that scoreline. But Real has only failed to score once in 11 Champions League matches this year. A wide open match won’t bother the visitors a bit; five of their past six UCL matches have seen at least three goals scored.

With City opening itself up for a counter, Real should be able to find the net. That’s a typical outcome for these sides anyway; five of the past six meetings have seen both sides score. That should not change here.