UFC 282: Betting Odds, Analysis, Promos for Main Card and Prelims

Written By Ben Fowlkes on December 9, 2022 - Last Updated on December 11, 2022
ufc 282

The final UFC pay-per-view event of 2022 features a last minute change for the newly vacant light heavyweight title, but also some intriguing matchups on the undercard. Here’s what to expect from the Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev main event, as well as some breakdowns for other intriguing action on the UFC 282 odds board. This PPV takes place in Las Vegas, Nevada.

First off, however, a look at the best odds and offers from some of the major sportsbooks. Click on any of the odds below to navigate to the sportsbook with the best available price.

UFC 282 Odds For Entire Card

Main Card

Jan Blachowicz ()  vs. Magomed Ankalaev ()

Paddy Pimblett () vs. Jared Gordon ()

Alex Morono () vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio ()

Darren Till () vs. Dricus du Plessis ()

Bryce Mitchell () vs. Ilia Topuria ()

Prelims

Jairzinho Rozenstruik () vs. Chris Daukaus ()

Raul Rosas Jr. () vs. Jay Perrin ()

Edmen Shahbazyan () vs. Dalcha Lungiambula ()

Chris Curtis () vs. Joaquim Buckley ()

Early Prelims

Billy Quarantillo () vs. Alexander Hernandez ()

T.J. Brown () vs. Erick Silva ()

Vinicius Salvador (-245) vs. Daniel da Silva (+205)

Cameron Saaiman () vs. Steven Koslow ()

UFC 282 Main Event Preview

There’s a reason Magomed Ankalaev is a solid favorite in this fight for the vacant UFC 205-pound title, and it has as much to do with his strengths as it does Jan Blachowicz’s weaknesses. Ever since he showed up in the UFC in 2018, the word around Ankalaev was that he was a future champ, the next great fighter to come out of Dagestan (or perhaps the next next one, after Islam Makhachev), and it was only a matter of time before he took over the division.

Here his title shot is coming sooner than expected due to reigning champ Jiri Prochazka’s debilitating shoulder injury that knocked him out of his planned rematch with former champ Glover Teixeira on this card. Now Ankalaev gets to fight for the vacant belt, and it’s another former champ – the 39-year-old Blachowicz – who’s standing in his way.

Ankalaev is younger and faster, with more weapons at his disposal and less wear and tear on his body. That said, the fight is not unwinnable for Blachowicz. He’s a crafty veteran who’s been in more big fights and has surprised plenty of others with his power. Chances are, though, that if he doesn’t get to Ankalaev early he won’t get to him at all.

What Ankalaev needs to do is control the range in this fight. He wins if it’s a wrestling match, and probably also wins if it’s a close-in striking affair. Where he doesn’t want to hang out is at kicking range with Blachowicz. The smart play is to mix up the striking with the takedowns early, make Blachowicz spend most of the first round struggling to keep up and stay upright, then wear on him until the former champ starts to slow in the later rounds.

A late TKO victory for Ankalaev, possibly in the third or fourth round, seems like a strong possibility. Blachowicz’s best chance is to land a big shot in the first round, but he’ll need some help from Ankalaev to create the opening.

UFC 282 Co-Main Event Preview

This is where things really get interesting on the UFC 282 odds board, especially for bettors who’ve been looking for the right time to fade Paddy Pimblett. The young Scouser has lots of hype and a strong fan base, this is true. He also has some major holes in his game, and it seems like only a matter of time before he takes a tumble in the UFC.

So far matchmakers have done a good job of setting him up for success, and they’re not exactly throwing him to the wolves here. The way the UFC sees it, Jared Gordon is here to lose and keep the Pimblett hype train rolling. He was specifically selected for this fight due to his likelihood to do just that. But he’s not a bad fighter, and his losses all come against much better competition than any Pimblett has faced. So is this the time to finally bet on Pimblett’s bubble to burst? Quite possibly. At -250, the lad is definitely overvalued here.

Other Main Card Bouts

Alex Morono vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Morono is a very late replacement for the injured Robbie Lawler here. He’s done surprisingly strong work in that capacity before, but this is a much tougher matchup for him. Ponzinibbio may be sitting on two straight losses, but they were both split-decisions against better competition than anyone Morono has been up against lately. Morono is a tough guy and dangerous early, especially for slow starters, but this ought to be Ponzinibbio’s night.

Darren Till vs. Dricus du Plessis

For the last year or two Till has been … troubled. Injuries. Training mishaps. And then there are the losses – four out of his last five, dating back to his premature title shot in 2018. All of which is to say, Till desperately needs a win here. But DDP is actually very, very good, even if his rise through the UFC ranks has been relatively quiet. The hope may be that this will be the fight to change that. Till swears he’s fit and ready, and certainly he’s hungry – maybe even starving – for a win. But this is a tough person to have to go out there and get it against, and I can’t say I like Till’s chances.

Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria

This might be the most interesting fight on the card, as well as the toughest one to call. It’s a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup, but a much more well-rounded version than what we used to see in the early days of the UFC. Mitchell wants this on the mat. Topuria wants to stand at distance and kick him in the body until his organs give out. The big question for me is, what happens to Topuria’s terrifying kicking game if he has to worry about Mitchell snatching his leg out of the air and using it to haul him down? I still favor Topuria here, but not by much.

Prelim Parlay Options

If you’re into looking further down the card for picks, it’s worth considering some combination of the following fighters: Edmen Shahbazyan, Raul Rosas Jr., Jairzinho Rozenstruik. 

The first two are young talents the UFC would like to see develop into something, and the matchmaking here was designed to give them the chance to do just that. As for Rozenstruik, he’ll probably never be a very polished fighter but he hits extremely hard and he’s fighting a guy with some known vulnerabilities in that area.

How to Watch UFC 282

Early prelims on UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+, 6 p.m. ET

Prelims on ESPN 2 & ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET

Main card on ESPN+ pay-per-view, 10 p.m.

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Ben Fowlkes Avatar
Written by
Ben Fowlkes

Ben Fowlkes has been a sportswriter for over 15 years, writing for outlets such as USA Today, The Athletic, Sports Illustrated, and others. For many years he specialized in combat sports coverage, and he served as president of the MMA Journalists Association. He's also a published fiction writer whose work has appeared in Best American Short Stories, among other places.

View all posts by Ben Fowlkes