The Super Bowl isn’t the only big sporting event on tap for the weekend. UFC 271 will happen on Saturday, Feb. 12. The Main Event, a middleweight title fight between Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker, promises to deliver an exciting stand-up affair between technical and powerful strikers. What do the UFC 271 odds say about this anticipated rematch and the rest of the fights on the card?
Read on for a breakdown and a look at another exciting scrap in the co-main, pitting longtime heavyweight contender Derrick Lewis against rising star Tai Tuivasa.
UFC 271 Sportsbook Promos
UFC 271 Odds For Entire Card
- Israel Adesanya () vs. Robert Whittaker () — Middleweight title bout
- Derrick Lewis () vs. Tai Tuivasa ()
- Jared Cannonier () vs. Derek Brunson ()
- Kyler Phillips () vs. Marcelo Rojo ()
- Bobby Green () vs. Nasrat Haqparast ()
- Andrei Arlovski () vs. Jared Vanderaa ()
- Casey O’Neill () vs. Roxanne Modafferi ()
- Alex Perez () vs. Matt Schnell ()
- Maxim Grishin () vs. William Knight ()
- Ronnie Lawrence () vs. Mana Martinez ()
- Renato Moicano () vs. Alexander Hernandez ()
- Carlos Ulberg () vs. Fabio Cherant ()
- AJ Dobson () vs. Jacob Malkoun ()
- Sergey Morozov () vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade ()
- Jeremiah Wells () vs. Mike Diamond ()
UFC 271 Main Event Preview
The first place to look when handicapping UFC 271 odds for the main event is obviously Oct. 6, 2019. That’s when these two met for the first time, with Adesanya taking the belt via second-round strikes.
The biggest thing that stood out in that fight was the difficulty Whittaker had landing power strikes. He relied on a lot of lunging punches as he seemed flummoxed by the reach and speed of Adesanya. Without an ability to plant his feet and throw, he couldn’t land anything to seriously concern his opponent.
Whittaker does not seem to have the technique in terms of footwork that allows him to close distance and corral rangier fighters. The same issue cropped up in his October 2020 fight with Jared Cannonier, another longer fighter, even though Whittaker won by a pretty easy decision.
So, it seems unlikely this has been shored up, particularly considering Whittaker is almost 30 fights into his pro career. He probably is what he is at this point — a solid striker with some brawling tendencies.
With Adesanya remaining squarely in his prime at 32 — a year older than Whittaker — he probably hasn’t slowed down enough to allow Whittaker to easily get into range.
The wild card could be Whittaker’s wrestling. He didn’t use it in their first fight but he has some grappling credentials and we just saw Jan Blachowicz take an easy decision over Adesanya via top control when Adesanya tried challenging up in weight.
However, it’s not a skill he has utilized often and the 34% success rate the company’s official stats give him credit for suggest that’s for good reason.
Props And Rounds Betting For Adesanaya Vs. Whittaker 2
The market says we’re headed for a decision, and frankly, it’s hard to argue.
Consider that despite these two having reps as big-time strikers, neither is really much of a knockout artist. Whittaker’s last five wins have come via decision. And While Adesanya finished him with strikes, he also has more decision wins than finishes at the highest level.
If Whittaker can’t get to the inside and force trading of strikes, he’ll just be throwing more mostly ineffectual lunging prayers. Adesanya has not seemed that interested in trading bombs, preferring to cruise to clear decision wins.
The markets have Adesanya knockout and decision props pretty close, but a decision win looks a good bit more likely. Available at +170 on Tuesday at FanDuel Sportsbook, that’s worth a play if you don’t want to lay big juice on the champ.
Fight length props via DraftKings Sportsbook:
UFC 271 Co-Main Event Preview
Two heavyweight bombers among UFC 271 odds should provide an entertaining fireworks show in advance of the title fight. Hometown legend Derrick Lewis will have the support of the Houston crowd but he has a dangerous opponent in Australia’s Tai Tuivasa.
What makes this fight interesting is both fighters somewhat play into the other’s style. Lewis has monster power but prefers not to have to move his feet much or grapple. Tuivasa will bring the fight to him with an aggressive stand-up attack but has never shot for a single takedown in the UFC.
Lewis will present an inviting target for Tuivasa’s solid kicking game. “Black Beast” has been notoriously awful at checking kicks at times, which cost him big time when Ciryl Gane routed him last August in a volume-based TKO. His general passivity has allowed several opponents to pepper him with strikes and build up leads.
Tuivasa’s offense is excellent but he has not shown great defense, getting tagged and hurt by even the likes of Greg Hardy. Game plan will be critical here. If he starts trading early, he is at heavy risk of going to sleep. Lewis probably won’t need much of a follow-up like some of Tuivasa’s other opponents.
However, there is a clear path to a Tuivasa victory. Hammer Lewis with kicks to soften him up and let his poor cardio drain. When Lewis gets tired, he has shown himself susceptible to finishes. Everyone loves his KO power but Lewis himself has been finished five times by strikes in the UFC. His record against fighters with good power and technique on the feet is spotty at best.
A former pro boxer, Tuivasa has the footwork and the technique to outduel Lewis at his own game. At solid plus money, he looks like the value side to this author.
How To Watch UFC 271
- Early prelims: 6 p.m. EST on UFC Fight Pass or ESPN+
- Prelims: 8 p.m. EST on ESPN or ESPN+
- Main card: 10 p.m. EST on ESPN+ ($74.99)