UFC 270: Betting Lines And Main Event Preview For Ngannou Vs. Gane

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on January 20, 2022
UFC 270 odds

After a lengthy break from the spotlight, the UFC returns Saturday with one of the more highly anticipated title fights in recent memory. UFC 270 odds for the main event pit heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou as a bit of a surprising underdog against fast-rising undefeated contender Ciryl Gane.

What do the UFC 270 odds have to say about that matchup and others on the card? We’ll take a look at all of the main markets with an extra dive on the two title fights.

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UFC 270 Odds For Entire Card

Main Card

  • Cyril Gane () vs. Francis Ngannou () – Heavyweight Title Bout
  • Brandon Moreno () vs. Deiveson Figueiredo () – Flyweight Title Bout
  • Michel Pereira () vs. Andre Fialho ()
  • Said Nurmagomedov () vs. Cody Stamann ()
  • Rodolfo Vieira () vs. Wellington Turman ()

Prelims

  • Raoni Barcelos () vs. Victor Henry ()
  • Ilya Topuria () vs. Charles Jourdain ()
  • Jack Della Maddalena () vs. Pete Rodriguez ()
  • Michael Morales () vs. Trevin Giles ()

Early Prelims

  • Tony Gravely () vs. Saimon Oliveira ()
  • Vanessa Demopoulos () vs. Silvana Juarez ()
  • Matt Frevola () vs. Gennaro Valdez ()
  • Kay Hansen () vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius ()

UFC 270 Main Event Preview

If Francis Ngannou from a few years ago showed up for this fight, he would have nothing more than a haymaker’s chance of coming out victorious against Ciryl Gane.

The first time he fought Stipe Miocic, he was a wild puncher with poor cardio and striking fundamentals.

Last year for the rematch, he returned a changed man. His fundamentals and movement had improved tremendously. He attacked with a calm approach and a tucked chin. He dropped Miocic with a beautiful straight punch and finished with a controlled burst of a follow-up.

However, he faces probably his toughest challenge yet in Gane. Gane brings a combination of technical proficiency, athleticism and cardio that’s unmatched among heavyweights.

That can help him target one of the remaining question marks in Ngannou’s game: his ability to carry on his finishing ability deeper into the fight. Of Ngannou’s last seven KOs, six have come in the first round. He’s never finished anyone after Round 2.

Gane has his own weak points. He hasn’t shown a great amount of power, with just 0.28 knockdowns per 15 according to the UFC’s official stats. That’s tiny for a heavyweight whose strength comes on the feet. Furthermore, he fails to protect his chin, either through movement or positioning. He often attacks with his chin out and unmoving.

Though Gane has shown some chops as a grappler, it seems quite unlikely to play a role here. His takedown success rate is low, and with the reach disadvantage, he figures to be on the outside looking for ways in. A shot from afar isn’t his forte, and hanging out close to Ngannou for a clinch war seems ill-advised.

Props And Rounds Betting

Most of the influential action has come in on the undefeated Gane so far. But, if Ngannou’s improvements stick, he has a clear path to victory with his massive power against Gane’s questionable defense and near-certain willingness to strike.

The +165 offered at DraftKings for an Ngannou KO/TKO is probably extra value you’d be advised to take if you’re betting that side.

Either way, expect a finish. While Gane’s decision and KO/TKO props are similarly priced, it just seems unlikely a heavyweight striking battle is going to go five. Even with his mediocre power, up to five rounds of potential heavyweight damage accumulation should wind up stopping Ngannou at some point.

Fight length props via DraftKings Sportsbook:

RoundOverUnder
0.5-1050+600
1.5-200+160
2.5-110-120
3.5+135-165
4.5+185-245

UFC 270 Co-Main Event Preview

While the Main Event is difficult to handicap because neither fighter has quite faced someone who brings the sort of challenges his current opponent does, the other title fight on the card is tough to handicap for an entirely different reason.

Both of these fighter had a strong performance against the other, even if the record doesn’t show it.

In December 2020, Deiveson Figueiredo arguably got the raw end of a majority draw decision. He clearly won more rounds than Brandon Moreno but committed several fouls and was docked a point. Many knowledgeable observers felt he still deserved the win.

In their rematch six months later, Figueiredo turned in a bizarre, listless performance and submitted to a second-round choke.

So, which Figueiredo shows up? As a decent underdog with a dangerous finishing arsenal — he’s equally adept with submissions and strikes — he makes for an intriguing long shot in the props markets. Moreno has never been finished, but so a submission that he can’t tough his way out of looks potentially lucrative at +800 on DK Sportsbook.

The most likely scenario is probably a Moreno decision, but the markets reflect that so there’s not much value if any.

How To Watch UFC 270

  • Early prelims: 6:15 p.m. EST on UFC Fight Pass  or ESPN+
  • Prelims: 8 p.m. EST on ESPN2 or ESPN+
  • Main card: 10 p.m. EST on ESPN+ ($74.99)

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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