UFC 268 Odds: The Octagon Returns To Madison Square Garden

Written By Dave Bontempo on November 1, 2021 - Last Updated on November 5, 2021

The countdown to UFC 268 poses two stark betting questions before Saturday’s Madison Square Garden card in New York City. Can the underdogs do it again? Or will the chalk walk the walk? That’s the storyline for UFC 268 odds.

Underdog bettors may be flush after backing a blazing UFC 267 upset by Glover Teixeira against Jan Blachowicz on Saturday.

But this week, backers of the favorite point to a formidable presence. Kamaru Usman is the UFC’s top pound-for-pound male fighter before defending his welterweight championship at against a man he’s already beaten, Colby Covington().

The co-main between Rose Namajunas () and Zhang Weili () features the third and fourth-ranked UFC female combatants.

Namajunas toppled Weili in one round to win the strawweight championship in April. Both highly-regarded fighters have gained betting support and the roles of favorite and underdog have flip-flopped in lively sportsbook wagering.

Bettors may have a fall feast with these two matchups alone.

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UFC 268 Odds: Main Event Odds

Moneyline For Welterweight Title Bout

Method of Victory Odds

How will the fight end?

(Eastern Time)
Usman KO/TKO
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Usman Points
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Usman Submission
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Covington KO/TKO
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Covington Points
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Covington Submission
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Big money greets bettors who can nail an exact finishing scenario. They range from +600 for an Usman stoppage in Round 1 to +3400 should Covington secure a victory in the final round. Should Usman deliver the same result of their first fight, a fifth-round KO/TKO, it would pay + 2100. Final-round KOs/TKOs always pay substantially because the bettors must wait out 20 minutes without a stoppage and then gain one in the last five-minute window.

Bettors who play the angle that Usman knows he can break Covington down and perhaps win earlier gain +1000 for a third-round victory and +1400 for a fourth-round KO/TKO.

If nailing a precise finishing round appears too difficult, bettors can consider “How the Fight Will End” at FanDuel. The bout to end in any KO/TKO is +100. A points verdict is +100. A submission verdict is +800. The tradeoff: the bet pays far less than other props, but gives the bettors action on both fighters.

Usman vs Covington History

The first bout was thrilling, and possibly conclusive. Covingon started quickly with leg strikes before Usman rattled the southpaw with lead straight right hands. Usman delivered two final-round knockdowns against a gassed Covington and began pounding him on the ground, causing the stoppage.

Through four rounds, the fight was scored a draw. Usman was en route to prevailing by decision with a big fifth round until he delivered the stoppage with 50 seconds left. That produced some handsome method-of-victory payments for bettors who wagered on a final-round verdict. It also produced the impression that Usman can break Covington down again.

As far as recent form, Covington has been off for over a year. His last performance was a September 2020 triumph over Tyron Woodley. Usman secured a KO/TKO over Jorge Masvidal in April.

UFC 268 Odds: Co-Main Event Odds

Moneyline For Women’s Strawweight Title Bout

Namajunas vs Weili Analysis

Early in the week, it was an excellent line-shopping experience for bettors. DraftKings had Namajunas as the favorite. FanDuel had Weili out in front. Based on these two betting lines, gamblers were guaranteed a good price, depending on which book they selected.

The Weili betting sentiment appears to be bettors are not convinced. Namajunas won the first encounter in exquisite fashion. She landed a perfect, and improbable head kick to Zhang barely a minute into the fight. It looked like a feeling-out round, both fighters measuring their distance and then BANG. Namajunas connected to floor Weili.

Before Weili could recover, Namajunas began ground-pounding and the contest was stopped. It was the first loss for Weili since 2013. She had been -200 across major sportsbooks. Her backers now have a playable moneyline, gambling into more attractive odds.

The Namajunas betting sentiment appears to be a rematch equals repeat.  Yes, these are not the +170 odds of the first fight, but shoppers are getting her at close to even money. There’s no need to be laying juice. Wait for the right price and take it.

The reasoning behind Namajunas is the expectation of confidence that will come from her defeat of Weili. It was a ferocious kick, and a beauty. Sometimes, one fighter simply has another’s number. For bettors, the numbers are good regardless of where they go.

As far as common opponents,  Namajunas had a KO loss and split-decision triumph against Jessica Andrade, who was beaten in one round by Weili.

Rest Of Main Card Odds

Lightweight Bout: No. 2 Justin Gaethje vs. No. 4 Michael Chandler

Featherweight Bout: No. 14 Shane Burgos vs. Billy Quarantillo

Bantamweight Bout: No. 13 Marlon Vera vs. No. 8 Frankie Edgar

UFC 268 Odds: Prelims

Alex Pereira vs Andreas Michailidis

Bobby Green vs Al Iaquinta

Phil Hawes vs Chris Curtis

Nassourdine Imavov v s Edmen Shahbazyan

How To Watch UFC 268

When: Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021

Early prelims: UFC Fight pass 6 p.m. ET

Prelims: 8 p.m. ESPN News or ESPN+

Main card: 10 p.m. Order pay-per-view on ESPN+ ($69.99)

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Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo, who writes extensively on the emergence of legalized sports betting, is a recipient of the Sam Taub Award for Broadcast Excellence by the Boxing Writers Association of America. He has broadcast boxing for all the major networks over the last four decades and is a member of the New Jersey Boxing Hall of Fame as well as the Atlantic City Boxing Hall of Fame. His work also can be seen at the Press of Atlantic City and iGamingPlayer.

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