UFC 265: Betting Lines And Main Event Preview For Lewis Vs. Gane

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on August 6, 2021 - Last Updated on August 8, 2021

It may not have the star power of UFC 264, but there is still plenty to like– and bet on– for UFC 265. Scheduled for Saturday in Houston, the card matches hometown hero Derrick Lewis with French budding star Ciryl Gane in the Main Event.

The moneyline odds say the fans will likely go home disappointed since Lewis is a underdog. Bettors can back Gane at .

Let’s take a look at the betting odds across the card and preview the Main Event. Whatever you decide to wager on, make sure you check out the list of UFC 265 promos compiled by TheLines in case you qualify for some added value.

UFC 265 Betting Lines

Main Card

  • Ciryl Gane () vs. Derrick Lewis ()
  • Jose Aldo () vs. Pedro Munhoz ()
  • Vicente Luque () vs. Michael Chiesa ()
  • Tecia Torries ( vs. Angela Hill ()
  • Casey Kenney () vs. Song Yadong ()

Prelims

  • Rafael Fiziev () vs. Bobby Green ()
  • Drako Rodriguez () vs. Vince Morales ()
  • Alonzo Menifield () vs. Ed Herman ()
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz () vs. Jessica Penne ()

Early Prelims

  • Manel Kape () vs. Ode’ Osbourne ()
  • Miles Johns () vs. Anderson Dos Santos ()
  • Victoria Leonardo () vs. Melissa Gato ()
  • Johnny Munoz vs. Jamey Simmons

UFC 265 Main Event Preview

Lewis and Gane meet for the interim heavyweight title and a likely showdown with Francis Ngannou. According to the markets Gane has the edge, but which fighter represents the greater betting value?

Gane certainly has shown good reason for the hype in building a 9-0 pro record. For a heavyweight, he stays shockingly light on his feet when engaged in the striking game. He really bounces around, fires punches and kicks from all angles while doing excellent work dodging return strikes. He’ll enjoy a slight reach advantage versus Lewis, which bodes well for this style of attack.

According to the official stats, he far outpaces Lewis with 5.13 to 2.59 strikes landed per minute in their UFC careers. That output will be key for judges.

Furthermore, Lewis has shown he can be victimized by patient strikers at distance. While he recovered to win by late KO, he fell well behind Alexander Volkov through two rounds. Gane outpointed Volkov on the feet fairly comfortably when they fought earlier this year.

Gane does have some defensive concerns, however. He tends not to tuck his chin, which could represent a major liability against a big puncher like Lewis. “Black Beast” doesn’t need much of an opening and his power doesn’t fade at all– he has twice as many KOs in Rounds Two and Three in the UFC compared to Round One.

Lewis has finished 20 of his 25 pro wins by (T)KO and he’s +400 to finish Gane with strikes. If you’re betting Lewis, you should likely get at least a token amount on the KO prop.

Check out TheLines Podcast Episode 177 for a full betting breakdown and picks for UFC 265.

More Props And Other Markets

When two heavyweights go to war, especially when a huge hitter like Lewis is involved, things are generally expected to end fairly early. However, that’s not necessarily the case this time around as the round props at DraftKings Sportsbook say the fighters likely see the latter half of round three:

RoundOverUnder
0.5-950+550
1.5-210+165
2.5-125-105
3.5+120-150
4.5+160-200

There’s even a fair shot of seeing the final bell, as DK Sportsbook lists fight going the distance at +165.

Gane tends to rely on volume striking and has not demonstrated great finishing power. Furthermore, despite his highlight reel finishes, Lewis has gone the distance several times, albeit in three-round fights. While Gane is favored to win by finish if he does win (+130 by KO), a Gane decision prop at +200 may hold more value.

If you want to get even a little crazier, Gane has shown some submission skills with three subs in his nine wins. Lewis is a poor grappler with only 44% takedown defense and submitted fairly quickly to Daniel Cormier when he took the fight to the ground. Gane by submission is +650 on DK Sportsbook.

How To Watch UFC 265

  • Early prelims: 6 p.m. EDT on UFC Fight Pass or ESPN+
  • Prelims: 8 p.m. EDT on ESPN or ESPN+
  • Main card: 10 p.m. EDT on ESPN+ ($69.99)

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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