Marvin Vettori says revenge will be served, but UFC 263 bets on him have not been placed in big numbers for the June 12 pay-per-view in Glendale, AZ. Vettori is a decided main-event underdog at major sportsbooks, as he tries avenge a 2018 split-decision loss to Israel Adesanya, who now holds the middleweight title.
Adesanya has been the definition of chalk, with odds to win the fight currently at -250.
In the co-main event, Deiveson Figueiredo is a clear favorite against Brandon Moreno, as they rematch their sizzling 2020 title-fight draw.
How to Watch UFC 263
Early Prelims: 6 p.m. UFC Fight Pass
Prelims: 8 p.m. ESPN or ESPN+
Main Card: 10 p.m., $69.99 on ESPN+ PPV
UFC 263 Betting Guide
Israel Adesanya -250 vs Marvin Vettori, (Middleweight Title Bout)
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno (Flyweight Title Bout)
Rest of Main Card
Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz
Belal Muhammad vs Demian Maia
Jamahal Hill vs Paul Craig
Drew Dober vs Brad Riddell
Eryk Anders vs Darren Stewart
Joanne Calderwood vs Lauren Murphy
UFC 263 Bets: Main Event Betting Preview
Both combatants have improved since their first fight, a three-rounder. Vettori has won five straight, including two five-round decisions. He will need that stamina for this, a five-round fight. Adesanya stopped Paulo Costa and Robert Whittaker, the No. 1 and No. 2 contenders, in recent fights. Vettori is No. 3.
The outlines of the 2018 matchup were stark. Adesanya made Vettori pay to get near him by landing solid inside leg kicks and inside uppercuts. He controlled the inside game and looked more comfortable boxing in the first two rounds.
Vettori found his meal ticket in round 3, going to the ground. He won that round as clearly as he lost the others, with the final scores reading 29-28 twice for Adesanya, 29-28 once for Vettori.
What happens when they extend to five rounds?
Is there an emotional aftershock from Adesanya’s last fight? He suffered a career-first setback to Jan Blachowicz. Yes, he was moving up to the light-heavyweight ranks and did not risk his middleweight title, but he lost as a favorite.
Vettori is a price. Split decision loss, you might figure +140, +150 in the rematch, not +225. A Vettori backer will jump on these odds. Adesanya bettors must seek props, maybe a method of victory.
FanDuel Sportsbook has Adesanya by points at +155, and KO/TKO at +175.
Vettori bettors might consider a prop-bet stab. His best work in the first fight was on the ground. He’ll try and get the fight there again. If Vettori wins, it might be on the ground. Submission is +1000.
Intangibles: Adesanya has a six-inch reach advantage. That can help him keep Vettori on the outside.
UFC 263 Bets: Co-Main Event Betting Preview
Figueiredo (137) and Moreno (132) combined for 269 significant strikes landed, a single-fight record for a UFC flyweight fight. UFC president Dana White called it the greatest flyweight fight in UFC history.
It was only the fourth draw in a UFC title bout. Most sportsbooks treat draws as voiding all bets.
This fight was a majority draw, enabling Figueiredo to keep this title. Two cards were even, one had Figueiredo up a point. He lost a point for a groin kick in round three. Moreno fought through a shoulder injury in the fight. Is he right?
Where’s the Value?
As far as betting opportunity, rematches rarely produce the exact same results. FanDuel has odds for a KO/TKO at +170 for the co-main event and +135 for the main event.
In the main event, you are giving yourself two more rounds to work with compared to the first fight with this bet. And with Adesanya coming off his first loss in a nine-year career, is he more aggressive? Does he have something to prove?
See where the late money goes on the dogs this week. Based on the original fights, I would have put them in the +150 range. Not sure yet if I’ll pull the trigger on them, but they merit a look.