UFC 259 is loaded card with plenty of bettable fights. Here we will look at UFC 259 odds, and provide a betting preview of the big MMA event.
Big names at the top of the card and big parity at the bottom create a world of wagering activity from the Apex in Las Vegas.
Amanda Nunes, the Brazilian Buzz Saw, is an overwhelming chalk against Megan Anderson in a featherweight title bout. Nunes is far and away the most compelling female fighter currently on the UFC circuit.
The main event has intrigue with UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya trying to annex the light-heavyweight championship belt from defending titleholder Jan Blachowicz. Adesanya is a decided favorite despite moving up a weight class.
Newly-crowned bantamweight champion Petr Yan battles No. 1 contender Aljamain Sterling in a fight that is bettable on the moneyline from both sides.
In the prelims, there are three fights that represent excellent value for either fighter on the moneyline.
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UFC 259 odds
A look at UFC 259 odds for the March 6 event in Las Vegas.
- Israel Adesanya -260 versus Jan Blachowicz +215
- Amanda Nunes -1200 versus Megan Anderson +750
- Petr Yan -136 versus Aljamain Sterling +116
- Islam Makhachev -350 versus Drew Dober +280
- Aleksandar Rakic -174 versus Thiago Santos +146
- Casey Kenney -126 versus Dominick Cruz +108
- Song Yadong -184 versus Kyler Phillips +154
- Askar Askarov -116 versus Joseph Benavidez -102
- Tim Elliott -116 versus Jordan Espinosa -102
- Carlos Ulberg -190 versus Kennedy Nzechukwu +160
Why you like him: He’s a machine, unbeaten in a career that goes back to 2012. He’s the UFC’s third-ranked pound-for-pound fighter behind Khabib Nurmagomedov and Jon Jones. He is one of the best strikers in the UFC and comes off a dominating performance against Paulo Costa in September.
Why you don’t: He’s expensive and will need significant Blachowicz money to move the odds down to the -250 range for big-bettor enticement.
Betting value: Try to nail an exact method of victory prop, which will be posted closer to fight time.
Why you like him: Fighters often improve right after winning a title. It’s a bit surprising that Adesanya’s move to light-heavyweight class has not made more of an impact on the odds. Adesanya coming up is an edge to Blachowicz. He’s also a great price.
Why you don’t: He’s 38. Bettors never know when a fighter will get old in the ring.
Betting value: Take a moneyline bet and protect it with a how-the-fight-will-end prop when it goes up. Nailing the TKO/K0, Submission or Decision method provides a win from either fighter if the method is correct.
Why you like her: She’s a terrific fighter, towers above the female fight world and brings a Floyd Mayweather or Conor McGregor-type feel to a card.
Why you can’t like her: Minus 1250 is exorbitant. She has become the UFC version of Tesla, the stock that has jumped from $70 to over $900 in one year. Nunes was actually an underdog at one point in her career. A tip of the hat to anyone who pocketed the +240 she returned with a 2016 triumph of Ronda Rousey and +230 versus Cris Cyborg in 2018. But her odds took off like a rocket. From plus numbers to -1250. She opened at -1000 for this fight, but that did not discourage her backers. They bet the number up.
Betting value: Nail a method or a K0/TKO round. Also keep an eye out for sportsbook specials. Some new-user enticements in recent fights included dropping her to even-money. For bettors, that was like stealing.
Why you like her: Aggression. Her last four fights have ended in the first round. If Nunes matches that energy, and she usually does, bettors can wager an exact KO/TKO round with more confidence.
Why you can’t like her: One word – Nunes.
Betting value: Method of victory prop, and of course the moneyline if you like her.
Why you like him: He has the confidence of making his first title defense. Yan captured the bantamweight championship with a TKO victory over Jose Aldo in his last fight.
Why you don’t like him: Decent, but not a great price.
Betting value: Hope for the moneyline odds to come down a little. Otherwise, if you are comfortable laying the equivalent of 7-5 betting odds, take the shot.
Why you like him: Decent price at +116. Indicates competitiveness. He’s the number-one contender and has won his last five.
Why you don’t like him: Toughest test in a long time. He’s facing a champion.
Betting value: Moneyline.
Great undercard betting value
With the Kenney, Askarov and Elliott fights, the initial bet is simple. Take the moneyline at square odds and don’t get too complicated. These are 50-50 type fights with roughly even-money return, carrying the same risk-reward ratio of sports like the NFL, NBA and NHL.
These bets are comfortable territory for the gamblers.
Undercard flip of the coin fights
- Kenney’s recent form is 9-1 with seven decisions.
- Cruz is a former bantamweight champion and has fought at a higher level. But after a three-and-a-half-year layoff, he was stopped by Henry Cejudo last May.
- Askarov is unbeaten. He had four wins by submission before his last three fights went the distance.
- Benavidez suffered two straight losses to Deiveson Figueiredo, the current UFC flyweight champion, but has fought better competition overall. Which direction is his career heading?
- Both Elliott and Espinosa have lost three of four and are evenly matched.
How to watch
- Early Prelims 6 p.m. (Fight Pass)
- Prelims 8 p.m. (ESPN and ESPN+)
- Main Card 10 p.m. (Purchase on ESPN+)