UFC 258 Betting Market: Subtle Line Movement For Maycee Barber Versus Alexa Grasso

Posted By Dave Bontempo on February 13, 2021 - Last Updated on February 14, 2021
UFC 258 odds Maycee Barber Alexa Grasso pics

UFC 258 dawns, with the final countdown to Saturday’s card from Las Vegas.

What’s different than last week, when bettors placed initial wagers?

While main event odds have barely shifted, the co-main saw some line movement and four fights were added to the card. Also, meaningful sportsbook promos emerged.

Sportsbook offers

New DraftKings Sportsbook users can Bet $1 and win $100 on the main event. To take advantage of this offer from Draftkings go here.

FanDuel has parlay insurance up to $25 and great odds boosts offers. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook here to opt-in.

UFC 258 odds

DraftKings Sportsbook odds for UFC 258:

  • Kamaru Usman -265 vs Gilbert Burns +215
  • Alexa Grasso -124 vs Maycee Barber +100
  • Kelvin Gastelum -225 vs Ian Heinisch +175
  • Julian Marquez -177 vs Maki Pitolo +145
  • Rodolfo Vieira -500 vs Anthony Hernandez +335
  • Belal Muhammad -455 vs Dhiego Lima +325
  • Mallory Martin -132 vs Polyana Viana Mota +105
  • Chris Gutierrez -143 vs Andre Ewell + 110

Line movement

Grasso versus Barber is an excellent betting contest, with subtle late-week money going on Barber. This has been enough to move the line on Barber from +110 to +100 at DraftKings. Grasso, initially -134, looks more attractive to her backers at -124.

  • Instead of laying nearly 7-5, her bettors put down a little bit more than 6-5. Better value.
  • Intangibles cause uncertainty with the outcome, creating interest on both sides.
  • Barber is higher ranked in the UFC, 10th, versus Grasso at 15. By that measure, Barber should be the favorite.
  • But she tore an ACL in a January 2020 loss to Roxanne Modafferi and later had surgery. How’s the mobility? Is she vulnerable? That will be answered in this fight.
  • Grasso’s fights go long. Eight of Grasso’s last nine bouts have ended in decision. Grasso comes off a victory over Ji Yeon Kim in August.
  • Barber had six in a row end by stoppage before the decision loss to Modafferi.

Do you see some chance for razzle dazzle? Or mis-direction?

FanDuel Sportsbook offers the interesting “How Fight Will End” prop. The expectation of a decision either way is paramount, -260.

Single out either fighter to win by points and it’s Grasso +105 and Barber +280. That’s a decent number for Grasso and a strong payout for Barber.

If you want to gamble on a method, and it won’t matter which fighter wins, the KO/TKO is +350 and the Submission is +600. Barber’s past inclination for short fights is an angle into betting this way.

Betting observations

DraftKings Sportsbook offer

Take the warm welcome from DraftKings Sportsbook. For new users, this one’s a big win.

Bet $1 on Usman-Burns and get $100 if your fighter lands a punch. The money appears in the account as four $25 free bets.

How it works:

  • Make a deposit of $5 or more into your sportsbook account during the promotion period. Following the deposit, place a bet of at least $1 on either fighter to win the Main Event.
  • Bet must be placed prior to the start of Usman-Burns. One punch and you’re $100 in free bets richer.
  • Free bets are valid for 7 days.
  • Naturally, the free bet is not redeemable for cash. There is one qualifying bet per user and it excludes live bets, parlays, cash-out and voided bets. This offer is good in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia.
  • The beauty of the free bets is what comes after. The $25 plays are more interesting in some ways than one $100 wager. Bettors can mix it up, perhaps taking a couple of chalks, a mid-sized dog and a longshot with the free picks.
  • Hit a couple and this promo has become a bankroll.

How about existing users?

There’s a 25% profit boost at DraftKings. A win is a win and a quarter. Following opt-in, you’ll be issued with one single-use profit boost to use in any fight. You must select the boost from your betslip before placing the bet to apply the boosted price. The 25% boost applies to the winnings.

The boost includes live bets and parlays.

It’s a max bet of $50 and a max profit of $250 additional winnings. If the boost does not appear, refresh the page or opt-in again.

This is available in Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia.

Boost your chances with Usman or Burns

FanDuel Sportsbook hiked the Usman versus Burns fight to end via KO/TKO from +135 to +160. If you like either fighter to win inside the distance, this is excellent value.

The board likes a decision verdict and indeed both fighters have a decision victory over Tyron Woodley. But the decision preference is not prohibitive. It’s -115.

What about methods for each combatant at FanDuel?

Usman

  • Points +130
  • KO/TKO +210
  • Submission +1700

Burns

  • Points +600
  • KO/TKO +800
  • Submission +800

For Usman bettors, laying more heavily on the method is more appealing than the moneyline. The tradeoff is the necessity in nailing the right method.

For Burns backers, take a flier on a method on top of your victory bet. Any victory method for him pays extraordinarily well.

As for the fight, both are in top form. Usman is the UFC’s fifth-ranked pound-for-pound fighter.

He is the UFC welterweight champion. Burns, in the new rankings, has become the No. 1 contender.

  • Usman has won 16 in a row since his only career loss in 2013.
  • Burns has won his last six.
  • Usman has a five-inch reach advantage, worthwhile from a striking position.

Betting notes on prelims

Some quick hits on UFC 258 preliminary fights.

  • Vieira is a submission machine, which the books already know in placing him at -190. He has little upside, unless you want to take a stab at a different method.
  • Muhammad’s fights have generally gone the distance.
  • Five of Viana’s last seven fights have ended via submission. So have Martin’s last two. And the submission method of victory in the fight is +240. That’s an angle.
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Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo, who writes extensively on the emergence of legalized sports betting, is a recipient of the Sam Taub Award for Broadcast Excellence by the Boxing Writers Association of America. He has broadcast boxing for all the major networks over the last four decades and is a member of the New Jersey Boxing Hall of Fame as well as the Atlantic City Boxing Hall of Fame. His work also can be seen at the Press of Atlantic City and iGamingPlayer.

View all posts by Dave Bontempo