UFC 256 dawns Saturday night with a repeat customer. Deiveson Figueiredo, the Brazilian-based flyweight champion, stayed in the United States after his Nov. 21, one-round submission triumph over Alex Perez in his first title defense. Three weeks later, he’s back – an unusually fast return. Figueiredo’s bettors will be riding the hot hand of the UFC’s 10th-ranked pound-for pound fighter. Here we look at UFC 256 odds and dish out some betting observations for Saturday’s event.
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UFC 256 odds
Here is a glance at UFC 256 odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Deiveson Figueiredo -335 vs Brandon Moreno +250
- Tony Ferguson -175 vs Charles Oliveira +140
- Rafael Fiziev -159 vs Renato Moicano +130
- Ronaldo Souza -118 vs Kevin Holland -106
- Ciryl Gane -455 vs Junior Dos Santos +333
- Daniel Pineda -159 vs Cub Swanson +127
- Mackenzie Dern -200 vs Virna Jandiroba +160
- Billy Quarantillo -167 vs Gavin Tucker +135
- Tecia Torres -500 vs Sam Hughes +355
FanDuel methods of victory for Figueiredo vs Moreno
- KO/TKO: +135
- Points: +340
- Submission: +420
- KO/TKO: +950
- Points: +750
- Submission: +850
1. The deals are still out there
It’s hard to pounce on a line movement because UFC betting patterns overall have shifted. Much of the action now comes late.
“When UFC first returned and the other core sports had not come back yet, the sharps would jump on something early in the week if they saw a soft line,” Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations at DraftKings, told TheLines. “For the most part now, we are not seeing too much early in the week, but there will be good action closer to the fight.
“The UFC continues to hold its own quite well.”
To Avello’s point, one FanDuel Sportsbook bettor wagered a sizable amount on Khabib Nurmagomedov at -225 against Justin Gaethje, two months before the October matchup. It moved above -300 during fight week and Khabib prevailed at what became an excellent price for this particular bettor.
2. Figueiredo vs Moreno: Main event intangibles
Both fighters have been active. This is Figueiredo’s fourth fight this year, Moreno’s third.
Figueiredo has won five straight since losing to Jussier Formiga in March of 2019. Moreno has a victory over Formiga, thus has an edge in recent common opponents. But that same formula applied to UFC 255, in which Perez had a win over Formiga, and Figueirido made that moot – prevailing in under two minutes.
Moreno appeared in the prelim section of 255, stopping Brandon Royval with punches with just one second left in the opening round.
3. On the move
The biggest line movement during the week came in an engaging betting battle between Ronaldo Souza and Kevin Holland. Both have minus numbers. Some late-week action on Souza moved what had been a pick-em line closer to 6-5 for him, meaning that bettors were laying close to -120 to win 100.
This is always a good moneyline consideration. There is no need to worry about distance or finishing method. Just win.
4. Land of opportunity
Good opportunity exists in the Ferguson versus Oliveira co-main. When the fighters win, they win big and enticing odds exist in nailing the method.
Oliveira is a finishing machine. His last 14 fights have ended inside the distance. And he has been a ground fighter, win or lose. At one point, nine consecutive battles ended in submission.
- Oliveira to win by submission here pays +333 at DraftKings. Ferguson’s last four fights have ended inside the distance. Recently he’s been winning by KO/TKO but submission victories are in his background.
- The prop for either fighter to win by submission at +185 is attractive. And so is the round of a victory.
- At FanDuel, Ferguson to win in the first round is +340. Round 2 is +600 and 3 is +900. For Oliveira, it’s +500 to win in the first, +1000 in the second and +1400 in the third.
While it’s always hard to isolate the exact finishing round, this is a fertile betting area because both fighters can win inside the distance.
5. Jump on those odds boosts and promos
If you want to take a pop at nailing the exact round for a good prop payout, consider stringing them together, as in Rounds 2 and 3 or 1 and 2. Slightly reduced payout, better chance to collect. This approach treats gambling as a business for the player.
- FanDuel posted an odds boost for a Ferguson KO/TKO from +260 to +320. That removes the vig and then-some from that bet.
- As mentioned above, DraftKings has a triple-winnings boost for first-time users with a max bet of $50, to be used in any fight.
- PointsBet has been known to offer excellent enticements either the day before or day of a UFC event. Many have involved taking a prohibitive favorite into the area of even money. Give PointsBet a scan before wagering.