UFC 253 is next up in the MMA world, Saturday night at Fight Island. Israel Adesanya’s middleweight title defense against second-ranked ranked Paulo Costa highlights an intriguing card. Early prelims start at 7 p.m. ET, with the main card set to begin at 10 p.m. ET.
Here is a glance at UFC 253 odds, a betting breakdown of Adesanya vs. Costa and Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz, as well as a look at some other interesting fights and props.
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UFC 253 odds
- Israel Adesanya -188 vs. Paulo Costa +152
- Dominick Reyes -290 vs. Jan Blachowicz +225
- Kai Kara-France -250 vs. Brandon Royval +198
- Zubaira Tukhugov -122 vs. Hakeem Dawodu +100
- Ketlen Vieira -184 vs. Sijara Eubanks +148
- Brad Riddell -355 vs. Alex da Silva + 270
- Jake Matthews -750 vs. Diego Sanchez +490
- Shane Young -130 vs. Ludovit Klein +106
- Aleksa Camur -170 vs. William Knight +138
Adesanya vs. Costa betting preview
If you like Costa (+152), this is a nice return. You have a tough decision to make with Adesanya. The moneyline is marginally unattractive, but would improve if that slid to say, -140, later in the week.
Adesanya has been a mixed betting bag in his last five UFC fights. He has stoppage victories in three of them and a pair of five-round decisions. He also comes off a five-round decision triumph over Yoel Romero in March. Adesanya is not a one-punch knockout artist but can stop fighters via accumulation.
Romero is a common opponent between these fighters, also losing a unanimous decision to Costa. The odds reflect respect for both UFC 253 main event combatants and reflect a chance for bettors to think outside the box.
Bettors expect a fight inside of five rounds, but the favored Adesanya is -167 on the “No” option for a knockout and TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook. The board is leading you towards considering him at +300 for a decision.
If you think it could end late, the fight would pay handsomely at FanDuel if either fighter scored a knockout/TKO in Round 5. The FanDuel line is +2300 for Adesanya, +3200 for Costa.
Adesanya is the UFC’s fourth-ranked pound-for-pound fighter.
Blachowicz vs. Reyes betting preview
Blachowicz backers can make their first big play on the moneyline at that attractive price (+225 at FanDuel). He comes off three straight victories, including a noteworthy first-round KO of Corey Anderson in February. Anderson had decisioned Blachowicz in 2015.
It pays to wait: Reyes bettors will seek some refuge with the props, seeing no moneyline bargain at -290. They may have to watch, wait and then wager as we get closer to Saturday night. Reyes suffered his only career loss in his last outing, a controversial setback against division champion Jon Jones in February. Jones later announced he would vacate the title, enabling this fight to be contested for the belt.
Odds and ends
Kara-France has the striking edge at nearly six per minute versus two for Royval, but the -250 does Kara-France backers no favors. Royval supporters may bet the moneyline early, but also look at the submission line prop. Royval wins 60% of the time by submission. That’s a high percentage, and FanDuel has Royval at +700 to win by submission.
Bet at will: Want to know why Tukhogov (-115 at FD) is tough to figure out? He had a win, a loss and a draw – all by split decision – in three straight fights. Tukhogov took the judges out of it in his last effort, scoring a first-round triumph.
Dawodu (-105 at FD), meanwhile, has four straight wins.