UFC 253 Odds: Israel Adesanya, Paulo Costa To Tangle In Main Event

Written By Dave Bontempo on September 22, 2020 - Last Updated on September 23, 2020
UFC 253 odds submission round Adesanya Reyes

UFC 253 is next up in the MMA world, Saturday night at Fight Island. Israel Adesanya’s middleweight title defense against second-ranked ranked Paulo Costa highlights an intriguing card. Early prelims start at 7 p.m. ET, with the main card set to begin at 10 p.m. ET.

Here is a glance at UFC 253 odds, a betting breakdown of Adesanya vs. Costa and Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz, as well as a look at some other interesting fights and props.

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UFC 253 odds

  • Israel Adesanya -188 vs. Paulo Costa +152
  • Dominick Reyes -290 vs. Jan Blachowicz +225
  • Kai Kara-France -250 vs. Brandon Royval +198
  • Zubaira Tukhugov -122 vs. Hakeem Dawodu +100
  • Ketlen Vieira -184 vs. Sijara Eubanks +148
  • Brad Riddell -355 vs. Alex da Silva + 270
  • Jake Matthews -750 vs. Diego Sanchez +490
  • Shane Young -130 vs. Ludovit Klein +106
  • Aleksa Camur -170 vs. William Knight +138

Adesanya vs. Costa betting preview

If you like Costa (+152), this is a nice return. You have a tough decision to make with Adesanya. The moneyline is marginally unattractive, but would improve if that slid to say, -140, later in the week.

Adesanya has been a mixed betting bag in his last five UFC fights. He has stoppage victories in three of them and a pair of five-round decisions. He also comes off a five-round decision triumph over Yoel Romero in March. Adesanya is not a one-punch knockout artist but can stop fighters via accumulation.

Romero is a common opponent between these fighters, also losing a unanimous decision to Costa. The odds reflect respect for both UFC 253 main event combatants and reflect a chance for bettors to think outside the box.

Bettors expect a fight inside of five rounds, but the favored Adesanya is -167 on the “No” option for a knockout and TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook. The board is leading you towards considering him at +300 for a decision.

If you think it could end late, the fight would pay handsomely at FanDuel if either fighter scored a knockout/TKO in Round 5. The FanDuel line is +2300 for Adesanya, +3200 for Costa.

Adesanya is the UFC’s fourth-ranked pound-for-pound fighter.

Blachowicz vs. Reyes betting preview

Blachowicz backers can make their first big play on the moneyline at that attractive price (+225 at FanDuel). He comes off three straight victories, including a noteworthy first-round KO of Corey Anderson in February. Anderson had decisioned Blachowicz in 2015.

It pays to wait: Reyes bettors will seek some refuge with the props, seeing no moneyline bargain at -290. They may have to watch, wait and then wager as we get closer to Saturday night. Reyes suffered his only career loss in his last outing, a controversial setback against division champion Jon Jones in February. Jones later announced he would vacate the title, enabling this fight to be contested for the belt.

Odds and ends

Kara-France has the striking edge at nearly six per minute versus two for Royval, but the -250 does Kara-France backers no favors. Royval supporters may bet the moneyline early, but also look at the submission line prop. Royval wins 60% of the time by submission. That’s a high percentage, and FanDuel has Royval at +700 to win by submission.

Bet at will: Want to know why Tukhogov (-115 at FD) is tough to figure out? He had a win, a loss and a draw – all by split decision – in three straight fights. Tukhogov took the judges out of it in his last effort, scoring a first-round triumph.

Dawodu (-105 at FD), meanwhile, has four straight wins.

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Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo, who writes extensively on the emergence of legalized sports betting, is a recipient of the Sam Taub Award for Broadcast Excellence by the Boxing Writers Association of America. He has broadcast boxing for all the major networks over the last four decades and is a member of the New Jersey Boxing Hall of Fame as well as the Atlantic City Boxing Hall of Fame. His work also can be seen at the Press of Atlantic City and iGamingPlayer.

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