Call off the dogs.
That could be the UFC theme for Saturday’s Las Vegas card. Amanda Nunes, its top pound-for-pound athlete, has been a runaway train of betting money as she opposes Felicia Spencer in the main event.
Underdogs have captured all four UFC main events since the organization resumed May 9. But the odds of that repeating look more remote by the day.
While most bettors will seek the prop route with Spencer, the rest of the card has significant moneyline opportunities, including the two big supporting bouts. Four world-ranked bantamweights will be featured.
DraftKings Sportsbook is running a pair of exciting promotions for UFC 250. DK is offering a 50% profit boost on every main card fight for users in NJ, PA, IA, WV. For CO users only, there is also a “Bet $10, get $50 when you bet on Nunes to win” offer.
UFC 250 odds and card breakdown
Cody Garbrandt, ranked number 9, is -155 in facing fifth-ranked Raphael Assuncao, + 125, according to DraftKings.
FanDuel has second-ranked Aljamain Sterling -118 vs fourth-ranked Cory Sandhagen, -106.
Here are the most significant fights on the card (UFC 250 odds via DraftKings):
- Amanda Nunes -670 vs Felicia Spencer +475
- Cody Garbrandt -155 vs Raphael Assuncao +125
- Aljamain Sterling -117 vs Cory Sandhagen -106
- Neil Magny -150 vs Anthony Rocco Martin +120
- Chase Hooper – 198 vs Alex Caceras +160
- Ian Heinisch -138 vs Gerald Meerschaert +114
- Cody Stamann -270 vs Brian Kelleher +205
- Charles Byrd -178 vs Maki Pitolo +144
Some noted early betting at DraftKings:
- Nunes is getting 77% of the handle
- Odds of Nunes by KO, TKO or DQ is -182 and is getting 59% of the handle
- Odds of Spencer by KO, TKO or DQ is +1800 and is getting 5% of the handle
- Garbrandt has 70% of the handle
- Magny is at 63%
- O’Malley claims 86%
- Sterling has 53% of the money
Betting overviews and strategies
1.Watch for the specials
They may come whizzing in faster than a Nunes right hand.
FanDuel has an odds boost on Nunes, hiking her +250 odds on a first-round KO/TKO to +350. Maximum bet is $50. If that’s where you were thinking about laying money, a bonus is built in.
DraftKings announced a 50% bonus boost on the main card bouts under certain conditions. Maximum $50 bet and $100 additional winnings.
2. Check the movement on the fights you like
FanDuel updates: Hooper money drove his odds from -172 to -198 on Thursday and Caceras went from +140 to +160 at FanDuel.
Heinisch ticked from -122 to -138 while Gerald Meerschaert went from +100 to +114. These moves mean little to small bettors but would significantly impact a big wager.
3. Fight lengths and props
While the main event is five rounds, the undercard bouts are shorter here than in some other cards. They are three rounds. This affects props because the biggest payouts disappear.
Justin Gaethje and Glover Teixeria produced 35-1 returns at most books to bettors to predicted the exact round of their fifth-round victories in UFC’s first two return cards. Odds would likely be half of that for most of the shorter fights (although still a nice collection).
Measure what the books tell you versus your expectations. Sterling and Sandhagen look ticketed for a three-round decision more than any two fighters would. They are both slightly favored. Sterling is second in the world and Sandhagen fourth, according to UFC rankings. And the FanDuel prop board has the over 2.5 rounds at -220 and a full distance fight at -192.
Do you agree this is a distance fight? If not, a Sterling K0/TKO pays +750 and Sandhagen would be +500.
5. Styles and recent performance
Sandhagen has a diverse victory menu, with 36% knockouts and technical knockouts. He also produces 27% wins by submission.
Sterling is much heavier in the decision and submission department, at more than 40%. Only 12% of his wins come by knockout.
Both come in off decision wins.
Garbrandt and Assancao have lost their last five, combined. Assuncao has not been as stale as long and has a previous win over Sterling. That’s an edge for backers of Assuncao at +125.
The board points to a decision but Gardbrandt is +180 and Assuncao +420 for a KO/TKO.