UConn Vs. Alabama March Madness Odds: Final Four Betting Tips, Expert Picks, Predictions

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
Final Four Odds

In Saturday’s finale among March Madness odds, top-seeded UConn faces fourth-seeded Alabama for the right to play in the national title game on Monday, April 6. This article aims to assist bettors with price discovery and handicapping Final Four odds, whether it be the point spreadmoneyline, or total, while price shopping at the best betting sites. Let’s dissect how I’m betting on the highly anticipated matchup.

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Final four odds: UConn vs. alabama spread, moneyline, total

Per the odds table above, UConn’s best spread odds are . The most appealing Alabama moneyline odds are . Elsewhere, the total is Remember that NC residents can receive exclusive offers on NC sports betting apps for these Final Four odds.

Fade The Juggernaut?

Stepping in front of Dan Hurley’s bulldozer in the last two NCAA tournaments hasn’t worked out. The Huskies have covered each of those 10 matchups, winning them all by double figures. Not only did UConn go undefeated against the spread in last year’s March Madness, but they would also join the following teams if they accomplish the same feat:

  • 2018 Villanova
  • 2016 Villanova
  • 2015 Duke
  • 2014 UConn
  • 2009 UNC
  • 2006 Florida
  • 1991 Duke
  • 1985 Villanova

Some models have assembled a similar line to the current number. The market is exceedingly efficient this time of year, to boot. However, oddsmakers have needed to shade toward UConn because of the inevitable action on the white-hot Huskies — no matter the spread.

Moreover, the Crimson Tide are expected to have 6-foot-3 guard Latrell Wrightsell (concussion) back in the lineup after missing their last two games. Not only is Wrightsell their top 3-point marksman, statistically speaking (44.3%), but they yield 12 points per 100 possessions (PPP) fewer when their defensive ballhawk is on the court (via hoop-explorer).

Although Alabama ranks No. 342 in Haslametrics’ “Away From Home” metric, largely because of their sporadic defense, the readdition of Wrightsell would be notable. Still, UConn center Donovan Clingan should have his way regardless, taking on a defense that surrenders the 15th-most post-up points per game.

Alabama’s Offensive Approach

At the other end, the Crimson Tide are an attractive double-digit underdog because of their high-variance nature. Nate Oats’ crew owns a top-20 attempt rate from deep while generating at a 37.1% clip. More importantly, Alabama has rediscovered its perimeter efficiency after shooting just 32.8% from February until the beginning of the tournament.

Even if the Huskies’ drop coverage runs Mark Sears & Co. off the 3-point line on a slew of half-court possessions, forcing them into mid-range jumpers or their 7-foot-2 mammoth in Clingan, I trust Oats to lean more on the former. Illinois strung together a horrifying 0-for-19 shooting display when up against Clingan in the Elite Eight, yet the Huskies have given up the fourth-highest field-goal percentage in the mid-range (43.2%).

As much as the Crimson Tide are constructed around rim and 3-point attempts, Sears and do-it-all guard Aaron Estrada each rank in the 63rd percentile regarding “longer” mid-range proficiency (per Synergy). This category is measured between 17 feet and the arc. Estrada’s points prop is worth monitoring since it isn’t inflated, yet Wrightsell’s reinsertion makes it a trickier handicap. As of this publishing, it’s priced at .

Wherever Alabama’s jumpers stem from, Nick Pringle’s aptitude for tracking down long misses is key. The 6-foot-10 center combined to corral 11 offensive rebounds against North Carolina and Clemson, two stout defensive rebounding teams.

Thus, Pringle can ill-afford to deal with foul trouble, as the Tide’s knack for accruing second-chance opportunities is another key element within their high-variance formula.

Evaluating The Total

Alabama hasn’t tallied consecutive unders since early January — a byproduct of its top-10 adjusted pace. UConn is at the opposite end of the spectrum, but it’s elite when it selectively speeds things up offensively, averaging 1.22 in transition.

The Crimson Tide’s transition defense ranks in the second percentile against their most arduous competition, such as Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida, Arizona, and Creighton. All of these teams possessed an upper-echelon efficiency rating on the move. Hence, Alabama’s ability to slow down UConn is arguably just as critical as accumulating their fair share of uptempo possessions.

With that in mind, Clingan’s rim protection and the Huskies vying to run opponents off the perimeter certainly favor the under. But I am not advocating to bet it, as the Tide could send the total way over if they’re scorching hot from deep.

Additionally, the Huskies are due for a dose of positive regression from behind the arc after shooting just 28.1% in the tournament. Tristen Newton (27.3%), UConn’s first-team All-American guard, and sophomore forward Alex Karaban (26.3%) are at the forefront of their issues.

Predictions For Final Four Odds

My raw numbers have this line closer to Huskies -10.5. Likewise, our partner Haslametrics projects a final score of UConn 84.3-Alabama 74.2, marginally favoring the Crimson Tide’s spread. But I went a different route, betting on Sears to score under 20.5 points among Final Four odds.

Through four NCAA tournament games, Sears has delivered 24.3 points per game with a 64.3 eFG%. Despite his 3-point touch and mid-range efficiency on spot-up and off-the-dribble looks, Stephon Castle will likely be tasked with defending him. The 6-foot-6 NBA prospect has already exhibited his artistry in hampering the opponent’s best scoring threat (Illinois’ Terrence Shannon Jr. and Northwestern’s Boo Buie) in the Big Dance, and the Huskies collectively allow a bottom-50 attempt rate from deep.

My projections have Sears going for roughly 18 points. I’d play this prop down to 19.5. Best of luck with your Final Four picks!

Final four odds: Player Props

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outside shots: final four betting preview

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