The whirlwind NFL offseason continued on Wednesday with another blockbuster deal. This time, the Kansas City Chiefs dealt speed demon WR Tyreek Hill in a trade to the Miami Dolphins, who received five draft picks in return.
Where does the trade leave the Dolphins and the Chiefs in futures markets? We’ll take a look at Super Bowl odds shifts and the current snapshot of the divisions below.
Chiefs Odds Down, Dolphins Up After Hill Trade
|Opening Odds||March 8 Odds||Odds After Tyreek Hill Trade|
The Chiefs opened as slight 2023 Super Bowl favorites just prior to last season’s Conference Championship games. The market has been bearish ever since as they’ve now slid to as low as .
The division has gotten notably tougher, with the Broncos making a huge deal for Russell Wilson and then the Raiders acquiring superstar WR Davante Adams, to say nothing of the myriad signings by the Chargers. Perennial AFC rival Buffalo also made a big addition in bringing in Von Miller.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins have added Hill at the expense of their draft capital. He wasn’t their only addition, though. They’ve also scooped premium LT Terron Armstead and solid G Connor Williams to bolster an atrocious offensive line.
While the market hasn’t been impressed in terms of Super Bowl price — they’ve gained less than 1% of implied probability — the divisional odds have moved a bit more. Once seen as clearly behind the heavily favored Bills () and 2021 playoff participant Patriots (), the Dolphins have now pulled about even with New England. You can find them at after they were around +650 before making the Hill trade.
Hill brings premium speed and unmatched short-distance burst to the table. According to Football Outsiders’ counting stat, DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement), Hill added the seventh-most value of any WR last season. He totaled 111 receptions, 1,239 yards and nine TDs.
However, note that the efficiency-based DVOA had Hill down at 24th.
Still, pairing him with the ascendent Jaylen Waddle gives the Dolphins one of the fastest and scariest top twos at wideout in the NFL.
Where Do Chiefs Go From Here?
While it’s clear what Miami has accomplished — adding an established, elite WR to a young and improving offense — the path forward is a little less obvious for Kansas City.
Dealing away a premium receiver for a large haul of picks unquestionably makes the team worse tomorrow. But, what about going forward?
That depends heavily on the moves left to be made. There are still several decent wide receivers available in free agency — Spotrac keeps a running list here. The Chiefs now also have six picks in the top 103. In what’s generally seen as a deep WR crop, they’ll likely grab a player or two (some depth also left the team in the forms of Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle). The Chiefs braintrust will have to weigh this need against improving a mediocre defense.
Kansas City’s offense has generally performed just fine in a small sample without Hill.
If the Chiefs can hit on a few picks and/or make a decent signing in what remains of free agency, pricing a team with arguably the best quarterback and offensive mind in the league at close to 10-to-1 odds will look silly by next year, even battling possibly the most stacked division in recent memory.