Tyreek Hill: Super Bowl Player Props for Chiefs vs Buccaneers – February 7, 2021

Posted By Staff on February 4, 2021

Tyreek Hill and the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Super Bowl on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. Here’s some insights and tips around Hill’s receiving yards prop bet in that matchup.

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Tyreek Hill Super Bowl Player Props

Tyreek Hill Props: What You Need To Know

Fantasy football players keenly remember Tyreek Hill’s first go around with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he exploded for 269 yards and three touchdowns (203 yards and all three touchdowns came in the first quarter). Hill torched Carlton Davis that first quarter, who was left one-on-one with the speedster. Todd Bowles made the halftime adjustment and held Hill to “just” six catches for 63 yards and no touchdowns. It’d be foolhardy to assume the Bucs will come out man-to-man against Hill this time around.

However, it’d also be foolhardy to assume Davis won’t get another crack at Hill; he was the primary defender on Davante Adams last week against the Packers. PFF ranks Davis as the 47th-best coverage corner in the NFL this season and glaring flaws were exposed in the NFC Championship Game (though the spotlight fell on Green Bay’s Kevin King). Adams was able to use route running to score near the goalline (and almost twice, but Aaron Rodgers led one out of bounds).

The blueprint for slowing down Tyreek Hill has been laid by the Denver Broncos (second matchup) and Buffalo Bills (first time out)– the only two times in which Hill was held out of the end zone under 10 yards per reception. While Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard were able to put the brakes on Hill, they were selected to the NFL’s All-Pro rosters, a luxury Tampa Bay doesn’t have.

The Broncos used a “bracket” technique on Hill, essentially taking away his over-the-top and underneath catch ability. This forces Hill to work himself open to make catches, rather than being schemed open and allowing his legs to do the rest. This bracket technique was used by the Bucs in the second half of their Week 12 matchup with the Chiefs; it turned Hill from 29 yards per reception and three touchdowns in the first quarter to 10.5 yards per reception and no touchdowns in the final three quarters.

Tyreek Hill: Super Bowl Prop Checklist

Best Super Bowl Prop Bets

Hill’s Game-by-Game Stats

Week Opponent Off. Snaps Targets Receptions Yards TDs
Week 1 Texans 59 6 5 46 1
Week 2 @Chargers 69 11 5 99 1
Week 3 @Ravens 60 6 5 77 1
Week 4 Patriots 52 6 4 64 1
Week 5 Raiders 63 6 3 78 0
Week 6 @Bills 67 3 3 20 0
Week 7 @Broncos 37 10 6 55 1
Week 8 Jets 50 6 4 98 2
Week 9 Panthers 59 18 9 113 2
Week 11 @Raiders 72 14 11 102 1
Week 12 @Buccaneers 68 15 13 269 3
Week 13 Broncos 61 10 6 58 0
Week 14 @Dolphins 57 7 3 79 1
Week 15 @Saints 84 10 6 53 1
Week 16 Falcons 43 6 4 65 0
AFC Divisional Round Browns 63 10 8 110 0
AFC Championship Game Bills 52 11 9 172 0

Receiving Yards Betting Trends

  • Hill’s 91.6 receiving yards per game average is 2.1 more than his prop bet total in Sunday’s outing (89.5).
  • In 41.2% of his games this season (seven out of 17), Hill has put up more than 89.5 receiving yards.
  • The Buccaneers sport the 22nd-best pass defense in the league this season, allowing 269.4 yards per game.
  • Hill has put up 9.9 more receiving yards per game (91.6) than the average over/under he’s had set, 81.7.
  • In just seven of his 17 games (41.2%), Hill has gone over his average receiving yards prop bet of 81.7 yards.
  • In only seven of his 17 games (41.2%), Hill has gone over on receiving yards prop bets.

Check out TheLines YouTube channel to learn more about betting tips and picks for this week’s NFL action.

Odds and insights reflect consensus player props available as of January 28, 2021. CLICK HERE to place your bet on Tyreek Hill or the Kansas City Chiefs at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Betting Odds

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