NFL Draft Odds 2020: Can Tua Tagovailoa Upend The Top Of The Draft?

Posted By Juan Carlos Blanco on April 8, 2020

The 2020 NFL Draft promises to be one quite unlike any other for pretty much all the wrong reasons.

The current health landscape will completely strip away the event’s usual pomp and circumstance. Yet that can’t sully the anticipation a quarterback-rich draft always brings. There’s a certain palpable excitement a class with several first-round-worthy signal-callers lends to the entire process.

This year, we have the added intrigue of two quarterbacks that are arguably worthy of the first overall pick. Those would be likely top selection Joe Burrow and the player that was considered a likely shoo-in for that spot just a few months ago — Tua Tagovailoa.

No longer top projected QB

Tagovailoa’s right hip dislocation and posterior wall fracture is the infamous culprit behind the Alabama product losing his status as the consensus first overall pick. He’d previously earned that distinction by posting a stellar 76:9 TD:INT over the 24 games he played during his sophomore and junior seasons.

However, there was good news on that front Thursday. Tagovailoa’s agent Leigh Steinberg confirmed an independent doctor that conducted a voluntary medical recheck determined the quarterback’s hip is once again structurally sound.

Is that enough to vault Tagovailoa back to the top spot?

Draft experts remain almost (more on that qualifier shortly) unanimously bearish on that possibility. LSU’s Burrow is still widely expected to be taken at the top of the draft. Yet that just makes Tua – who’s been frequently projected to go as early as No. 2 to the Redskins or to another team that trades into that spot — an intriguing wild card in terms of potential draft position and destination.

 

Abundance of betting markets

Bettors looking for action on the dynamic Crimson Tide alum have no shortage of wagering opportunities at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, PointsBet and FOX Bet.

The following is a listing, by sportsbook, of individual prop markets that include Tua:

DraftKings Sportsbook:

  • Draft position
  • Team to draft player
  • Second offensive player drafted
  • Top 5 pick
  • First QB drafted
  • Second QB drafted
  • Third QB drafted

FanDuel Sportsbook:

  • First overall pick
  • Second overall pick
  • Third overall pick
  • Giants’ 1st pick
  • Team to Draft Player

BetMGM:

  • First overall pick
  • Second overall pick
  • First QB drafted
  • Second QB drafted
  • Third QB drafted
  • Player Draft position
  • Team to draft
  • Giants’ 1st Pick

PointsBet:

  • First overall pick
  • Second overall pick
  • Third overall pick
  • Draft position
  • First QB drafted
  • Second QB drafted
  • Third QB drafted
  • Second Offensive player drafted
  • Team to draft 

FOX Bet:

  • First overall pick
  • First QB selected
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Redskins gaining steam as Tua destination?

The No. 1-slotted Bengals are badly in need of a franchise quarterback and have displayed no overt signs of souring on Burrow. Moreover, the current absence of pro days and in-person workouts eliminates the extremely remote possibility the LSU product somehow hurts his standing prior to Cincy turning in his card.

That means the best value by far (in terms of most probable outcomes) in the aforementioned Tua markets lies in those other than the first overall pick and first QB selected.

One scenario that’s picked up some steam consists of the Redskins staying put at No. 2 and taking Tua, despite having just invested the 15th overall pick in Dwayne Haskins a year ago. The one caveat? That selection was made by the previous administration.

Ron Rivera is now primarily in charge in DC and will undoubtedly enjoy some sort of a honeymoon period. Nevertheless, there have been rumblings he may not want to stake his future under a notoriously impatient owner like Daniel Snyder with someone else’s hand-picked quarterback.

If Washington does indeed commit to Tagovailoa, there will be some money made for those who take that prop, as seen below:

ALSO READ: Odds And Trends For The First QB Taken In 2020 NFL Draft

Potential first-round trades introduce slew of profit opportunities

And then there’s a parallel draft universe, one that includes Washington trading out of the second pick.

CBS Sports’ Bryan DeArdo recently outlined 10 potential first-round moves, several of them focused on teams trading up to take Tagovailoa:

  • Dolphins acquire No. 2 overall pick from the Redskins for the No. 5 overall pick and the 39th overall pick.
  • Chargers acquire the No. 2 overall pick from the Redskins in exchange for the No. 6 overall pick and a 2021 second-round pick.
  • Jaguars acquire No. 3 and No. 109 overall pick from the Lions in exchange for the No. 9 and 20 overall picks.
  • Miami acquires No. 1 overall pick from Cincinnati in exchange for the No. 5, 18 and 26th overall picks.

The biggest outlier in those scenarios is the final one. There, DeArdo sees the Dolphins surprisingly taking Tua as the top overall selection over Burrow.

For one, this contingency entails Cincinnati coming to the conclusion they can get better overall value by taking three of Miami’s four first-round picks and another first-round-worthy quarterback such as Oregon’s Justin Herbert with the fifth overall selection.

That’s actually at least somewhat feasible, albeit still highly improbable.

What’s arguably more of a stretch is the Dolphins giving up all that capital and then choosing Tua over Burrow. As alluded to earlier, that would have been a much more widely accepted notion last fall, before Tagovailoa’s hip injury and Burrow’s spectacular season.

On the off-chance DeArdo is on to something here, those who take a flier based on his scenario will be rewarded handsomely. The following are the current odds on the most profitable props that conform to the idea of the Dolphins blowing up the board and making Tua the first overall pick:

DraftKings Sportsbook:

  • Tua first overall pick: +1600
  • Tua first QB drafted: +800

FanDuel Sportsbook:

  • Tua first overall pick: +1900

BetMGM:

  • Tua first overall pick: +1900
  • Tua draft position below pick 2.5: +220
  • Tua first QB drafted: +900

PointsBet:

  • Tua first overall pick: +1700
  • Tua first QB drafted: +1100

FOX Bet:

  • Tua first overall pick: +1000
  • Tua firs QB drafted: +800

Yet DeArdo’s third scenario – the Jaguars, unsure of Gardner Minshew as their quarterback of the future, vault into the No. 3 spot to snag Tagovailoa – offers an even better return on investment in some cases.

Odds on Jacksonville drafting Tua:

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Juan Carlos Blanco Avatar
Written by
Juan Carlos Blanco

Juan Carlos Blanco has served as a freelance writer for a wide variety of online publications and websites, with an intensive focus on fantasy sports. Juan has provided analysis and comprehensive coverage of the MLB, NBA, NFL, CFL, AAF and AFL while also reporting on news and developments in the daily fantasy sports and online gaming industries.

View all posts by Juan Carlos Blanco