Nobody’s garnered more player prop tickets and handle this offseason than 49ers QB Trey Lance. According to Caesars Sportsbook, the Over on Lance’s rushing yards is the most-bet player prop this NFL preseason. Funny enough, Under his rushing total has received the most money of any rushing yards Under as well!
That begs the question – what is Trey Lance this season?
2022 NFL MVP odds
NFL Betting Odds: Trey Lance
Trey Lance Props Polarize Betting Market
How often has a player garnered the most handle for both Overs and Under in a season-long props market? Common sense suggests not often. Lance has been a polarizing player in the rushing yards and rushing touchdowns markets, not to mention just among mainstream NFL analysts, in general, since the 49ers decided to draft him third overall in 2021.
The North Dakota State product offers a higher rushing upside than almost any QB in the league, with the exception of Lamar Jackson and perhaps Kyler Murray. The thing is, we haven’t seen Lance all that much yet.
According to Caesars, 55.4% of all tickets and a whopping 78.2% of the handle land on over Lance’s rushing total. His handle accounts for more money than every other Over in NFL rushing props combined.
For rushing touchdown props, Lance has also drawn more over money than the rest of the player rushing touchdown props combined at Caesars. Wild stuff.
Trey Lance Line Movement
Lance’s number opened at 475.5 rushing yards at Caesars, a total that garnered immediate attention and rose to as high as 650.5 this offseason. As of Aug. 17, the best available price if you want to be bullish is Over . The best line for an Under is 615.5 (-115) at Caesars.
Just 21.8% of the handle may on the Under for Trey Lance’s rushing yards at Caesars, but that handle is still the most money bet on any NFL rushing yards Under at Caesars! Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is next, with 60.4% of the handle on his rushing yards Under.
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What Can We Expect From Lance In 2022?
This offseason, Kyle Shanahan finally affirmed that Lance would be San Francisco’s starter for 2022. It came shortly after the Niners granted incumbent Jimmy Garoppolo permission to seek a trade. With the keys officially handed over, speculation ran rampant.
In his two starts last season, Lance rushed 24 times for 120 yards and no touchdowns; although, he came inches from a rushing score. His only other significant work was in injury relief of Garoppolo against the Seahawks in Week 4; Lance rushed seven times for 41 yards.
His rushing ability is there, although it’s unclear what kind of rushing workload Shanahan and the 49ers offense has in store for him. Will we see Jackson-esque designed runs 12-16 times a game like in Baltimore? Or a more when-necessary approach like we see from Justin Herbert with the Chargers (118 attempts, 586 yards in two seasons)?
It’s clear the market is pretty divided on the answer.