Perhaps no elite 2022 season received less buzz than what Travis Kelce put together. At age 33, he compiled 110 catches, 1,338 yards and a career-best 12 TDs. He continued that dominance in the playoffs with 21 catches for 176 yards and 3 more TDs. As part of TheLines‘ coverage of Super Bowl 57, we take a look at Travis Kelce props. What does the market think about his chances for a big game?
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Travis Kelce Player Props
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Travis Kelce Receiving Yardage Prop: Over
Kelce was among the most targeted players in the NFL this season. His 152 ranked sixth in the league. That gives him one of the highest floors when it comes to receiving props as he’s just always going to be involved in the offense. Indeed, he only posted fewer than 50 receiving three times in the entire season, including the playoffs.
With this prop number hovering right around his average, that makes it tempting to scroll right by it. Kelce should be an easy player to project, so there shouldn’t be much value either way.
Particularly when one considers the Eagles did a fine job against TEs this year. They ranked sixth in DVOA allowed there. Although they gave up a fairly high number of catches, their 49.2 yards matches the league average exactly.
The wild card that makes this prop interesting is the situation with the Chiefs WR injuries. The team already announced it expected Mecole Hardman to miss the Super Bowl. Additionally, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney got banged up against the Bengals.
Could that send extra targets Kelce’s way? He seemed to command his usual share of the offense against Cincinnati, and Patrick Mahomes has seemed quite committed to spreading the ball around this year. Most likely, these don’t move the needle too much either way. But, if the market thinks they do, you might find a sliver of value.
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Receptions, Longest Reception
Kelce averaged 6.5 receptions per game. Again, averages don’t tell the tale necessarily of how shockingly consistent he was and how little variance he experienced. He never caught fewer than four passes and never more than 10, except in the playoff game against the Jaguars where he racked up a whopping 14.
Thus, it’s little surprise to find his receptions prop at , right where it should sit. Since the Eagles allow an above-average reception count to tight ends, we should expect him to land on the high end of his average in most cases here.
Can Kelce hit on an explosive play? His longest reception prop is at O/U /.
That will be easier said than done against an Eagles team with the fifth-lowest average depth of target allowed in the NFL.
On the other hand, the Chiefs led the NFL with 49 pass plays of at least 25 yards. That was as far above second place as second place was to 22nd. So, even in a year in which Mahomes operated in structure more than ever, he still found more than his share of big plays.
It seems slightly more likely than not that Kelce finds a play down the field at some point.
Travis Kelce YES Touchdown Prop:
With a pretty high total of – even with KC as an early slight underdog – they should have plentiful scoring opportunities.
Will Kelce cash in? The market says he’s a bit better than 50-50 to do so.
His career numbers say about the same. Although, they also say the market may be underestimating him a bit. His rate of touchdowns scored (47 in 80 games with Patrick Mahomes) says he should be around -140 here.
In fact, if anything, Kelce has been a bigger part of the red zone offense during the playoffs. He has 15 career postseason TDs in just 17 games.
Kelce to score at close to even money looks like a decent play, if history is any judge.
Travis Kelce Prop Bets Parlay At FanDuel
Fans betting at FanDuel sportsbook for Travis Kelce props can cash in big with parlay betting. Combine multiple Kelce props such as total TDs and total receiving yards to bolster more potential wins on the betting line. FanDuel is also offering combined props for Kelce, giving more options fans can parlay during the Big Game. Betting at FanDuel is the place to be for Travis Kelce prop betting. Same game parlays Kelce odds for large payouts.
Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, there are plenty of Super Bowl prop bets that are intertwined with other sports. For instance, you can wager on whether Kelce will accrue more first-half receiving yards than Ja Morant’s PRA total against the Celtics.
Morant is currently -130 favorite to exceed Kelce’s production over the game’s first 30 minutes. Keep in mind, Morant’s PRA prop is usually listed in the O/U 43.5 range. Meanwhile, Kelce posted 55 receiving yards and a score in the first half of the AFC Championship Game.
SUPER BOWL LVII PLAYER PROPS CATALOG
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