Trade Deadline Fallout: How MLB Trades Changed World Series Odds

Written By Simon Lehrer on August 3, 2022
trade deadline

After a barrage of blockbusters, the MLB trade deadline is in the books. Most World Series-contending teams made significant upgrades prior to Tuesday’s deadline. Here’s how the biggest trades shifted World Series futures and other MLB odds

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San Diego Padres

The Padres were a consensus +2500 before the trade deadline to win the World Series and +1100 to win the National League. Now the best available prices in those markets are and , respectively. 

Prior to the deadline, San Diego had the eighth shortest odds to win the World Series. Now, the Friars sit only behind the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros and Mets.

Best Available Padres Odds

Notable players added: 

  • OF Juan Soto
  • 1B Josh Bell
  • RP Josh Hader
  • IF Brandon Drury

Notable players lost: 

  • 1B Luke Voit
  • SP MacKenzie Gore
  • SS C.J. Abrams
  • RP Taylor Rogers

San Diego landed the crown jewel of this year’s trade deadline, acquiring outfielder Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals. At just 23 years old, Soto is already considered one of the best hitters in the world. He led the Majors in On-Base Percentage each of the last two seasons, already has 119 career home runs, and is fresh off winning this year’s Home Run Derby. Soto is a bonafide star. He will likely hit second or third for the Padres, and when Fernando Tatis Jr. returns from injury, they will arguably have the best lineup in baseball.

Power-hitting first baseman Josh Bell also heads to San Diego in the deal. Bell is putting together a career year, hitting .301 with 14 home runs. While the Padres gave up multiple top prospects to land Soto and Bell, this trade undisputedly makes them a better team in 2022. 

But that’s not all! The Padres also swapped closers with the Milwaukee Brewers, acquiring Josh Hader, one of the best relief pitchers in baseball since he entered the league in 2017. Hader is a four-time All-Star and currently leads MLB in saves with 29. He has struggled mightily over the last month, but a change of scenery could help Hader return to dominance in Southern California. He has a career 0.88 WHIP, along with an eye-popping 15.4 strikeouts per nine innings. That is the lowest WHIP and highest K/9 in Major League history for any pitcher who has thrown at least 300 innings. 

New York Mets

The Mets were a consensus +700 before the trade deadline to win the World Series and +325 to win the National League. Now the best available prices in those markets are and , respectively. 

They have the second-shortest odds to win the National League, trailing only the Dodgers. 

Best Available Mets Odds

Notable players added: 

  • DH/1B Daniel Vogelbach
  • OF Darin Ruf
  • OF Tyler Naquin
  • RP Mychal Givens

Notable players lost:

  • OF/3B J.D. Davis

The Mets had been linked to plenty of notable trade targets since the All-Star break. But their most important acquisition comes from within their own team – Jacob deGrom is back. In his return Tuesday night, he allowed one run in five innings, striking out six on just 59 pitches in Washington. 

Arguably the best pitcher in the world, deGrom had a 1.08 ERA last season before getting injured. He has won two Cy Young Awards since 2018, throws triple digits with ease, and joins Max Scherzer atop the most formidable pitching staff in MLB. Nobody should want to meet the Mets if deGrom is healthy heading into the postseason. 

The Mets also added three bats at the trade deadline. Daniel Vogelbach and Darin Ruf will platoon at designated hitter, giving them a strong option from either side of the plate. Vogelbach has a .916 OPS against right-handed pitching. Ruf is also well above league average, with a .886 OPS against lefties. Both of those deals solidify a serious need in the Mets’ lineup, building an elite platoon no matter who is on the mound. Tyler Naquin also creates some outfield depth coming over from Cincinnati. 

New York Yankees

The Yankees were a consensus +400 before the trade deadline to win the World Series and +190 to win the American League. Now the best available prices in those markets are and +185, respectively. 

Best Available Yankees Odds

Notable players added: 

  • OF Andrew Benintendi
  • SP Frankie Montas
  • RP Scott Effross
  • OF Harrison Bader

Notable players lost: 

  • SP Jordan Montgomery
  • OF Joey Gallo
  • SP J.P. Sears

The Yankees came into the deadline as World Series favorites. After making three significant trades, they now have even shorter odds to win their first championship since 2009. 

Outfielder Andrew Benintendi will replace Joey Gallo in left field. Benintendi ranks 10th in MLB with a .387 on-base percentage, while Gallo is having the worst season of any qualified hitter in the league. Not only is Benintendi a major upgrade on offense, he has also been much better defensively. Left field was a serious concern for the Yankees heading into the deadline. Now, that problem is solved. 

New York also made a series of moves to shore up its pitching staff, most notably trading for Frankie Montas. The right-hander finished sixth in American League Cy Young voting last year while pitching for Oakland. Montas is having an even more impressive 2022 season. He joins the Yankees with a 3.18 ERA, second-best among their starters behind only Nestor Cortes. Between Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Montas, and Cortes, the Yankees now have one of the strongest rotations in baseball. 

Houston Astros

The Astros were a consensus +450 before the trade deadline to win the World Series and +200 to win the American League. Now the best available prices in those markets are and , respectively. 

They seem destined for an ALCS rematch with the New York Yankees, as both teams are listed shorter than +200 to reach the World Series. The Toronto Blue Jays’ odds are third in the American League at .

Best Available Astros Odds

Notable players added: 

  • 1B/OF Trey Mancini
  • C Christian Vazquez
  • RP Will Smith

Notable players lost: 

  • SP Jake Odorizzi
  • OF Jose Siri

The Astros have dominated the trade deadline in recent years. Houston’s last-minute deal for Zack Greinke helped them advance to the World Series in 2019, and this time they made several moves on deadline day to improve an already potent lineup.

Christian Vazquez comes over from Boston, fixing the only weak link of the Astros’ dominant offense. Houston ranks last in MLB with -0.6 WAR from their catchers. Vazquez should fix that problem right away, with a .282 batting average and plus-defense. Trey Mancini can play first base, right field or DH on any given night. He was a fan favorite and clubhouse leader in Baltimore. While he might not get as much playing time as an Astro, he certainly figures to be a part of their optimal postseason lineup. 

Between the additions of Vazquez, Mancini, and lefty reliever Will Smith, the Astros are a much better team than they were last week. 

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