Tour Championship Market Report: Bettors Liking Tony Finau To Make Up Ground

Posted By FairwayJay on September 3, 2020
Tour Championship Tony Finau

Bettors are putting their money on Dustin Johnson to win with his Starting Strokes advantage in the Tour Championship. Johnson starts the event at 10-under par, with Jon Rahm next at 8-under par. Tony Finau is taking the third highest percentage of bets to win at BetMGM despite starting at 2-under par.

Last year, Rory McIlroy started the event at 5-under par and won while leader Justin Thomas started 10-under par and fell off to finish tied for third.

But you can see by the BetMGM chart below that bettors don’t believe Johnson will fade from the top, and if he falters it will be Rahm who picks up the $15 million top prize and rewards bettors. Here’s a look at the players attracting the most betting interest at BetMGM for the Tour Championship. Odds and percentages can change leading up to start of event.

GolferStarting StrokesCurrent Odds% of Handle% of Bets
Dustin Johnson-10+15034.21%14.59%
Jon Rahm-8+25018.39%8.65%
Tony Finau-2+60003.12%8.11%
Justin Thomas-7+5507.27%7.03%
Collin Morikawa-5+20004.24%7.03%
Bryson DeChambeau-4+22004.00%5.95%
Xander Schauffele-3+25002.23%7.03%
Viktor Hovland0+250006.83%4.83%
Webb Simpson-6+8005.97%2.70%
Daniel Berger-4+28002.67%3.24%
Kevin Kisner-1+125003.80%1.62%
Marc Leishman0+500000.98%3.78%
Ryan Palmer-1+350001.05%3.24%
Cameron Champ0+400000.69%3.24%
Kevin Na-1+300000.45%3.24%
Hideki Matsuyama-4+33001.79%2.70%
Tyrrell Hatton-2+100000.47%2.70%
Lanto Griffin-2+300000.37%2.70%
Mackenzie Hughes0+400000.44%2.16%
Harris English-4+66000.49%1.62%
Rory McIlroy-3+25000.29%1.08%
Sebastian Munoz-3+150000.10%1.08%

When you’re betting on the event, be sure you understand that there are odds on players to win both the FedExCup Playoffs and the Tour Championship 72-hole event. Also note that this week’s Tour Championship starts on Friday, Sept. 4 and runs through Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 7. So you have an extra day to prepare your pre-tournament bets before shooting for additional scores over the long holiday weekend with in-play betting.

A look at TheLines’ Power Rankings of the Tour Championship field will assist you in some of your handicapping of the players and event. Understanding that different courses on the PGA Tour favor different skill sets, and datagolf points out that driving accuracy is more important than normal this week at East Lake. Rory McIlroy finished third in fairways gained during his Tour Championship win last year. However, eight of the 11 players to tie for a top-10 spot finished in the top-12 in distance gained, which suggests value in the players performances in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.

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Tournament matchups are popular bets

FanDuel Sportsbook informed TheLines that the tournament match-ups are most popular bets behind the outright win market for the Tour Championship.

The most-bet tournament match-up is Dustin Johnson (-138) vs. Jon Rahm (+110). This includes the Starting Strokes advantage for Johnson. Bettors at FanDuel are supporting Rahm with 75% of the handle.

Eliminating the Strokes Gained advantage and betting on which player will have the low 72-hole score, FanDuel Sportsbook says the most money (handle) is on these players:

  • Justin Thomas (+900)
  • Webb Simpson (+1100)
  • Dustin Johnson (+650)
  • Collin Morikawa (+1600)
  • Jon Rahm (+600)

Thomas and Simpson are also the most popular players with the highest percentage of handle to lead after Round 1.

DraftKings Sportsbook has adjusted the odds slightly upward on the top of the market players to win the Tour Championship (Without Starting Strokes).

  • Dustin Johnson (+575)
  • Jon Rahm (+575)
  • Justin Thomas (+800)
  • Rory McIlroy (+1100)
  • Xander Schauffele (+1100)
  • Webb Simpson (+1100)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+1400)
  • Daniel Berger (+1600)
  • Tony Finau (+1800)
  • Collin Morikawa (+1900)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (+2000)
  • Patrick Reed (+2200)

The biggest market move is on Billy Horschel, who is now +2600 at DraftKings and +2200 at FanDuel after opening +3300 and +3100.

Who has the advantage?

Here are the top players that will start with a FedEx Starting Strokes advantage. Included are some stats, past performance at East Lake, along with insight and information you can bet on to guide you towards more bets and winners this week at the Tour Championship.

Dustin Johnson: Starting Strokes (-10). Johnson’s most recent form is best in the field, which has allowed him to earn the No. 1 spot in Starting Strokes for the Tour Championship. Dustin won the Northern Trust opening FedExCup Playoff event and finished runner-up in both the PGA Championship and last week’s BWM Championship. Over the course of those three events and 12 rounds, Johnson ranked No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Total, Tee-to-Green, Ball Striking, Approach and Putting. Very impressive. But DJ shot 13-over par last year at East Lake for his worst performance on the course. His four previous tournament scores were -7, -2, -5 and -4 with three top-10 finishes.

Jon Rahm: Starting Strokes (-8). Rahm’s dramatic sudden death win last week over Johnson in the BMW Championship allowed him leapfrog one spot ahead of Thomas and gain an extra stroke in the push towards a Tour Championship victory and $15 million top prize. Rahm’s three appearances in the Tour Championship the last three years have produced scores of Even Par, -4 and -7 in 2017 when he finished tied for 7th place. His best Strokes Gained stats rankings at East Lake over the last 12 rounds are SG: Approach (3rd), Ball Striking (4th) and Tee-to-Green (5th). In his three most recent events, Rahm ranks No. 2 in SG: Total, Tee-to-Green and Ball Striking, and No. 1 in SG: Off-the-Tee.

Justin Thomas: Starting Strokes (-7). Since winning last month at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, Thomas has struggled a bit with his game while finishing outside the top-20 in three straight most meaningful events. However, his results at East Lake have been superb with four-straight top-7 finishes with a best runner-up finish in 2017 when shooting 11-under par. Thomas’ best Strokes Gained stats at East Lake his last 12 rounds are SG: Around the Green (2nd), SG: Off-the-Tee (3rd) and SG: Tee-to-Green (3rd).

Webb Simpson: Starting Strokes (-6). Webb skipped last week’s BMW Championship and is hoping the rest will pay off in Atlanta. Simpson has three top-five finishes at East Lake, but only one in the past three years when he tied for fourth in 2018 at 6-under par. His power and off-the-tee game is lacking. Simpson’s Strokes Gained stats over his last 12 rounds at East Lake do not suggest he’ll make up enough ground to win. His best are SG: Putting (4th), SG: Short Game (6th) and SG: Approach (7th).

Collin Morikawa: Starting Strokes (-5). Morikawa plays in his first Tour Championship this week. At the age of 23, Morikawa has three Tour wins including the PGA Championship last month and the Workday Charity Open in July. He was runner-up in a sudden death playoff at Colonial in the opening event following the shutdown caused by the health crisis and pandemic. Morikaw’s ball striking and short game have been superb, but his strokes gained stats in driving and off the tee have fallen off in his last three events – ranking outside the top-10 in his last 12 rounds overall. Morikawa did shoot 68-68 last weekend to finish T20 at the BMW Championship.

Daniel Berger: Starting Strokes (-4). Berger has not competed at East Lake the last two years, and the three years prior his best finish was tied for 15th place. In his last 12 rounds on the PGA Tour, Berger’s best stats are SG: Total (4th) and SG: Off-the-Tee (3rd).

Harris English: Starting Strokes (-4). English has competed once at East Lake and finished T22 in 2015. He shot up the FedExCup Standings with a runner-up finish in the Northern Trust. In his last 12 rounds on Tour, English ranks No. 1 in SG: Around the Green, No. 5 in SG: Short Game but outside the top-10 in driving and off-the tee stats.

Bryson DeChambeau: Starting Strokes (-4). Bryson the bomber has had two appearances at East Lake. He finished T12 last year at 4-under par and 19th in 2018. Over his last 12 rounds on the PGA Tour, DeChambeau is No. 2 in SG: Off-the-Tee and Putting. However, he’s really struggled in those last three tournaments in SG: Approach, Tee-to-Green and Around the Green, ranking outside the top-25 in each category.

Sungjae Im: Starting Strokes (-4). Sungjae Im finished T19 at 1-over par in his Tour Championship debut last year. In his last 12 rounds, he has no strokes gained stats that rank in the top-10, and overall his SG: Total ranks No. 28 in his last 12 rounds covering four events since the PGA Championship.

Hideki Matsuyama: Starting Strokes (-4). Hideki enters off a third place finish in the BMW Championship and was tied for the lead into Sunday playing alongside Dustin Johnson. Matsuyama’s tee-to-green game is elite, but putting problems have continued to hinder his hopes for more wins and high finishes. Matsuyama ranks 178th in SG: Putting this season, and in his last 12 rounds at East Lake, Matsuyama ranks dead last of the players returning this week. However, Hideki is No. 1 in SG: Approach at East Lake over his last 12 rounds and he finished top-10 each of the last two years.

Tour Championship odds

Winner (Bonus Strokes applied)

Game
09/04/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Dustin Johnson
Bet now
+200
Bet now
+185
Bet now
+200
Jon Rahm
Bet now
+300
Bet now
+280
Bet now
+275
Justin Thomas
Bet now
+525
Bet now
+550
Bet now
+550
Webb Simpson
Bet now
+1000
Bet now
+1000
Bet now
+1100
Collin Morikawa
Bet now
+2300
Bet now
+1800
Bet now
+2000
Bryson Dechambeau
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2200
Bet now
+2200
Rory McIlroy
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2000
Bet now
+2500
Xander Schauffele
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2200
Bet now
+2500
Daniel Berger
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+2200
Bet now
+2800
Hideki Matsuyama
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+2700
Bet now
+3300
Tony Finau
Bet now
+5500
Bet now
+4200
Bet now
+6000
Harris English
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+6600
Patrick Reed
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+6600
Sungjae Im
Bet now
+8500
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+7000
Scottie Scheffler
Bet now
+9000
Bet now
+6500
Bet now
+8000
Tyrrell Hatton
Bet now
+11000
Bet now
+9000
Bet now
+10000
Brendon Todd
Bet now
+11000
Bet now
+8000
Bet now
+8000
Kevin Kisner
Bet now
+15000
Bet now
+10000
Bet now
+3500
Joaquin Niemann
Bet now
+15000
Bet now
+10000
Bet now
+15000
Abraham Ancer
Bet now
+20000
Bet now
+21000
Bet now
+5500
Sebastian Munoz
Bet now
+20000
Bet now
+17000
Bet now
+15000
Viktor Hovland
Bet now
+20000
Bet now
+17000
Bet now
+3300
Billy Horschel
Bet now
+22500
Bet now
+15000
Bet now
+20000
Kevin Na
Bet now
+30000
Bet now
+32000
Bet now
+20000
Lanto Griffin
Bet now
+40000
Bet now
+32000
Bet now
+30000
Ryan Palmer
Bet now
+40000
Bet now
+27000
Bet now
+35000
Cameron Champ
Bet now
+60000
Bet now
+32000
Bet now
+40000
Mackenzie Huges
Bet now
+60000
Bet now
+42000
Bet now
+40000
Marc Leishman
Bet now
+60000
Bet now
+50000
Bet now
+50000
Cameron Smith
Bet now
+60000
Bet now
+32000
Bet now
+50000

View odds for every golfer at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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