2023 TOUR Championship Bets: Final Thoughts, Golf Betting Card
The PGA TOUR’s FedEx Cup Playoffs comes to a dramatic conclusion this Thursday for the season finale, the TOUR Championship. The top-30 remaining players will compete for the biggest purses of the year, and TOUR Champion honors in this unique staggered-start format. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm are the favorites this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite TOUR Championship bets among all the golf odds offered this week. Below you’ll find the best sports betting odds available on each player.
This is it, the final event of the 2023 PGA TOUR season, as the 30 best remaining players will take a crack at East Lake under its unique staggered start format for the 2023 TOUR Championship. The 2023 wrap-around season has been a rewarding one with fond memories, as we tallied up a total of 10 outright winners (special shoutout to Tom Kim, Russell Henley, and Tony Finau for their 2022 contributions). I tally up my ROI on the calendar year, however, so be sure to look out for my year in review post later this December!
Looking ahead to East Lake, this format may be the least compelling one to sweat all season from a golf betting standpoint. The staggered stroke handicap gives further advantage to the best players over the course of the season, and makes it nearly impossible for about half of this field of 30 to catch Scottie Scheffler and his -10 head start. It’s an important reminder, however, that this is an event for the players, not the fans, and that a format like this is designed to reward the body of work of a full season, appropriately giving a player like Scottie Scheffler the best chance to claim the $18M grand prize to first place.
So while a bit ironic that the conclusion to the season with the greatest purse of the year is actually the least compelling from a fan or betting standpoint, I’d be remiss not to have a small piece of action in this limited 30-man field. Ahead we’ll go over my final bets for the 2023 TOUR Championship.
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HOW I BUILT MY TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING CARD
Try as I may to come up with a full card of props and first round leaders, it simply felt forced to pull the trigger on any markets beyond outrights in the Shadow Leaderboard (Without Starting Strokes). That makes for an anti-climactic finish, as even a bet graded as a “win” this week will not be celebrated that way by the player. But, if it pays out the same as a standard outright, we will take it!
Last year gave us double heartbreak, as Sungjae Im entered the 72nd hole (an easy par-5) tied with Rory McIlroy for the shadow leaderboard lead. Sungjae was one of a handful of players to not birdie the final hole, and was ultimately passed by McIlroy after he hammered his approach shot into the grandstands and received free relief for an easy up and down birdie. In doing so, he also surpassed Scottie Scheffler for the outright lead, who I’d staked my full prop bet allocations behind.
So, after that double whammy in 2022, I’m taking my medicine on the props and sticking to a full card of outrights in the “without starting strokes” market for this field of just 30 players.
- Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
Click on any of the TOUR Championship odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state.
TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP BETS (WITHOUT STARTING STROKES): OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)
Max Homa
My Bet: +1800
Best Available Odds: +1400
The season may be ending at a bad time for Homa, as he continues to gradually improve week-over-week. Over his last five starts, these are his finishes in order: T21, T12, T10, T6, T5. Where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire with Homa, and his elite combination of ball striking and putting sets him up well to fire the low 72-hole score at East Lake.
Although known as a west coast Poa specialist, Homa has had some underrated success on Bermuda greens as well, with three top-15 finishes this season between the Arnold Palmer Invitational, THE PLAYERS, and the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Impressing with a T5 finish in his TOUR Championship debut last year, I like Homa’s chances to improve on that finish in 2023.
Tyrrell Hatton
My Bet: +3000
Best Available Odds: +2800
A couple of duds in the first two FedEx Cup Playoff events have drifted Hatton’s to the 30-1 odds range, which is value we haven’t even seen in full field majors this year. I’m comfortable buying low on the long-term form here with Hatton, who’s just closed out one of the best statistical seasons of his career, even if he’s still chasing his first PGA TOUR win since 2020.
Hatton’s contended regularly, placing inside the top-10 seven times this season, and primarily doing so on Bermuda courses. Hatton’s best finish this year came in his runner up at THE PLAYERS, and he added additional top-5s at the Wells Fargo Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational to further justify his case to contend on Bermuda greens among difficult fields. Averaging more than a half stroke gained across all four strokes gained categories this season, I like the value here on Hatton as he looks to improve on his T7 finish the last time he made the trip to Atlanta in 2020.
Russell Henley
My Bet: +3000
Best Available Odds: +3500
The Georgia Bulldog and native should feel at home in Atlanta this week, even though this marks his first appearance at East Lake since 2017. Henley’s capitalized on his chances in the Peach State, however, as he’s finished T12 and T3 in his two prior appearances at the TOUR Championship. There’s always concerns about Henley’s ability to close out a tournament, which is why the “Shadow Leaderboard” market feels like an ideal spot to back him.
With three consecutive top-10 finishes across the Wyndham Championship, FedEx St Jude Championship, and BMW Championship, Henley is one of the hottest players in this field, trying to cash in on a longshot case to back into the USA Ryder Cup team.
Sepp Straka
My Bet: +12500
Best Available Odds: +8000
Like Henley, Straka is another Georgia bulldog who should relish the homecoming trip back to East Lake. Perhaps the most volatile player on the PGA TOUR, Straka has never had to lean on hot form to trend into his wins. Case in point, leading into the 2022 FedEx Cup Playoffs, Straka carried a streak of six consecutive missed cuts before taking Will Zalatoris to a playoff at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. With that in mind, it seems like an ideal spot to buy low on the triple-digit odds dip in this limited field in the midst of a poor three week stretch leading in.
Straka impressed last year in his TOUR Championship debut with a T7 finish. Motivated to perform in front of a crowd of local supporters with spot on the European Ryder Cup team and millions of dollars on the line, I think we can expect Straka to give his best crack at it this week.
TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s TOUR Championship bets. Best of luck this week with your own TOUR Championship bets. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter. And thank you so much for reading all season long.
Tour Championship Odds (Without Starting Strokes)
Tour Championship Odds (With Starting Strokes)
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