We just can’t have one normal week in this 2022 PGA TOUR season. As we coasted into the season finale and began to look at possible 29-man TOUR Championship bets, Jay Monahan dropped a colossal news flash about the upcoming foundational changes to the TOUR.
We have plenty of time in the “offseason” to digest the changes for the upcoming year. In short, I love it. It looks as though the elite players who drive the PGA TOUR’s profitability and popularity will receive proportionally better compensation. The lower-tier players who’ve earned full status will secure the safety of a guaranteed salary while still having the same opportunities to play themselves into the top-tier tournaments. And the fans will get to see all of the best players competing against one another more regularly. I’m sure the details of the 2023 season will continue to evolve between now and the Presidents Cup. But for now, we should feel excited as golf fans and golf bettors.
Shifting focus to the tournament ahead, we see limited betting value in such a small field with staggered strokes to start. But the stakes are still at an all-time high with Scottie Scheffler vying to pick up his fifth win of the season and secure TOUR Champion and Player of the Year honors. East Lake is a beautiful course with challenging risk-reward holes and should offer a stern T2G test with low four-round scores typically netting between -13 to -15 over the years.
Below we’ll go through my final betting card for the 2022 TOUR Championship. Click the odds anywhere in this article to bet the best available prices in your state now.
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HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD
As mentioned, it’s really not an appealing week to bet at the TOUR Championship given the nuances of the format and severely limited field. With that in mind, I’ve brought the overall units down by removing FRL and placement bets from the card. We’ll instead go big on outrights between the standard and staggered scoring formats.
Last year, the low four-round scoring honors were shared between Jon Rahm and Kevin Na at -15. That tells me any player in the top 30 of the FedEx Cup Standings at the end of a long season can shoot the lowest score, regardless of course fit. In theory, East Lake suits the best T2G players with an emphasis on long iron approaches from 200+ yards. It also features the most narrow fairways on TOUR however, so a fairway finder like Na can gain an edge at this positional course.
I prioritized the standard low four-round scoring markets, with a mix of players either elite with their long irons and scoring in difficult conditions, or accurate players off the tee at long odds. Remember, such markets don’t take into account the staggered starting scores.
Here’s how the unit allocations shook out for this week.
- Outrights (Staggered) – 1.5U in to pay 3.4U each
- Outrights (Shadow) – 3U in to pay 24U each
Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.
TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: SCATTERED LEADERBOARD OUTRIGHTS (1.5 UNITS)
My Bet: +225
Best Odds Still Available (all as of Wednesday evening): +225
I believe that Scottie Scheffler will win the TOUR Championship, and I’m rooting for him to as the most deserving over the course of this long season. Scheffler’s game travels well regardless of the course fit, but it’s encouraging to see he’s found success at this event with a T5 finish in his 2020 debut. After some inconsistent play to close out the season, Scheffler seems to have found his gear again after posting a T3 finish at last week’s BMW Championship. I’m really not drawn to this betting market, so while I’m not going heavy on this outright, I expect it will be a tall order for the other 28 men in the field to catch Scottie, starting as far as 10 strokes back.
TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: SHADOW LEADERBOARD OUTRIGHTS (3.0 UNITS)
My Bet: +2200
Best Odds Still Available: +2200
Im has rapidly developed experience at East Lake, making it through to the TOUR Championship in each of his first four seasons on TOUR. The results haven’t been too inspiring to this point, highlighted by a T11 in 2020. But, he’ll enter this week in the best form yet. He has now strung together four consecutive T15 finishes to close out his season, including runner-up finishes at the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship. It’s always a good idea to back Im on Bermuda greens, especially in his new hometown of Atlanta.
My Bet: +3000
Best Odds Still Available: +3000
Viktor Hovland has been all over the place this season. At times, he was the best player in the world in terms of SG: APP and SG: Ball Striking and picked up three international wins to kickstart 2022 season. Around that stretch of dominance however, he’s needed to overcome an around-the-green skillset that’s been just about as bad as my own. That’s given me pause to back him in more difficult conditions where missing greens is inevitable, but there seems to be growing room for optimism now. Hovland has gained strokes around the green in two of his last three starts, and was positive around the greens in his 2021 TOUR Championship appearance, where he finished T5. A collegiate winner at the East Lake Cup, he possesses the skillsets to go low on this course at a great value.
My Bet: +3500
Best Odds Still Available: +3500
Adam Scott continues to trend in the right direction in the midst of this resurgent 2022 season which has landed him amongst the 30 best remaining players on TOUR. Scott looked excellent at the BMW Championship on a great course fit which rewarded length off the tee and proficiency on long-range approaches. He’ll find a similar formula in store yet again at East Lake, where Scott’s resume reads as well as anyone’s. He won at the 2006 TOUR Championship and has finished inside the top 10 in six of his last 10 appearances. With T5 finishes in the first two legs of the 2022 FedEx Cup events, he looks poised to finish on a high note.
My Bet: +9000
Best Odds Still Available: +9000
In the shadow leaderboard market, the outright bombs are as viable this week as any other on the season. Players toward the bottom of the staggered start list, like Poston, should play aggressively and move as far up the leaderboard as possible, even if an outright win is likely out of reach. In that sense, Poston can follow the Kevin Na model and charge up by leaning on his driving accuracy and elite putting on Bermuda greens. He’s won once before on a Bermuda Donald Ross course in Sedgefield CC. I’m happy to take a chance on long 90-to-1 odds here.
My Bet: +25000
Best Odds Still Available: +12500
Sepp Straka was my spotlight player of the week, mainly for narrative reasons like his affinity for Coca-Cola and ties to the Peach State. And while I certainly do not think he deserves to have the longest odds in this field, I would truthfully bet any player at 250-1 odds in a field of 29. When that player has already won on the PGA TOUR this season, is two starts removed from a playoff loss on a comp course, and is most proficient on long Bermuda courses, you can expect I’ll be backing him.
TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: THE CARD
That’ll do it for my 2022 TOUR Championship bets, and for the 2022 season. Thanks as always for reading along. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you on the other side, for the 2023 PGA TOUR season.