Tottenham Hotspur Vs. AC Milan: 2022-23 Champions League Round Of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on March 8, 2023
Champions league odds

The UEFA Champions League round of 16 continues on Wednesday, March 8 with Tottenham Hotspur vs. AC Milan. Bettors can catch the broadcast at 3 p.m. EST on various streaming platforms like fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. AC Milan has the edge after taking a 1-0 win in the first leg at home. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

Tottenham Vs. AC Milan Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 

If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes. 

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

Tottenham Hotspur Team Preview

If Tottenham is to finally end a trophy drought that has just moved past 15 years, they must do things the hard way. Not only in the sense of winning the Champions League outright but also in their upcoming second meeting with AC Milan.

With just a goal separating the two teams, Tottenham will still believe that they are in the tie. Now though, that belief must become progress.

Something that they couldn’t find in the FA Cup recently. They failed to show respect to Sheffield United, and the underdogs moved on to the last eight of the competition at Spurs’ expense.

The North London outfit will be keen to avoid a repeat on Wednesday night. Their fans are already beginning to get restless after one knockout tournament disaster. They can ideally do without another in double quick time.

There is also the neat subplot of this possibly being Harry Kane’s last opportunity to win a trophy with Tottenham. The club does not want to lose him in the summer, and the forward does not want to exit the Champions League so early.

Could he and his teammates rise to the occasion? With a top-four Premier League finish still in the balance, a return to next season’s edition of the competition is by no means guaranteed either.

AC Milan Team Preview

AC Milan finds itself in the box seat before their visit to North London. At the same time, Stefano Pioli and his players must remain aware that the task at hand has only been half done.

A 1-0 win at the San Siro should certainly not be overlooked. But at the same time, one wonders if the Italians regret not putting their opposition to the sword. Could a waste of chances come back to haunt them on Wednesday?

That is the concern with just a slender lead to take into the second leg. And it also offers another conundrum for manager Pioli. Does he roll the dice and go for broke or try and protect what he already has?

Not an easy decision to make and one that could be influenced by whether the visitors can get the opening goal of the evening. Should Tottenham’s deficit become doubled, then the red and black half of Milan can start to apply the brakes. 

They have done no such thing on a domestic front. If anything, they’ve jammed the accelerator pedal instead. Three successive wins in Serie A at the time of writing, and currently third in the table.

Admittedly, this AC Milan is not at the same level as the vintage editions of a decade or generation ago. However, they are certainly not a team to be underestimated and would love nothing more than to claim an English scalp in Europe.

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Since the UCL draws for new matchups after the round of 16, there’s no set bracket for fans to follow just yet.

Tottenham Hotspur Vs. AC Milan Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

AC Milan7137+610.57.8+2.7

Matchup History

There have been five previous continental clashes between Tottenham and AC Milan. In that quintet, the Italian outfit has picked up just one win. However, that success happened only a couple of few ago, and it has given them an advantage going into the second leg. 

The last time AC Milan came to North London was back in 2010, as the two sides drew 0-0 at White Hart Lane. A result that was good enough for Spurs to advance 13 years ago. Should the same happen again on Wednesday, the San Siro outfit will move on.

Tottenham Hotspur Vs. AC Milan Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Tottenham To Advance: +135

After being dumped out of the English FA Cup by second-tier outfit Sheffield United, Tottenham’s hopes of winning a trophy and ending their now 15-year drought rest on success in the Champions League.

An order that has certainly become taller after their 1-0 first-leg defeat at the San Siro. And with a deficit to reverse, stand-in manager Cristian Stellini must play his strongest team possible. The Italian decided not to do so in the shock cup loss to the Blades. And with a hopeful lesson learned before this coming Wednesday, I am putting my faith in Tottenham coming good and reaching the last of this season’s competition.

Because although their new stadium has been known to be a bit quiet at times, it certainly has a habit of coming alive on European nights. I think home advantage will be enough to reverse the wrongs of Valentine’s Day.

Especially as the North London outfit has won each of their last three Premier League games at home, and perhaps more importantly have kept clean sheets in each. 

Not only that, but should they concede, this first selection will still remain active in extra time or even penalties. A 2-1 home win would be OK to take the tie to 30 extra minutes. And if that occurs, who knows what might happen after that?

Tottenham Win 2-0: +775

As mentioned above, a 2-1 would be a fine 90-minute scoreline as far as Tottenham are concerned. Then again, a 2-0 win for Spurs in front of their own supporters would be even better. Better for them, better for me, and anyone else who takes on this second tip.

Because if the North London outfit can record a 2-0 home win on Wednesday night, it means staving off the need for extra time and maybe even penalties. The extra 30 minutes could await if required, but Tottenham would prefer to do without.

Admittedly the upcoming hosts have been known as a second-half team in recent months — that is, if they turn up at all. And even if the deadlock is yet to be broken at the interval, they still have plenty of time to score two unanswered goals.

The key element in this wager: AC Milan cannot score at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Manchester City and Chelsea have both been foiled here in the past few weeks, so there is no reason the Italian outfit cannot follow.

Spurs have also recorded 2-0 wins over West Ham and Chelsea in February, and all these goals came after the break. They have plenty of experience in recording this exact scoreline and this experience will stand them in good stead for Wednesday.

With just a one-goal margin of victory for Milan in the first leg, they may feel that they failed to land the knockout blow when they truly could. If Spurs can land a one-two combination of their own, a big win will likely result.

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