Special Tom Brady Prop Bets For The GOAT’s New England Homecoming

Written By Eli Hershkovich on September 28, 2021 - Last Updated on September 29, 2021
tom brady prop bets

Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady stands just 68 yards behind Drew Brees for the most passing yards in NFL history, and DraftKings Sportsbook has posted Tom Brady prop bets for his highly-anticipated return to New England on Sunday night.

For starters, you can wager on the number of completions Brady will need to climb over 67.5 passing yards and which Tampa Bay receiver will haul in the record-breaking catch.

Tampa Bay is currently a seven-point favorite in this matchup while New England is on the moneyline.

Special Tom Brady Prop Bets For Sunday Night Football

DK has released six Tom Brady prop bets under a special ‘Brady Bets’ tab on the app for the must-see TV matchup against his former head coach Bill Belichick in Foxborough. You can bet on them below by clicking on the tab for each prop, then clicking on the odds.

Completions To Go Over 67.5 Pass Yds
Over 443.5 Pass Yds (Career-High in Foxboro)
Over 6.5 Pass TD (Career-High in Foxboro)
Over 67.5 1Q Pass Yds
Player To Catch Record-Breaking Pass

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Over 5.5
Bet now
-140
Under 5.5
Bet now
+110

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Yes
Bet now
+1200

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Yes
Bet now
+1800

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Yes
Bet now
-220
No
Bet now
+150

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Chris Godwin
Bet now
+330
Mike Evans
Bet now
+400
Antonio Brown
Bet now
+450
Cameron Brate
Bet now
+550
Leonard Fournette
Bet now
+750
Tyler Johnson
Bet now
+900
O.J. Howard
Bet now
+800
Ronald Jones II
Bet now
+3000
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Bet now
+8000
Jaydon Mickens
Bet now
+4000
Jaelon Darden
Bet now
+8000
Tom Brady
Bet now
+10000

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Brady’s illustrious career with the Patriots ended with dud in Jan. 2020 — a wild-card round loss to the Titans as a five-point favorite — in which he threw a pick-six on his last pass attempt.

Keep in mind, plenty of variance can occur with these types of betting markets. For instance, there’s a 69.2 percent implied probability for Brady to go over 67.5 passing yards in the first quarter.

But that could easily be forgotten if Mac Jones strings together a methodical drive versus a banged-up Buccaneers secondary and Brady proceeds to go three-and-out.

Nevertheless, let’s dive into Brady’s splits to see where you should look if you’re planning on betting any of these markets.

Tom Brady Statistical Deep-Dive

Regarding the number of completions needed to break the record, Brady has averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season — good for No. 17 in the NFL.

The 22-year veteran has gone over the first quarter prop in two of his first three games this season, only failing to do so in Tampa Bay’s Week 3 loss to the Rams.

While the Patriots are tied for the fifth-fewest opponents’ yards per pass attempt (5.9 YPA), they’ve matched up against Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson and Jameis Winston. None of their passing attacks are nearly as explosive as Brady’s.

Keep an eye on the status of wide receiver Antonio Brown’s (COVID-19 list), too, who missed the Buccaneers’ last game. Despite the two-game sample size, Brown owns the league’s sixth-highest target rate (33.3 percent). He’s listed at +500 to catch Brady’s recording-breaking pass.

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich