Tom versus Father Time has been a battle oft-debated for the past half decade. So far, Tom’s holding off his ultimate opponent, and DraftKings Sportsbook is projected a lot more Tom Brady passing yards in his age 44 season.
Below, you’ll find a breakdown of the Tom Brady passing yards projection, along with a case for betting the over and a case for betting the under.
Tom Brady Season-Long Passing Props
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Tom Brady is projected for passing yards this coming season, a pace of 270.6 yards per game over the course of 17 games (keep in mind, the NFL plays one more regular season game this coming season). One major note with quarterback projections – especially stars. They’re usually projected for one game less than the total possible games played. So in this case, let’s say Brady is projected for 287.5 yards per game over 16 games.
The reasoning behind 16 games, not 17, is under the assumption that he could sit out the final regular season game of the year with the Buccaneers having solidified their playoff position. It’s also a hedge against injury, especially a concussion, strain, or other injury that could bench Brady for just a game or two.
Related: NFL Week 1 Lines
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The Case For Betting The Over
We’ll be upfront– there’s a lot of substance to betting this over.
First and most importantly, Brady did this a season ago already. With one fewer game, no offseason, and a slow start, he finished with 4,633 yards in the regular season. It took Brady four games to hit 300 yards with Tampa Bay and he failed to pass for 200 yards twice during the season. Through all of that, he still came out on the other side with more than 4,500 yards. He’s eclipsed 4,500 yards six times in his career, with five of those times coming in the last ten seasons.
Second and most obviously, Brady gets an extra game to hit the mark (that one should be self-explanatory).
It’s another year under head coach Bruce Arians, who let Brady run hog wild last season under his high-flying offense. As a head coach, Arians has produced a top-10 passer in terms of yards in six of eight seasons, including a top finish in Jameis Winston in 2019. The Bucs also ranked top 10 in pass ratio in 2020 and seventh in 2019.
The last major factor that could nudge Brady’s passing totals to the over is that Tampa Bay returns all 11 starters on offense from its Super Bowl team and a handful of role players. Besides Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, the Bucs also re-signed Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and Leonard Fournette. He has more weapons than almost any other QB in the NFL.
Side note: Brady is also just to lead the NFL is passing yards in 2021.
The Case For Betting The Under
The major factor that could sway this to the under should be weighted more than almost any other factor – the Bucs’ strength of schedule.
Based on yards, completions, and touchdowns allowed last season, Tampa Bay faces the fourth-toughest schedule for quarterbacks in the NFL. Outside of their division, Tampa Bay faces the Rams, Dolphins, Bears, Washington and Colts, all of which ranked in the top 10 in EPA allowed last season. They also see the Saints twice, who finished fourth in the category last year.
The other factor, which could be foolhardy to buy into too much, is that Father Time always wins. Other NFL legends like Brett Favre and Payton Manning had their final seasons derailed by nagging or major injury. Brady, while on another planet in terms of defying age, may hit his career ceiling any season. So, why not this one?
Tom Brady Passing Yards: Where To Go From Here?
Time hasn’t caught up to Tom Brady yet. He’s dodged age and expectations for years, but none moreso than last season, despite a slew of new COVID-19 factors that could have worked against him. When pit against the odds, Tom Brady wins.
The combination of additional chemistry between his weapons and his coach mixed with a proven track record from both Brady and Arians and, finally, an extra game, 4500.5 yards could leave room for a higher ceiling. Barring missing more than a game due to injury, Tom Brady should be on track to contend for this over.