TNF Week 12 Parlay Picks and Player Props: Texans Host Bills in Must-Win Game
Thursday Night Football returns tonight with two NFL teams that have a bit of a one-sided history against one another. The 7-3 Buffalo Bills hit the road to face the 5-5 Houston Texans.
The Texans have won six of their last eight meetings against the Bills, most notably 22-19 in the 2019 Wild Card Game. Tonight, Houston comes in one game back of AFC South rivals Jacksonville for the final wild card spot in the AFC, winning five of their last seven after starting the season 0-3.
Meanwhile, the Bills have had an underwhelming season, and their record is extremely unconvincing. Despite already having achieved seven wins, a loss would see them only a game ahead of the rest of the postseason contenders. Their schedule isn't forgiving, still needing to face the Steelers, Patriots, and Eagles.
Bills vs Texans
While the Texans haven't been very impressive offensively, especially since Davis Mills took over for the injured C.J. Stroud, Houston's defense is the best in football. They've allowed a league-low 16.3 points per game, a league-low 258.1 yards per game, and are number three in both passing and rushing defense.
On the other side of the football, the Bills have been notoriously terrible against the run, allowing 153 rushing yards per game. Only the Bengals (160.9ypg) have fared worse. While the Bills are number two against the pass, much of that has to do with offenses shifting their game plans to running the football.
We can expect to see a lot of Woody Marks tonight. The fourth-round rookie running back has done fine stepping up as the Texans' lead back after Joe Mixon's offseason foot/ankle injury. While Nick Chubb was expected to be the number two back, it appears age is beginning to catch up with him a bit. Regardless, both backs should be heavily involved against Buffalo's weak run D.
The Bills will likely need Josh Allen to be a one-man show again, though it will be hard to replicate his three passing touchdown, three rushing touchdown performance against the Buccaneers. Keon Coleman is back from a one-game team suspension due to repeatedly showing up late for team meetings. He'll need to step up, as Buffalo will be without Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, and Mecole Hardman.
Keon Coleman Needs to Step Up
Keon Coleman has been the subject of the grief of Bills fans ever since they purposefully traded down to select him instead of WR Xavier Worthy, who has been an absolute stud for the new-age rival Kansas City Chiefs.
Coleman, widely expected to be Buffalo's WR1, has been held to three catches or less in seven of nine games this season. After showing up late for another team meeting, Bills head coach Sean McDermott benched the second-year wideout. With all of Buffalo's injuries, he has a chance to be a star tonight.
“You grow from it, we can move forward. You don’t grow from it, it’s hard to move forward,” McDermott said, regarding Coleman's antics. "Ultimately, it comes down to developing trust and that trust that your teammates have in you. And that trust builds through repetition and consistency.
“That’s the direction we need him to go and where we believe he will go.”
McDermott isn't the only one upset with Coleman, as captain Dion Dawkins gave him a piece of his mind after the Buccaneers victory.
"I spoke to Keon before this game (against Tampa Bay). I told him, ‘Bro, don’t even worry about it. Everybody goes through a different journey, right? Let's just say that this is the last time. Let's just move forward.' And he said, 'I’m with you.'
"That's all we need, right? Nobody's perfect, but in this league, we need guys to come on, and Keon knows, right?
"Now, he's in the hot seat, and he needs to come on and show up for us. Pats on the back are over with, and it's time for him to grow up, and he knows it."
It's Game Time
Ahead of Thursday's contest, we've done our research to give you the best chance to win big. Take advantage of sportsbook promos to get maximum value for your picks tonight. Here are three of our favorite TNF Week 12 parlay picks. You can tail our parlays at some of our favorite sportsbooks.
Odds via FanDuel: Bills -5.5 (ML: Bills -275, Texans +225 | Over/Under: 43.5)
Texans Dominate the Ground Game - Parlay
📊 Parlay Odds: +5446 (via FanDuel) ⭐
- Leg 1: Texans ML
- Leg 2: Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown
- Leg 3: Woody Marks 80+ Rushing Yards
- Leg 4: Nick Chubb 40+ Rushing Yards
- Leg 5: Under 43.5
At nearly 55:1, we couldn't be more excited about this parlay. We already have the Texans winning a low-scoring affair tonight, and that'll have to happen with Houston dominating both the ground game and on defense.
Get $300 Back in Bonus Bets Every Day For 10 Days While Woody Marks hasn't run for 70 yards or more this season, we're fully expecting to have himself a fantastic game. The Bills have allowed 100+ yards on the ground in eight of ten games this season, allowing 189+ rushing yards five times.
Bills Win a Close One - Parlay
📊 Parlay Odds: +3750 (via Caesars Sportsbook) ⭐
- Leg 1: Texans +6
- Leg 2: Bills ML
- Leg 3: Under 43.5
- Leg 4: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown
- Leg 5: James Cook Anytime Touchdown
While it would take some exact science for this parlay to work out, given the low over/under total, I think this one has a shot. I don't see Josh Allen throwing a touchdown tonight against this fantastic defense. Allen was denied a passing touchdown earlier in the year against a stingy Jets defense, and they'll likely have to win ugly to knock off this Texans team.
Another Josh Allen MVP Game - Player Prop Parlay
📊 Parlay Odds: +1300 (via DraftKings) ⭐
- Leg 1: Bills -5.5
- Leg 2: Over 43.5
- Leg 3: Josh Allen 2+ Rushing/Receiving Touchdowns
- Leg 4: Josh Allen 50+ Rushing Yards
It's going to be hard for Josh Allen to throw the ball tonight. He's without several of his offensive weapons and the Texans haven't allowed a 200+ yard passing performance since Week 3. In fact, Houston hasn't allowed more than 224 passing yards this entire season.
He'll have to use his legs and feed James Cook. After running for three touchdowns last week, we're gonna see Allen run for two tonight.
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