Patriots Vs. Steelers TNF Player Prop Bets, SGP Picks: Lowest Over/Under In Years

Written By Jeffrey Schreiber | Last Updated
tnf player props

NFL same-game parlays and player props are now available at Thursday Night Football’s best NFL betting sites. NFL Week 14 kicks off with an AFC showdown between the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are point home favorites. The Over/Under for this game is set at , the lowest total in an NFL game since 2004. The Steelers beat the Bears that day 21-9, and the Over/Under was a push. We must be creative and conservative this time in betting TNF player prop odds.

Below, we’ll highlight NFL TNF player props and potential Same Game Parlay strategies.

Thursday Night Football Player Props

Patriots logo Patriots NE
Steelers logo Steelers PIT
Offense Ranking OFF RNK N/A N/A
Defense Ranking DEF RNK N/A N/A
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG

nfl Same game parlay STRATEGY

The key to long-term profitability in SGP betting is correlation. Getting the broad story of a game correct makes it easier to hit a parlay, as you’re not cheering for disparate and potentially even contradictory things to happen. When reviewing winning SGP tickets, we can think backward and determine what game-script ideas and correlations went into constructing the parlay.

Bettors should be aware of the overall decline in scoring this year in the NFL, especially in island games. Primetime game total unders are now a remarkable 29-12 this season. We must be creative and conservative this week in betting NFL player prop odds.

If the Over/Under closes at 30, it’s the lowest total since the Bills vs. Dolphins in Week 6 of 2004. The last games under 30 were in Week 17 of 1993, with multiple games at 28 or 29.5.

Potential patriots at Steelers TNF player props

Mitchell Trubisky Interception:

Trubisky has taken 248 dropbacks over the past two seasons, completing 63.8% of his passes for 6.7 yards per pass attempt with a 2.6% touchdown rate. While these numbers are nothing to get excited about, they are better then fellow QB Kenny Pickett’s numbers.

The one area where Trubisky has been worse is interceptions. He has thrown an interception on 3.1% of his passes compared to a 1.8% rate for Pickett. Trubisky has thrown 45 career INTs in 67 career games.

Najee Harris Under Rushing Yards: O/U /

While Harris sustained the edge in running back snaps and opportunities in Week 13, this backfield remained somewhat split again. I will continue to fade the more inefficient running back in this offense. Jaylen Warren averaged 6.6 yards per run on his carries compared to 3.9 YPC for Harris.

This matchup is a daunting task for either back. Taking the under on the more inefficient runner in this spot seems optimal, especially as Harris comes in with the higher rushing line. New England is allowing the lowest rate of runs of five or more yards (25.6%) and rate of runs of 10 or more yards (6.5%) in the NFL. The Patriots are also the No. 1 rush defense by EPA and success rate in 2023. They are allowing a league-low 3.38 YPC to running backs.

JuJu Smith-Schuster Under Receiving Yards

The Patriots’ likely three-receiver set on TNF will feature DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton outside, with JuJu Smith-Schuster on the interior. Despite the edge in playing time in Week 13 among the WR group, Smith-Schuster managed just one catch for 11 yards. He has cleared 14 yards in one of his past eight games. The matchup against this Steelers secondary will be tough. Pittsburgh sits in the top ten for passing defense by EPA and DVOA this season.

Potential Same Game Parlay Legs

Under Total Points

Although this is by far the lowest game total of the season, it’s still viable to side with the under here. New England has held its last three opponents to 10 points or fewer. New England games are averaging a league-low 33.5 combined points per game. The Steelers’ style of play only adds to the argument here. Pittsburgh games are averaging 35.1 combined points per game, and they are 31st in the league.

Scoring touchdowns will be an issue for both teams in this game. 19.9% of the New England possessions have reached the red zone or scored prior, the lowest rate in the league. 22.9% of the Pittsburgh possessions have reached the red zone or scored prior, 29th in the league.

NFL Odds Boosts

Steelers, Dolphins, Bears, Lions All Win

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How To Find TNF Player Props & SGP Promos

Most SGP promos will require you to opt-in to receive the SGP promo benefits. We are seeing some bonus bets back SGP offers for all users at FanDuel and profit boost offers at bet365, DraftKings, and Caesars. BetMGM offers SGP insurance tokens for bonus bets back if one leg loses.

Thursday Night Football New User Sportsbook Promo Codes

If you do not have an account at one of the sportsbooks below, click PLAY NOW to lock in a sign-up bonus. We’ve ranked the best available here. Best of luck if you are wagering on NFL TNF player props this week!