NFL Week 11 Betting Preview: Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers

Written By Eli Hershkovich on November 17, 2022
Packers Titans Spread

The Green Bay Packers face off against the Tennessee Titans on Thursday, Nov. 17 at 8:20 p.m. ET. This primetime affair, the first on NFL Week 11 odds boards, showcases a Titans Packers spread of Green Bay , with Tennessee on the moneyline. The total is set at .

In this post, we’ll dive into everything you need to know before placing a bet on Thursday Night Football odds, including matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.

Titans – Packers Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the Titans Packers spread table above, click the dropdown menu to switch to moneylines or over/unders. 

Betting on the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A “plus” sign in front of the spread is the underdog, and a “minus” sign is the favorite. The Packers need to win by three points or more if you bet on them against the spread, as they’re priced as a three-point home favorite at most shops. Conversely, a spread bet on the Titans would need Tennessee to lose by at most two points or win outright.

The total is the number of combined points that the two teams will score. Bettors can bet “over” or “under” on how many total points will be scored in the game.

  • Join our NFL Discord channel to receive an immediate notification when any of our staff members places a bet, including on the Packers – Titans spread. Sign up under the #roles server.

Titans at Packers: Player Props

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. 

Titans at Packers: Betting News

As of Thursday, the Packers have accrued 81% of the spread handle and 52% of the tickets. This data comes from BetMGM Sportsbook, which is trading Green Bay at . Additional updates on the Falcons Panthers spread can be found below.

Titans at Packers: Weather Report

The weather forecast for Green Bay on Thursday is dry (overcast clouds) and calm (13 mph winds), with a high temperature of 23 degrees.

Titans at Packers: Injury News

Tennessee Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatus
Roger McCrearyCBCalfQuestionable
Kristian FultonCBHamstringProbable
David LongLBNeckProbable
Amani HookerDBShoulderQuestionable
Jeffery SimmonsDTAnkleQuestionable
Ryan TannehillQBAnkleProbable
Ben JonesCConcussionQuestionable
Elijah MoldenCBGroinProbable
Bud DupreeOLBHipQuestionable
Cody HollisterWRBackQuestionable
Lonnie Johnson Jr.CBHamstringQuestionable
Kevin StrongDEAnkleProbable
Caleb FarleyCBBackOut
Randy BullockKCalfQuestionable

Green Bay Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatus
Aaron RodgersQBRight thumbQuestionable
Jon RunyanOGKneeQuestionable
De’Vondre CampbellLBKneeQuestionable
Rasul DouglasCBCalfQuestionable
Allen LazardWRShoulderQuestionable
Preston SmithLBShoulderQuestionable
David BakhtiariOTKneeQuestionable
Aaron JonesRBShinQuestionable
Keisean NixonCBCalfQuestionable
Randall CobbWRAnkleQuestionable
Christian WatsonWRAnkleProbable
Kingsley EnagbareLBAnkleQuestionable
Shemar Jean-CharlesCBAnkleQuestionable

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Packers Offense Vs. Titans Defense

Packers OffenseStats (Rank)Titans Defense
18.5 (25)Points/Gm18.7 (8)
0.3 (19)Points/Play0.3 (1)
352.3 (13)Yards/Gm357.7 (23)
223.0 (16)Pass Yards/Gm272.6 (31)
129.3 (12)Rush Yards/Gm85.1 (2)
5.6 (11)Yards/Play5.5 (16)
6.4 (14)Yards/Pass6.7 (18)
4.9 (6)Yards/Rush3.9 (3)
40.3% (18)3rd Down %27.9% (1)
51.7% (23)Red Zone %52.0% (10)
15 (27)Turnovers13 (11)
20 (11)Sacks29 (4)

Titans Offense Vs. Packers Defense

Titans OffenseStats (Rank)Packers Defense
18.4 (26)Points/Gm21.6 (16)
0.3 (19)Points/Play0.4 (17)
281.7 (32)Yards/Gm320.3 (9)
148.2 (31)Pass Yards/Gm179.7 (3)
133.4 (9)Rush Yards/Gm140.6 (26)
5.0 (27)Yards/Play5.4 (13)
6.3 (17)Yards/Pass6.4 (11)
4.4 (18)Yards/Rush4.8 (26)
33.6% (28)3rd Down %32.7% (2)
76.2% (1)Red Zone %51.7% (8)
10 (8)Turnovers10 (20)
21 (14)Sacks19 (22)

TheLines Podcast: NFL Week 11 Betting Breakdown

For the audio-only version, subscribe to “Beat The Closing Line” on Apple Podcasts.

Titans at Packers: Betting Insights

Why Packers Can Cover The Spread

On the surface, Aaron Rodgers & Co. showcase one of the league’s most underwhelming offenses. Not only does Green Bay place No. 19 in regards to EPA per play, but Rodgers also owns the 23rd-ranked EPA + Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) Composite.

The latter metric considers contextual variables that determine whether a pass more or less likely to be completed.

Granted, Rodgers has played with a thumb injury ever since the Packers’ Week 6 loss to the Jets. Their underwhelming receiving core hasn’t helped the four-time NFL MVP, struggling to generate consistent separation. All-Pro offensive left tackle David Bakhtiari and left guard Elghton Jenkins have dealt with their respective injuries as well, allowing opposing defensive fronts to generate plenty of havoc of around Rodgers.

Nevertheless, the emergency of rookie wideout Christian Watson alleviated one of those concerns on Sunday, tallying a three-score performance in an upset win over the Cowboys. With an explosive playmaker finally at his disposal, Rodgers posted the highest CPOE among all quarterbacks in Week 10.

Although the Titans are yielding the 11th-lowest Dropback EPA, they’ve faced the likes of Russell Wilson, Davis Mills, Carson Wentz, and a banged-up Matt Ryan twice in recent games. This metric isn’t adjusted for the opponent, meaning that bettors may need to account for potential regression.

After snapping a five-game losing streak, look for Green Bay’s aerial attack to deliver in a must-win spot — with its playoff hopes in the balance. Mind you, the Vikings have built a 4.5-game lead in the NFC North. Hence, the Packers will need to fight their way back in the wild-care race in order to notch a postseason ticket.

Why Titans Can Cover The Spread

The Titans just keep covering spreads. There’s something about them that the market has had a hard time analyzing. What do they do well? They run it efficiently enough with Derrick Henry (No. 8 graded PFF rush offense, No. 8 in adjusted line yards) with a very slow-paced offense (32nd in neutral pace). Then, Tennessee couples that with the No. 1 rush defense by DVOA and the No. 5 pressure rate despite blitzing at only the 26th-highest rate.

Against the Packers’ 31st-ranked offense in situation neutral pace, it increases the opportunity for variance. Green Bay’s bottom three rush defense by Success Rate may only further keep Aaron Rodgers off the field to help the Titans stay inside the number here.

Related: Super Bowl 57 Odds

Final Thoughts

In a prime buy-low, sell-high spot, I bet Green Bay -2.5 (-110) on Monday, which you’ll find in our Discord betting channel. I’d play it up to -3 (-110). Good luck if you choose to bet the Titans – Packers spread or other odds this week.

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Eli Hershkovich

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