NBA Western Conference Finals: Odds On Timberwolves To Make History Vs. Mavericks?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
Timberwolves Odds

Ahead of the 2024 Western Conference Finals, the Minnesota Timberwolves odds were lined at -190 to advance to the league’s biggest stage. Since then, their odds have shifted in the wrong direction after the Dallas Mavericks’ odds snatched a 3-0 series lead. But after Minnesota’s thrilling Game 4 win, they upgraded their chances to become the first team in NBA playoff history to win four straight games after losing the first three. Let’s examine their latest NBA playoffs odds and NBA Finals odds.

Click on any NBA betting odds below to place a wager. These prices are the best available in your state.

timberwolves ODDS: Western Conference finals betting

The best Timberwolves odds to win the Western Conference are , according to the table above. It’s equivalent to an 18.5% implied probability. They were +1100 before avoiding elimination before their lone win in this series. Conversely, the Mavs are to reach the NBA Finals for the first time 2011.

For context, teams have gone 155-0 when taking a 3-0 series lead in a best-of-seven NBA playoff series. In other words, the comeback has never been fully completed. However, 15 of those series reached a Game 6, and four teams have forced a winner-take-all scenario by winning three straight games.

Most recently, the Boston Celtics forced a Game 7 after losing the first three games of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals to the eighth-seeded Miami Heat. Miami won the series finale in Boston as a 7.5-point underdog.

Correct series result
mavericks 4-2
Mavericks 4-3
timberwolves 4-3
Last Updated on 05.29.2024

Will The Tide Continue To Turn?

Ordinarily, teams ahead in these instances receive a dose of positive variance. Miami was no exception, making 58.8% of 34 wide-open 3-pointers (at least six feet of space) over the first three contests. Conversely, Boston generated a 32.6% clip in those situations.

Once both teams regressed in opposite directions, the Celtics evened the score.

Entering Game 4, the Timberwolves produced an identical clip on wide-open triples as the Celtics. Meanwhile, the Mavs tallied an eFG% of 58.1% — juxtaposed with an expected eFG% of 53%. In particular, they shot 45.3% on wide-open jumpers from deep.

Nevertheless, Luka Dončić & Co. only manufactured a 33.3% clip on wide-open 3-pointers on Tuesday, helping Minnesota extend the series. Chris Finch’s bunch also delivered down the stretch, with Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony-Towns combining for 13 of their final 16 points. The duo outscored Dončić and Kyrie Irving for the first time this series.

Towns’ three-game slump, shooting 11.8% of above-the-break 3-point shots, was halted via a 3-of-4 outing in those situations.

Key Injuries To Monitor

Mavs rookie center Dereck Lively II, who owns the highest net rating among all playoff participants with at least 20 minutes per game, missed Game 4 with a neck injury. Without one of their elite rim protectors, they surrendered a 43.5% clip in the paint (non-restricted area).

Lively is listed as questionable for Game 5, so his status is worth watching.

Meanwhile, Dončić (knee/ankle) has gone more under the radar because he’s playing through pain. He notched a series-low 42.9 eFG% on Tuesday, but fading any of his props is still risky.

Game 5 betting odds

If you are only interested in betting tonight’s do-or-die game for Timberwolves odds, click any markets below to place a wager.

For reference, they closed -4.5 in Game 1 and -6 in Game 2. The market steam for the latter affair was partially a product of Minnesota’s bounce-back opportunity. But the Timberwolves followed a similar script over the first three games, failing to execute down the stretch.

To continue their Game 4 momentum, Towns must rediscover his touch at the Target Center. His inefficiency hasn’t just surfaced in this series. This year, Towns’ eFG% is 20.6 percentage points higher in road playoff games than at home. If he spaces the floor well and stays out of foul trouble, Minnesota will have a higher probability of making NBA postseason history.

Towns’ points prop is set at after he scored 20+ points for the first time all series in Tuesday’s win.

Photo by Associated Press