TNG Same Game Parlay: Steelers At Browns Betting Strategy

Written By Brett Gibbons on September 22, 2022
same game parlay

The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) visit the Cleveland Browns (1-1) on Thursday Night Football for Week 3. Following an offensive showcase last week, sportsbooks have rolled back their offerings for same game parlay promotions. Despite fewer options for promos, there may still exist plenty of value and +EV plays for SGP this Thursday night. Let’s take a look.

Steelers at Browns full Thursday Night Football betting preview

Same Game Parlay Promo At FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel users can click PLAY NOW in the banner below and receive two No Sweat Same Game Parlay for Thursday Night Football. Once logged in, click the Promos button and Opt-In to the No Sweat SGP promotion. Place a 3+ Leg SGP with odds of at least +400. If your bet loses, get a refund up to $5 in free bets.

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Steelers At Browns Odds

To place a bet, click on the odds in the table below.

Find odds for the entire NFL Week 3 slate here

Steelers At Browns Same Game Parlay Strategy

Odds Movement

First, a quick note on the odds movement for this game. The Browns saw a point-and-a-half boost Monday afternoon, moving from -3.5 to -5 (now back down to ). That early Browns support came before defensive starters Jadaveon Clowney and Chase Winovich were declared out on Tuesday.

The total was also bet down from 41, where it bottomed out at 38 points (best current number: ).

An expectation for offensive struggles isn’t unwarranted. Mitchell Trubisky and the Steelers offense clocks in at 28th in dropback EPA and 29th in overall success rate. Still under the direction of Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland’s offense found success against the Jets defense, but proved to be incredibly mistake-prone still. Minkah Fitzpatrick and the Steelers defense have secured six turnovers this season.

Attacking Related Markets

If you’re looking to consistently beat NFL lines, it’s wise to look into less-attended markets. Looking into team totals, halves, and other props can boost your chances of cashing in on bets. With parlays, it’s all about maximizing each leg’s success rate.

It’s also about correlated legs, where if one leg cashes, it increases the chance of your other leg (or legs) cashing.

For example, if Pittsburgh is going to pull off the upset in Cleveland, it likely won’t be in an offensive shootout. Parlaying the Steelers (+160) and under 38.5 points (-110) pays out a maximum +396 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Conversely, you don’t want to pair unrelated or inverted markets even if the payout looks great. For example, taking over Najee Harris’ touchdown prop and the Browns -4.5 are inversely related; a strong performance on the ground likely indicates a Steelers elevated win probability.

Line Shopping And Calculating EV

To figure out whether or not a pre-bundled same game parlay is worth it, you need to calculate EV. To do this, search for an odds converter to find implied probability. For the above example, Steelers/Under (+396) has an implied probability of 20.16%. If you bet that individually at their best price, you’d get 19.1% (Steelers +172= 36.96%, Under 38.5 -107= 56.69%, multiplied together). With about a 1% difference here, you would be betting into a negative hold (-1.06%), but that’s with a large hit to potential payout ($396 in winnings vs. $265.46 individually).

Sometimes, pre-bundled SGP offerings claim to be odds boosts when bettors are really better off parlaying them at another book themselves or betting the legs individually. Be sure to cross-reference numbers before hitting “bet.”

Steelers At Browns Same Game Parlay Picks

In this game, a bigger Browns win is likely the result of the Steelers not finding the end zone. At FanDuel Sportsbook, I like pairing a Browns alternate line of -6.5 and under 38.5 points, resulting in a +283 price. Because of the risk with parlays, I’m only putting a fraction of a unit down on this, maybe a quarter unit (however, this is up to your own discretion).

When it comes to alternate lines, be conscious of key figures. A key figure when betting football is a number that’s more likely than others to result in a push; for the NFL, the most notable numbers are three and seven. Over the past five seasons, 20% of NFL games ended with a field goal differential and 15% of games ended with seven points’ difference.

This season, the Steelers have scored three offensive touchdowns. In their opening day game at Cincinnati, they turned five turnovers into 23 points, but six of those came by way of a Fitzpatrick pick six. Under Trubisky, this offense is cooked.

The inactives for Cleveland are more role players, although Clowney plays a pivotal role in the pass rush. Against the 30th-ranked OL (per Warren Sharp), Myles Garrett should be able to take advantage of his matchups. Ultimately, I expect this to be a very-low scoring affair and keeping the Browns under a touchdown with a little extra boost is exciting.

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Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons