Thursday night marks the opening to the 2022 NFL season. The Buffalo Bills travel to face the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams in our first peek at two championship-caliber teams. With this being an island game, sportsbooks are offering a plethora of same game parlay options. Below, we’ll look at TNF same game parlay (SGP) strategy for the Bills at Rams.
We’ll also compare odds offered in a SGP special versus what they would pay out at different books. Be sure to check out our betting coverage of the Bills at Rams, as well as odds and previews for every game this NFL season.
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Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams Odds
Bills At Rams TNF Same Game Parlay Strategy
When it comes to SGP strategy in general, there’s a lot you can do to move the odds of cashing in your favor. Most importantly, be sure to pick correlated legs of the parlay. For example, if you’re thinking the Bills at Rams is going to be an offensive showcase and want to include Over as a part of your parlay, it’s wise to couple that with over Matthew Stafford’s passing yardage () as well.
Conversely, four of the Bills’ six losses in the regular season last year came when Josh Allen attempted over 35 passes. So if you’re onto the Bills , you could lean under Allen’s passing attempts (). Correlated legs help you mathematically because one leg cashing greatly increases the probability that your second leg cashes.
Parlay Strategy 1: A High-Scoring Affair
Bills All Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White landed on the PUP list in camp and will not play in this game. While the Bills ended last season as the NFL’s top defense in EPA (-.114) and second in success rate allowed (41.9%), losing their top corner is a tough blow. The Rams roster one of the deepest receiving corps in the league, highlighted by Cooper Kupp and newly-acquired Allen Robinson II.
With Buffalo needing to replace two starting corners (note: starting CB Levi Wallace left in free agency), the Rams may see success through the air. If this game is going to be a high-scoring affair, coupling Over with Stafford’s passing yards prop would get you to +205 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
This same SGP would offer:
- +189 at Caesars Sportsbook
- +184 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- +210 at BetMGM (but you have to pay up for 280 yards or down for 245 yards)
Does This Bet Have Value?
Breaking even on a two-leg parlay like this one requires 74% success as opposed to 52.4%, so does this make sense to bet?
Using our NFL Player Props search tool, I found the best line for over Stafford’s yards is at FanDuel Sportsbook (270.5 over -114). -114 odds translate to a 53.27% implied success rate. DraftKings Sportsbook offers the best line slightly on over 51.5 points (-110), or a 52.38% implied success rate. The implied probability of hitting both of those individually are 27.9%, or about +258.
At +205, you’re betting into a massive negative EV market (+205 is 32.8%, or a -4.9% hold). Your monetary returns, though, would be greatly diminished betting each individually. Betting each leg on their own would yield about 43.6% of the winnings you could get with the higher-risk SGP.
Parlay Strategy 2: A Defensive Showcase
If everything above made you roll your eyes because there’s no way this game is high scoring, then this section is for you.
After all, the Bills and Rams both finished as top-10 defenses in EPA last season. With Von Miller trading hands from L.A. to Buffalo, the Bills defense appears just as, if not more formidable this season.
That said, if this is a low-scoring affair, which team is better equipped to whether the storm? A home dog is always a popular bet. In 2021, the Rams went 7-5 in games which they scored under 30 vs. just 3-5 for the Bills. While blindly betting on home underdogs is a sure-fire way to lose money, it may not be the worst consideration here.
Instead of risking a full game spread, if this is going to be a low-scoring game, it may be worth giving the Rams first half +0.5 (-110) a look parlayed with the first half under (26.5 -120). With home field advantage, the Rams may be more likely to hold a halftime lead or tie in a low-scoring affair.
FanDuel and DraftKings will allow you to pair these together in a SGP while BetMGM and Caesars do not. Your best price here is at FanDuel Sportsbook (+250). DraftKings offers the same parlay at +205.
Does This Bet Have Value?
At -120, going under the first half point total (26.5) has a 54.55% implied win probability at FanDuel. Coupled with the 52.38% implied win rate from the Rams covering 0.5 first half points, that’s an implied 28.6% win rate to hit both bets individually, or +250 odds.
Since the best available price on these offers +250, you’re mathematically better off betting them separately in case one of them doesn’t hit. Remember, you’re comparing your odds against a 74% success rate rather than 52.4%. Again, you’re sacrificing winnings, only in line to win a maximum 34.9% of what the parlay pays out.
In each case, it’s at the discretion of the bettor whether or not the added risk is worth the reward.
Check back each week for TNF same game parlay strategy during the NFL season.
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