2025 The Sentry Odds: PGA TOUR Preview For The Plantation Course at Kapalua

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
sentry odds

The new 2025 PGA TOUR season begins at long last in Maui. The new season begins at the Sentry on the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Find The Sentry odds at the best betting sites to increase your potential PGA TOUR golf betting payouts. Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Collin Morikawa project as the top favorites in the Sentry odds for this upcoming tournament.

The PGA TOUR returns from the shortest offseason in sports. Just seven weeks passed between the final event of the 2024 season and the 2025 Sentry.

As always, we have a compelling, top-heavy field to launch the new season. All winners and top-50 FedEx Cup finishers from the prior season get to punch their tickets to one of the most picturesque golf resorts in the country. Formerly known as the Sentry Tournament of Champions, an expanded field may open this event up to even more parity. Chris Kirk showed that with his surprise victory this time last year.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua rewards longer hitters, crafty short game around tabletop greens, and — assuming the calm conditions currently in the forecast — an ability to go low in easy scoring conditions. We’ll review the key facts and info about Kapalua ahead of betting the Sentry odds.

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The SENTRY ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Here are the favorites for the Sentry odds at golf betting sites this week. Scroll to the bottom of this post to compare odds for the entire field across betting apps in your state. And be sure to lock in the best sportsbook promo codes before making any wagers on the Sentry odds.

THE SENTRY FIELD AT A GLANCE

As of Monday morning, the 2025 Sentry field is set at 60 players. A total of 64 players had qualified for this year’s event by way of winning in the 2024 PGA TOUR season or reaching the 2024 BMW Championship as a top-50 player in the FedEx Cup Standings. Of that group, Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy, and Tommy Fleetwood opted out of a trip to paradise with a $20M purse on the line. Could not be me! Scheffler’s omission is a welcomed sight for the rest of the mortals on the PGA TOUR.

Looking at the field of 60, Xander Schauffele will now headline as the prohibitive favorite. Before breaking through with multiple major victories last season, Kapalua was always a comfort course for Schauffele. He has a victory and three additional top-10 finishes here since 2019. Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, and Patrick Cantlay round out the top tier of favorites this week.

Despite the extended layoff, several key players enter this week in less than 100% health (Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, and Ludvig Aberg).

Given the history of this event, it is a privilege to begin the year in Maui and a notable schedule adjustment for those who are not regular PGA TOUR winners. While the course may not require many practice reps, first-timers have notably struggled to adjust to the time zone difference and to playing competitive golf over the holiday season. Because of that, it’s typically a spot I look to fade debutants. Notable players making their Sentry debuts this week include Robert MacIntyre, Taylor Pendrith, Alex Noren, Max Greyserman, Maverick McNealy, and Davis Thompson.

Chris Kirk returns for his title defense this year, despite a precipitous fall since the first week of the 2024 season. Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas are the only other past winners in the field this week.

INTRODUCTION TO THE PLANTATION COURSE AT KAPALUA

The Plantation Course at Kapalua, which sits on the shores of Maui, Hawaii, is arguably the most luxurious resort golfers and their families get the chance to stay at the entire year – an appropriate reward.

The massive coastal property is one of the longest courses on the PGA TOUR at 7,596 yards. It features wide, undulating fairways and oversized tabletop greens. Heavily exposed to Maui’s coastline, wind and rain have played a significant factor in determining how the course will play.

Monitor The Weather

Over the past three years, soft and calm conditions led to a one-dimensional birdie fest. Chris Kirk, Jon Rahm, and Cam Smith won at -29, -27, and -34, respectively. In such conditions, this event drew the easiest scoring average on the PGA TOUR in each of the last three seasons.

Before 2022, however, stronger sustained winds led to more moderate scoring. In four of the last 11 years, the field median score has been kept to single digits under par due to firmer conditions and stronger winds. Like an Open Championship week, it’s best to monitor weather conditions in Maui throughout the week before placing any bets on the Sentry odds.

As of Monday, the forecast calls for clear skies and moderate wind ranging from 10-15 mph throughout tournament week. If that forecast holds, we should expect a winning score in the mid-to-high 20s under par.

How It Breaks Down

Though listed at 7,596 yards, the total yardage of the Plantation Course at Kapalua is a bit deceptive. For one, it’s the only par-73 course on TOUR, with just three par 3s to go along with 11 par 4s and four par 5s. The course also features several dramatic elevation changes, causing the ball to carry farther and roll out more here than the TOUR average. For example, the signature 18th hole is listed at 677 yards but is still easily reachable in two for players with plus distance, given the downhill tee shot and downhill approach from the fairway to the green.

At a glance, the Plantation Course at Kapalua sets up to be one of the easiest tracks on TOUR. A 20-under-par winning score is the de facto barometer to classify a given tournament as a “birdie-fest,” and the winner of the Tournament of Champions has exceeded that mark in eight of the last nine years. A quarter of the field shot -20 or better in each of the last two years.

The course itself is long, with dramatic elevation changes and severe undulations in both the fairways and greens complexes. These are some of the easiest combinations of fairways and greens to hit on TOUR. The course favors the best iron players, birdie-makers, and hot putters on slow Bermuda greens. Distance, as always, will only help players this week, as they can swing freely at these open fairways with little resistance from the sparse hazards on the property.

Course History & Course Comps

From a Course History standpoint, this event has proven to be one of the most predictive, given the unique intricacies of the course and the nuances that come with the first event after a long layoff in a very different time zone.

Over the last five years, a clear tier of five players has consistently played this course well. Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, and Sungjae Im each have posted multiple top-five finishes. Additionally, none finished worse than T16 over that span.

The top 10 in the field in terms of Course History at this event are Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, Brian Harman, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, J.T. Poston, and Tom Hoge. Notables who have failed to crack the top 10 over multiple Sentry appearances include Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, and Billy Horschel.

Course Comps

In terms of course comps, Augusta National surprisingly draws the strongest trends. Of course, the stakes and course difficulty of Kapalua pale in comparison to Augusta. But the crossover is clear. With the exception of Chris Kirk and Harris English, each of the last 12 winners of this event were either Masters champions or had registered a top-five at the Masters. Rahm only furthered this trend by winning both events in 2023.

They are comparable in the sense that each favors longer hitters who can take advantage of par 5s, has wider fairways that forgive slight misses off the tee, and features a massive property with distinct undulations and many sloping or uneven fairway lies that reward clever shot shaping.

Beyond Augusta, The Los Angeles Country Club is a recent example of a large property with generous landing areas and easier scoring when conditions are not firm. Congaree, host of the 2021 Palmetto Championship and 2022 CJ Cup, also comps well. Both courses are long with massive, open fairways, reachable par 4s, and large tabletop Bermuda greens complexes. They’re also both plantation courses, for what it’s worth.

On a secondary level, Corales, Coco Beach, Albany, El Cardonal at Diamante, and Vidanta Vallarta are easier, coastal open courses similar to Kapalua. TPC Craig Ranch and Caves Valley also share the same advantage to bombers, though with less influence from coastal winds.

Looking at SG: TOT L36 rounds across each of the noted comp courses, the top 10 players in this field are Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele, Akshay Bhatia, Jake Knapp, Robert MacIntyre, Stephan Jaeger, Austin Eckroat, Tony Finau, and Matt Fitzpatrick.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER

  • SG: APP
  • Driving Distance
  • Par-5 Scoring
  • Prox: 200+
  • Prox: <100 Yards / SG: ARG
  • Birdies or Better Gained
  • 3-Putt Avoidance
  • SG: P (Bermuda)
  • Course & Comp Course History

Bespoke to Kapalua, the course emphasizes Around The Green and Scrambling despite recently playing as a birdie fest. Four par 4s sit under 400 yards and set up < 30-yard wedges for up-and-down birdies. Each of the four par 5s will also leave players in a similar situation if they aren’t already putting for eagle. The top 10 wedge players (weighting SG: ARG and Prox: <100) are Harry Hall, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, JT Poston, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Patton Kizzire, Alex Noren, and Eric Cole.

Referencing historical trends at Kapalua, the ideal player should not be a debutant and rank above-average in Driving Distance, SG: Short Game, Birdies or Better Gained, and Comp Course History. There are just five players who satisfy these criteria: Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Cameron Young, Sungjae Im, and Wyndham Clark.

Correlation

Looking at the correlation charts this week, we see a fairly notable decrease in the importance of P5: 550-600 and SG: APP. That checks out, given the unique hole layouts at Kapalua and the higher GIR percentage expected from the field.

On the other hand, P5: 500-550 and SG: Short Game make the most notable jumps in importance at the Sentry. Each vaults into the top 10 this week. The importance of Birdies (or Better) Gained is also worth noting.

Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT at The Sentry

Taking each of the above key categories into account, there are just five players who rate out above average in all 10 top categories: Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Eric Cole, Jhonattan Vegas, and Taylor Pendrith.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Sungjae Im

2024 marked the sixth consecutive season since joining the PGA TOUR in which Sungjae Im averaged positive strokes gained across all four major categories. That level of consistency should solidify Im among the elites on the PGA TOUR. However, his talents continue to go overlooked due to how infrequently he has managed to convert his play into wins. Sungjae has won just once since 2020, with his last win coming in October 2021 at the Shriners Children’s Open. That makes him, in my opinion, one of the most overdue candidates for a breakout 2025 season.

And where better to launch his 2025 breakout campaign than Kapalua? Hee has done everything but win there in his career. Sungjae joins the elite company of Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and Patrick Cantlay as the only players to post multiple top-five finishes here over the last five years. And yet, his odds can be found at nearly double that of the former four.

Last year, Im set the PGA TOUR record for birdies in a 72-hole tournament, amassing 34 en route to a T5 finish that was derailed by a few too many offsetting bogeys. Assuming he cleans the card up this time around in 2025, there’s no question his combination of course fit, course history, and recent form set him up well to contend in the first of event of 2025.

2025 The SENTRY: DFS Player pool

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2025 the Sentry odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog.

UnderDog Golf Draft Rankings Tiers

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Underdog drafts for the Sentry were not live yet at the time of writing.

Tier 1

Collin Morikawa
Justin Thomas
Xander Schauffele

Tier 2

Sungjae Im
Adam Scott

Tier 3

Taylor Pendrith
Cameron Young
Max Greyserman
Wyndham Clark
JT Poston

Tier 4

Austin Eckroat
Max Homa
Will Zalatoris
Jhonattan Vegas

Tier 5

Stephan Jaeger
Sepp Straka
Harry Hall

Model RESULTS & Breakdown

For my model this week, I’m prioritizing Birdies or Better Gained, Course & Comp Course History, and Prox 200+, followed by a more balanced mix of Driving Distance, SG: APP, SG: ARG, and SG: P (L36, Bermuda 3-Putt Avoidance).

Model Favorites

By virtue of a successful Fall Swing in birdie-fest conditions, Harry Hall climbs his way to the No. 1 spot in my model this week. I’m not convinced Hall can outduel a field of this caliber. However, he rates out very well for Kapalua, ranking top three in Birdies or Better Gained, SG: ARG, Prox: 200+, and SG: Putting. He will be a fixture on my placement betting card and DFS player pool this week.

After Hall, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Taylor Pendrith, Eric Cole, Max Greyserman, Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa, and Sungjae Im.

I want to build a tight card concentrated on players with proven experience at Kapalua. The odds will determine where I land. But, I can confidently say two of Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, and Sungjae Im will land on my outright card.

Thanks for reading, and good luck navigating 2025 the Sentry odds!

2025 The SENTRY ODDS Comparison Table

Use the dropdown menu in the top left to change topics and get the best odds for various markets, such as top-10 finish, etc.

Photo by AP/Gerald Herbert

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