The Recency Report: NFL Week 15 Market Moves And Week 16 Lookahead Lines

Written By FairwayJay on December 18, 2020
Drew Brees Saints Chiefs

Each week, The Lines gives you a glance at movement in betting markets in the NFL. Both sportsbooks and bettors now have a good idea of which teams are true contenders to win this year’s Super Bowl, and which teams will be going on vacation in January as there are just three weekends left in the regular season. Here is a look at market movement ahead of Week 15 and an early betting preview of Week 16.

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NFL Week 15 market movement

GameOpening SpreadCurrent Spread
LA Chargers at Las VegasRaiders -3.5Raiders -3.5
Buffalo at DenverBills -5.5Bills
Carolina at Green BayPackers -8.5Packers
Chicago at MinnesotaVikings -6Vikings
Detroit at TennesseeTitans -8.5Titans
Houston at IndianapolisColts -6Colts
Jacksonville at BaltimoreRavens -11.5Ravens
New England at MiamiDolphins -2.5Dolphins
San Francisco at Dallas49ers -349ers
Tampa Bay at AtlantaBuccaneers -2.5Buccaneers
Seattle at WashingtonSeahawks -3.5Seahawks
New York Jets at LA RamsRams -13.5Rams
Philadelphia at ArizonaCardinals -6.5Cardinals
Kansas City at New OrleansChiefs -3Chiefs
Cleveland at New York GiantsBrowns -3.5Browns
Pittsburgh at CincinnatiSteelers -11.5Steelers

The biggest Week 15 market moves and adjustments from last week’s lookahead lines include:

  • Chicago at Minnesota: Vikings from -6 to () vs. Bears
  • Detroit at Tennessee: Titans from -8.5 to () vs. Lions
  • Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Buccaneers from -2.5 to () at Falcons
  • Seattle at Washington: Seahawks from -3.5 to () vs. WFT
  • NY Jets at LA Rams: Rams from -13.5 to () vs Jets
  • Cleveland at NY Giants: Browns from -3.5 to () at Giants
  • Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Steelers from -11.5 to () at Bengals

The big interconference showdown between Kansas City and New Orleans saw the Chiefs favored by as much as 4.5 points at DraftKings Sportsbook on Monday. But with Saints QB Drew Brees returning to practice this week and then ESPN’s Adam Schefter reporting on Friday morning that Brees would indeed play against KC, the Chiefs are now .

The Packers were -8.5 vs. the Panthers on Monday and are down to -7.5, with a 6-point teaser on Green Bay a popular play. The Titans opened -9.5 and have continued to take money over the Lions. The odds on the Dolphins opened -2.5, but sharp money has moved Miami down to -1 over the Patriots. The Browns are still taking money over the Giants with bettors not worried about a letdown for Cleveland off their Monday night shootout loss to the Ravens. FanDuel Sportsbook opened the Browns -4.5 this week, but the line is up to -6.5 on the road against New York. It’s been one-way action on the Buccaneers over the Falcons, with Tampa Bay now up to -5.5 after a lookahead line of -2.5 a week ago.

A few over/under moves to note include the Colts and Texans down to from the opener of 52.5. Two other games have dropped one point – Bucs/Falcons down to 49.5 and Jets/Rams down to 43.5. There are two considerably low totals this week with the Patriots/Dolphins at 41.5 and the Steelers/Bengals at 40.5. There is a small chance of rain in the forecast in Cincinnati for that Monday nighter.

The Bears (6-7) and Vikings (6-7) have a playoff elimination game in Minneapolis. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Vikings -3 (-113) while FanDuel Sportsbook is dealing Vikings -3.5 (-102). Minnesota won at Chicago 19-13 in Week 10, and the Vikings were a 3-point favorite. Minnesota dominated that NFC North game with a 385-149 yard advantage and held the Bears to just 10 first downs with Nick Foles at quarterback. Bears running back David Montgomery did not play in that game, but he will return for this meeting. Minnesota is laying the same price for this one, with the market reacting to the Vikings 26-12 loss last week at Tampa Bay and the Bears trouncing of the Texans, 36-7. Minnesota had a 39-21 minute time of possession edge over Tampa Bay and 27-17 first down edge while out-gaining the Bucs 335-303. But three missed field goals and an extra point along with less offensive efficiency proved costly in defeat.

The most popular teams and Week 15 spread bets as of Friday at FanDuel Sportsbook were:

  • Bills 85% of bets and 82% of money (handle) over Broncos
  • Dolphins 86% of bets and 84% of money over Patriots
  • Colts 82% of bets and 79% of money over Texans
  • Buccaneers 82% of bets and 79% of money over Falcons
  • Chiefs 92% of bets and 95% of money over Saints
  • 49ers 75% of bets and 83% of money over Cowboys
  • Browns 82% of bets and 78% of money over Giants
  • Steelers 79% of bets and 90% of money over Bengals

NFL Week 16 lines

NFL Week 16 lookahead odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

GameLookahead lineCurrent spreadMoneyline
Minnesota at New OrleansSaints -6.5Saints -6.5Saints -306, Vikings +262
Tampa Bay at DetroitBuccaneers -9.5Buccaneers -12Buccaneers -586, Lions +452
San Francisco at ArizonaCardinals -2.5Cardinals -6Cardinals -260, 49ers +215
Miami at Las VegasRaiders -1.5Dolphins -2Dolphins -123, Raiders +111
Atlanta at Kansas CityChiefs -10.5Chiefs -10.5Chiefs -550, Falcons +410
Chicago at JacksonvilleBears -5Bears -7.5Bears -430, Jaguars +340
Cincinnati at HoustonTexans -8.5Texans -7.5Texans -360, Bengals +290
Cleveland at New York JetsBrowns -11Browns -6.5Browns -300, Jets +245
Indianapolis at PittsburghSteelers -2Steelers -1.5Steelers -120, Colts +102
New York Giants at BaltimoreRavens -9.5Ravens -9.5Ravens -460, Giants +360
Carolina at WashingtonWashington -2Washington -1Washington -110, Panthers -106
Denver at LA ChargersChargers -2.5Chargers -3Chargers -154, Broncos +130
LA Rams at SeattleSeahawks -1Seahawks -1Seahawks -122, Rams +104
Philadelphia at DallasEagles -1Eagles -3Eagles -164, Cowboys +138
Tennessee at Green BayPackers -4Packers -3Packers -164, Titans +138
Buffalo at New EnglandBills -4.5Bills -7Bills -320, Patriots +260

Week 16 betting breakdown

Week 16 features a Christmas Day game between the Vikings (6-7) and Saints (10-3) in New Orleans, and a rematch of last year’s playoff game that saw Minnesota upset New Orleans.

The Rams (9-4) and Seahawks (9-4) have a first place NFC West showdown in Seattle. The Rams won the first meeting 23-16 as a 3-point favorite in Week 10. The biggest difference between these two teams is on defense. The Rams allow a league-low 285 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play along with just 18.9 points per game. The Seahawks allow 390 yards per game but improved to 5.7 yards per play allowed after facing the Jets and Giants the past two weeks. Seattle’s defense is now allowing 24.9 points per game.

A potential playoff preview in the AFC is also on tap in Week 16 between the Colts (9-4) and Steelers (11-2) in Pittsburgh with both teams making a push towards the Super Bowl. The Steelers have lost two straight games going into Week 15 and Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl odds have dropped to +1300 at FanDuel. That’s now tied with the Bills, who shut down the Steelers 26-15 in Week 14. The Colts are still being disrespected as an AFC longshot and are +2400 to win the Super Bowl.

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FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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