2024 PGA TOUR Golf Bets: THE PLAYERS Championship Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
players championship bets

The 2024 PGA TOUR golf season continues, with TPC Sawgrass next on tap to host THE PLAYERS Championship in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, beginning Thursday. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy headline among Arnold Palmer Invitational bets this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite PLAYERS Championship bets among all the golf odds offered this week. Below, you’ll find the best odds across betting sites for each player.

The best the PGA TOUR has to offer are all out in Ponte Vedra Beach this week for the PGA TOUR’s flagship event. My very favorite event of the year, THE PLAYERS Championship, is next on tap at TPC Sawgrass.

PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Click on any of THE PLAYERS odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations. Here are DraftKings DFS pricing and odds at two other sportsbooks.

HOW I BUILT MY PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING CARD

The most theatrical stage for the TOUR’s best players, THE PLAYERS Championship is peak entertainment for golf fans. It features the most dramatic and recognizable closing stretch in the world of golf and has proven to be a star-maker or right of passage for the sport’s best players to prevail here over its 50-year history. While the favorites have stolen the show since this event moved to its new March slot in 2019, TPC Sawgrass’ diverse layout always brings a surprise contender into the mix. From a betting perspective, that sets the stage for a very appetizing slate starting Thursday.

At last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, Bay Hill’s sheer length, penal rough, and demand for premium skillsets in the difficult scoring areas of long-iron proximity and Scrambling for Bogey Avoidance all set the tone for a favorite like Scottie Scheffler to display a clear advantage over the average player in the field. This week, not so much. Pete Dye’s crown jewel, TPC Sawgrass, has always leveled the playing field in a fair way, and allowed players with very diverse playing styles to prevail over the years.

For my betting card, I looked to have equitable exposure to elites in great ball-striking form and longshots with great course and comp course history in order to round out my outright betting card.

It’s back to business as usual for my weekly stake at THE PLAYERS, with some bonus prop bets to take advantage of the full suite of betting markets available for an event of this stature.

  • Outrights – 3.5U in to pay 25U each
  • FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
  • Full Tournament Matchups – 1U in to pay out 2U
  • Props – 2U in to pay out 3U+ each

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)

Justin Thomas

My Bet: +2400
Best Available Odds:

This is not a week you have to chase course history, with recent winners like Scottie Scheffler, Cam Smith, and Rory McIlroy prevailing without any prior notable indications. But in the face of volatility at TPC Sawgrass, Thomas has proven to be a rare exception to the rule. The 2021 PLAYERS Champion is the only player in the field to have never missed the cut at this event with a minimum of five prior starts. When you envision the perfect course for JT, it looks a lot like TPC Sawgrass. The Florida resident is at his best when he can flex his creative shot shit making off the tee, and he’s as creative as they come around the greens. In significantly improved form since this time last year, I expect to see a vintage JT performance once again this week.

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Viktor Hovland

My Bet: +2500
Best Available Odds:

I was prepared to bet Viktor Hovland below 20-1 odds this week before futures markets readjusted on Monday. Somewhat surprisingly, Hovland’s odds have drifted in the other direction since then, now making him one of my favorite value bets on the board by week’s end. The 2023 TOUR Champion hasn’t exactly backed those accolades up to start 2024, but he’s shown improved signs that he is not far from the ball-striking form that’s gotten him to the No. 4 ranked golfer in the world.

A top-10 finisher in each of the last two PLAYERS Championships, I’m less concerned about his around-the-green woes as others may be, and expect this event to command his full attention.

Sam Burns

My Bet: +3700
Best Available Odds:

Bermuda Burns was on a clear trajectory for five consecutive top-10 finishes leading up to THE PLAYERS before torpedoing his hopes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a Sunday 78. I’ll view it as a blessing in disguise from a betting value standpoint, as one poor round in very difficult and demanding windy conditions at a driver-heavy course like Bay Hill does not change how I’ve already felt about Burns’ prospects here.

Form is important leading up to THE PLAYERS, especially since moving into this earlier March slot on the schedule, so the four top-10s over his last five starts put him in rare company from a leading form standpoint. Burns has been most dominant at the Valspar Championship, which shares the exact same style of Dormant Overseeded Bermuda greens, which we’ll see this week at TPC Sawgrass. Now battle-tested with some Presidents Cup and Ryder Cup reps under his belt, Burns is more poised now than ever before to contend on this stage.

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +10000
Best Available Odds:

With his great Bermuda putting splits and steady ball-striking prowess, I’m always going to look Keegan’s way in Ponte Vedra Beach, especially in a buy-low opportunity such as this. Keegan was good, not great, at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, but showed the ball-striking flashes I needed to see to buy in yet again. He’s been sharpest on positional courses lately, with a T11 and T2 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Sony Open to start this season. He also picked up his most recent win at Pete Dye’s TPC River Highlands as further evidence that his game suits this style of venue.

Matthieu Pavon

My Bet: +15000
Best Available Odds:

Generally speaking, THE PLAYERS is an event you’ll gladly trade away course history in favor of recent form. While I’d ideally love to see some reps under Pavon’s belt at TPC Sawgrass before this week, inexperience did not impede him from winning at Torrey Pines, so I’m happy to ride the hot hand at severely discounted odds. Pavon has stockpiled eight top-15s over his last 13 starts, including two wins over that span across the PGA and DP World Tours.

Erik van Rooyen

My Bet: +20000
Best Available Odds:

Erik van Rooyen continues to look the part of the most improved PGA TOUR player in 2024. A winner at the Worldwide Technology Championship in November, he hasn’t looked back since, with just one missed cut and five top-25s. He has not lost strokes to the field ball-striking throughout this hot streak and has demonstrated sustained improvements to his putting lately as well. A top-15 finisher in his only prior appearance at THE PLAYERS, this is a great course fit for the South African if he can maintain this level of streaky ball striking.

Nick Taylor

My Bet: +20000
Best Available Odds:

“Can this guy handle the Sunday pressure on the back nine at TPC Sawgrass to beat one of the best fields of the year?” is a question I need to ask myself before seriously considering longshots this far down the board. In the case of Nick Taylor, the answer is an emphatic yes. He won over fans across the world with his climactic walk-off playoff victory over Tommy Fleetwood in front of a raucous home crowd at the 2023 RBC Canadian Open. He then channeled those nerves yet again at the most pressure-packed event of the 2024 season to date, winning the 2024 WM Phoenix Open as well. Looking sharp with a T12 showing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, Taylor is a popular longshot bet across the industry with good reason.

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

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Tom Hoge

My Bet: +6600
Best Available Odds:

First Round Leader at this event in 2022 and now the course record holder after a fiery Moving Day performance last year, it’s no secret that Tom Hoge can go low at TPC Sawgrass. I will have severe FOMO if he manages to win THE PLAYERS outright, but I think this is the right market to get exposure to Hoge in this week.

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

Along with Hoge, Keegan Bradley is always going to be a fixture on my FRL card at THE PLAYERS. Whether he can keep the nerves in check over four days is a different story, but he will play aggressively to start hot at TPC Sawgrass on Thursday.

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

Okay I’ll be honest, Aaron Rai was Sharpied onto my FRL card alongside Bradley and Hoge long before FRL odds or tee times were released. A positional venue that rewards top-tier ball striking and staying away from trouble is ideal for Rai, and he’s put together a great early track record on Pete Dye courses to start his career.

Alex Noren

My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:

After actually consulting the tee sheet, Noren draws a favorable early morning start, as he’ll be able to capitalize while the early morning dew is still wet and before the swirling winds begin to pick up. Still one of the streakiest putters on TOUR, this is a venue Noren can go very low at.

Austin Eckroat

My Bet: +11000
Best Available Odds:

The Cognizant Classic Champion rates out tremendously well in my model this week, as he remains in great ball striking form with proven results on windy and positional comp courses. I couldn’t quite get there for an outright bet, but I don’t doubt that he is capable of going low any given round at TPC Sawgrass.

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: Hole-in-one props (0.5 UNITS)

THE PLAYERS Championship is more special than your typical weekly PGA TOUR event, so I had to dig deeper down the prop sheet for this one. In 2023, there were three hole-in-ones, each coming on the signature 17th hole. As an entertainment bet, I can’t help but take a few swings on these approach marksmen.

I bet these prices at DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Erik van Rooyen +9000
  • Corey Conners +9000
  • Doug Ghim +10000
  • Davis Thompson +10000
  • Ryo Hisatune +10000

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)

Full Tournament Matchup: Justin Thomas > Collin Morikawa

My Bet: -120

Sam Burns over Collin Morikawa was a very sweat-free prop for us last week, so free of a disastrous showing at Bay Hill, I’m not going to stop picking on Morikawa a week later. In theory, TPC Sawgrass’ point-and-shoot layout is an ideal fit for the strengths of Morikawa’s game as he’s known to be one of the most accurate ball strikers in the sport. That hasn’t been the Morikawa we’ve seen lately, however, as he’s looked like just another guy with his irons over his last four starts.

His short game is not nearly polished enough to overcome less-than-perfect ball striking, and I’m far more comfortable going to a creative shot-maker in Thomas, who can score in a myriad of different ways at TPC Sawgrass.

Top-20 Finish: Erik van Rooyen

My Bet: +400
Best Available Odds:

History has shown that no elite star is “safe” to finish in the top 20 any given year at THE PLAYERS, so I think it’s a smart play to spread exposure in the top-20 market further down the board. In EVR’s case, he is 1-for-1 in terms of top-20 finishes in this event and enters in far better form this year than he did for his last appearance in 2021.

Top-20 Finish: Matthieu Pavon

My Bet: +450
Best Available Odds:

I don’t know exactly how Pavon’s game will translate to TPC Sawgrass, but with a limited sample size, I’m still drawing encouragement from his T7 at the Sony Open, which has historically correlated well with crossover success at THE PLAYERS.

Top-20 Finish: Christiaan Bezuidenhout

My Bet: +450
Best Available Odds:

Bezuidenhout falls squarely in the camp of “fits the course perfectly but could not see him winning THE PLAYERS outright”. He has the perfect game for a positional course like this and put that on display here last year with a career-best T13 finish.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Viktor Hovland

As another Signature Event, this is definitely a week you want to use an elite talent in OAD with one of the biggest purses of the year on the line. Hovland won’t fly completely under the radar with his great course history but he still feels contrarian enough with lingering questions about his short game and sluggish start to 2024. Scheffler will be the consensus and prudent play as he chases a repeat, but I’m still comfortable saving him for later into Major season.

If not Hovland, I would also consider playing Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, or Si Woo Kim in OAD.

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own PLAYERS Championship bets, and see you next Sunday for the Valspar Championship preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

Compare odds before making your PLAYERS Championship bets this week by using the table below. Click the odds to bet now.

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