2024 PGA TOUR Golf Bets: The American Express Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
american express bets

PGA TOUR golf continues with PGA West’s three-course rotation next on tap to host the 2024 American Express in Palm Springs this Thursday. Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, and Xander Schauffele headline as the favorites among The American Express bets this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite PGA TOUR picks among all the golf odds offered this week. Below, you’ll find each player’s best odds across sports betting sites.

Coachella lineups may have just been announced, but the party starts now in Coachella Valley, at the PGA TOUR’s best make their way to PGA West in Coachella Valley for the 2024 American Express.

As a two-time winner of this event, Jon Rahm, famously explained, this event is one of the most extreme examples of a putting contest on the PGA TOUR, removing the skillset needed from tee-to-green on a short and easy setup that ultimately boils down to who can sink the most putts. While it is common to see longshot winners in this event, the favorite players have performed well, too, whether it be Rahm’s two aforementioned wins or Patrick Cantlay’s runner-up finish in 2021.

In short, there is a lot of randomness in store at PGA West between the easy conditions and persistent water hazards on the Stadium Course, so with less conviction, it lends itself to a more expansive outright card and DFS player pool.

Ahead, we’ll go through all the bets I’ve placed for the 2024 American Express.

Click on any of the American Express odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.

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Hard to feel too confident about your bets when you have three single-digit odds favorites in an event that has produced three winners at over 200-1 odds over the last five years. While two courses in the three-course rotation (La Quinta CC, Nicklaus Tournament Course) offer no resistance or penalty for misfires off-the-tee, the Stadium Course is one to reward accurate driving. Considering half the rounds this week will be played at the Stadium Course, I’ve found myself gravitating to players who are elite on approach, have spike putting upside as demonstrated in comparable birdie fests, and are capable of dialing back driver on positional courses to avoid trouble.

In terms of unit allocations for my card, I’ve opted for a card of outrights only for three reasons: (1) This is an extremely volatile event which gives me less conviction in placement and matchup props, (2) I see very little value in the FRL market when divided across three courses (so Aaron Rai will without a doubt be the first round leader), and (3) I’m on vacation in Florida, don’t have accounts set up here, and don’t feel like bothering people to put in prop bets for me.

As a reminder, I’m always happy to answer any questions on bets you are considering, whether it be in TheLines free Discord channel or DMs on X (@pgatout).

With all of that in mind, this is how my units are staked out for the 2024 American Express:

  • Outrights – 3.5U in to pay 25U each

The American Express Bets: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)

For PGA TOUR DFS picks and longshot bet considerations, check out my golf sleepers for the American Express.

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Tom Kim

My Bet: +3000
Best Available Odds:
Underdog Round 1 Higher or Lower Pick Em: 67.5 Strokes, 5.5 Birdies or Better
PrizePicks Round 1 Higher or Lower Pick Em: 67.5 Strokes, 6.0 Birdies or Better, H2H vs. Min Woo Lee

Over Tom Kim’s last three starts on short desert-style courses, he has finished 1st, 4th, and 1st between the Shriners Open and The AmEx. The Shriners-to-AmEx pipeline has been a highly correlated one for other players like Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay, and Adam Hadwin, so the early cross-over success leads me to believe this is going to be an event where Kim finds himself in contention often.

At his best, Tom Kim lives in the fairways and has shown to be capable of leading a field in both approach and putting. Closing 2023 strong with six consecutive top-25 finishes, I have no concerns about Kim’s form now that he has shaken off the rust at The Sentry.

Eric Cole

My Bet: +3500
Best Available Odds:

This hot streak from the 35-year-old rookie of the year feels like it has to come to an end soon, but a second-shot, birdie fest layout is not where I would bank on that happening. Cole comes to Palm Springs in the midst of a streak of 17 consecutive cuts made. While still chasing his first career win, he has found himself in contention often with five top-6 finishes.

Cole should feel unphased playing in a pro-am alongside non-professionals, given his prevalence across mini-tours, and is well apt to win a putting contest.

JT Poston

My Bet: +4000
Best Available Odds:

At the Sony Open last week, I backed Poston at 40-1 odds due to his hot recent form and fit for a short course that rewards keeping the ball in play and a hot putter on Bermuda greens. A T6 finish later, Poston is still available at exactly the same price. With no signs of slowing down, I see no reason to hop off the Poston train now, as PGA West should continue to reward his strengths of iron play and putting.

Tony Finau

My Bet: +4500
Best Available Odds:

Before the odds were released on Monday, I’d jotted down Finau’s name on a short list, assuming odds around 25-1. With odds nearly double that, Finau became a no-brainer value bet for me in this field, regardless of immediate form.

Like Rahm, Finau practices in desert conditions in Arizona, which should prepare him well for conditions at PGA West. The results back that claim up as well, as he’s finished top-16 in three of the last four years. Putting is always a concern for Finau, but he has managed to boost his putting upside when playing in easier events like the AmEx, the Mexico Open, and the 3M Open most recently. A neutral-or-better putter in five of his six career AmEx appearances, this is a steal of a price for Finau if be continues to putt field-average in this event.

Adam Hadwin

My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:

As the rule goes, if you’ve shot 59 on a course before, I’m always going to want to bet that player every single time they return to that course in perpetuity. So is the case with Adam Hadwin who reached the sacred sub-sixty society here at this event in 2017. Hadwin is a proven winner on the PGA TOUR who thrives in birdie fests given his combined approach and putting skill.

Twice a runner-up in 2023, Hadwin should feel motivated in a Canadian Presidents Cup year to break through for a win on a course he ranks top five in course history.

Adam Schenk

My Bet: +11000
Best Available Odds:

My featured spotlight player of the week, I have very high hopes for Adam Schenk, who continues an upward trajectory by steadily improving his driving distance, approach play, and putting year-over-year.

Schenk’s best results have come in birdie fests like the John Deere Classic and Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he can lean on his approach and putting skill to separate from the pack. We get to capitalize on a buy-low spot here after Schenk nearly finished in last place at The AmEx in 2023. That can happen at a course with so many water hazards looming, but he proved with his T14 finish in 2020 that this is a venue where he can play well.

Sam Ryder

My Bet: +20000
Best Available Odds:

Anyone running a model this week weighting the importance of the consensus talking point stats of SG: Approach, Birdies or Better Gained, Good Drives Gained, and SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions) will find Sam Ryder’s name close to the top. That’s because Ryder – who is available in the same odds range as recent winners Hudson Swafford, Andrew Landry, and Adam Long – ranks top-20 in all four key categories.

Ideally, I would like to have seen Ryder shake off the rust in the Hawaii Swing, but it’s hard to pass on his statistical fit at odds this long.

Lee Hodges

My Bet: +22000
Best Available Odds:

Lee Hodges burst onto the scene his rookie year with a T3 finish at The AmEx, later going on to win decisively at the 3M Open to establish himself as a reputable up-and-coming player on TOUR. The AmEx and 3M Open have proven to be correlated events, given the importance of scoring in easy conditions while avoiding water hazards off-the-tee, so I expect Hodges to play well in this event for years to come. A consistent ball striker, Hodges also showed encouraging signs with the putter to close 2023, gaining on the greens in four of his last five starts.

First Round Leader

Our favorite first-round leader bet, Aaron Rai is available at 55-1 on DraftKings to be the FRL on La Quinta tomorrow. With the three-course rotation, the typical FRL bets are not available, but I did bet this.

Editor’s Note

One And Done

My Pick: Tom Kim

Assessing the chalk plays in OAD for The AmEx, I expect a very balanced distribution of picks. The favorites (Scheffler, Cantlay, Schauffele) all have proven results at this event but would more sensibly be saved for a higher purse event later in the season, whether a Signature Event or Major. This is also a highly volatile putting contest, which will give OAD players pause to “waste” an elite player at an event where they can easily be caught by the “Adam Long’s” of the world if they simply catch a hot putter.

So, conventional wisdom would suggest this is a week where OAD players trickle down to the second tier and choose amongst those who have started 2024 in good form and have consistent results at The American Express. By that logic, Sungjae Im is prime target No. 1, alongside players like Tom Kim, Sam Burns, JT Poston, and Eric Cole.

I’ve decided to go with Tom Kim because I expect him to be a less-owned pivot from Sungjae with the same upside and signals from comp performance on desert courses. Kim is a bit more methodical with his tournament schedule than Im too, so I’m opting to save Sungjae for an event he will be favored in.

Best of luck with all of your American Express bets!

The American Express: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own American Express bets, and see you next Sunday for the Farmers Insurance Open preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

The American Express ODDS

Compare odds before making your American Express bets this week by using the table below. Click the odds to bet now.