US Open Quarterfinal Predictions, Odds 2026: Defending Champions to Reach the Last Four in New York

We have reached the quarterfinal stage of the 2026 US Open, with the action in New York City heating up. Who will progress to the last four of this Grand Slam event?

In the men’s tournament today, Frances Tiafoe takes on Alex Michelsen and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz goes up against Ben Shelton. Aryna Sabalenka squares off Linda Noskova in today’s standout women’s quarterfinal.

Check out this in-depth betting preview for the US Open quarterfinal predictions, picks, and parlays.

US Open Quarterfinal Predictions

Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova

Sabalenka’s championship defense has been solid so far, picking up four wins out of four without dropping a single set. Before the 2-0 fourth-round win against Taylor Townsend, the defending champion saw off Camila Osorio, Polina Iatcenko, and Kamilla Rakhimova.

Having lifted the trophy in 2024 and 2025, Sabalenka’s three-peat chances are well and truly alive. She was the tournament favorite before a ball was hit in New York, and she is still fancied to make it three in a row at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

Linda Noskova, who won at Wimbledon a couple of months back, is a worthy quarterfinalist. The 21-year-old Czech has beaten Katie Volynets, Lanlana Tararudee, Ann Li, and Marta Kostyuk to reach the last eight.

Although the Wimbledon champion will be no pushover, Sabalenka is the -250 favorite with BetMGM for a reason. We like the 2-1 Sabalenka win at tennis odds of +300.

Our Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to Win 2-1 – +300, BetMGM

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen

The men’s quarterfinals get underway when Tiafoe and Michelsen lock horns today. This all-American clash in Queens promises to be entertaining.

Tiafoe has reached the US Open semi-final twice but has never played in a major final. Could this be the 28-year-old’s time to shine on the grandest stage? In the previous round, Tiafoe stunned Daniil Medvedev.

This is the furthest that Michelsen has gone in any Grand Slam tournament. The 22-year-old Californian has been excellent in New York, seeing off Federico Cina, Brandon Nakashima, Daniel Merida, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry.

Michelsen has done well to get this far, but getting the better of compatriot Tiafoe will be a tall order for the 22-year-old. Our money is going on Tiafoe to win in straight sets (+270).

Our Prediction: Frances Tiafoe to Win 3-0 – +270, BetMGM

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Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz is back in US Open action today, taking on Shelton in a quarterfinal at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Can Shelton repeat his 2023 heroics and reach another US Open semi, or will the reigning champion be too hot to handle?

Shelton was excellent against Stefanos Tsitsipas in round four, beating the experienced Greek in straight sets to reach the last eight. The 23-year-old previously got the better of Tallon Griekspoor, Hubert Hurkacz, and Denis Shapovalov.

Alcaraz only returned from injury on the eve of the tournament, but the seven-time Grand Slam winner has dropped just one set in Queens so far. He kicked off the defense of his US Open crown by seeing off Roman Safiullin (6-4, 6-4, 6-4).

Alcaraz made light work of American Tommy Paul in round four, winning 6-4, 6-3, 6-4. He is seemingly growing in confidence and is the man to beat in New York.

As expected, the world No. 3 is the red-hot favorite to win this quarterfinal and secure his spot in the last four.

Shelton could have a say, but Alcaraz’s qualities should get him over the line. Check out BetMGM’s top tennis odds of +260 for the champion to win by three sets to one.

Our Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to Win 3-1 – +260, BetMGM

Odds taken from BetMGM at 08:00 ET time, on 8 September 2026.