Can Titans Reclaim AFC South Throne, Return To Playoffs?
Following multiple seasons either winning the AFC South or making the playoffs as a Wild Card team, the Titans experienced a down 2022. They ceded the division to the Jaguars in a dramatic final game and finished 7-10. That opens the door for an easy narrative in Titans odds. Tennessee is a team with the arrow pointing down, and Titans betting should follow accordingly.
Still, many of the same players remain from the teams that collected 32 wins over the prior three seasons, particularly offensive lynchpins Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. Are bettors right to fade the Titans for 2023?
2022 Titans Key Advanced Stats & RankINGS
|Stat||Titans Value (League Rank)|
|Offense DVOA||-5.8% (21)|
|Defense DVOA||+1.8% (19)|
|Special Teams DVOA||-1.5% (24)|
|Rush Offense EPA/Play||-0.104 (26)|
|Rush Defense EPA/Play||-0.199 (1)|
|Pass Offense EPA/Play||-0.034 (23)|
|Pass Defense EPA/Play||+0.114 (28)|
Notable Titans Offseason Moves
We’ll start with changes the Titans roster has undergone heading to the 2023 season. Keep in mind that minor moves will still occur. Useful veterans will become available following releases from other teams, and key injuries will crop up both to the Titans and their opponents. But, here’s where things stand as of early August.
- Key additions: WR DeAndre Hopkins, LT Andre Dillard, OL Peter Skoronski, T Chris Hubbard, QB Will Levis, RB Tyjae Spears, EDGE Arden Key, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting
- Key losses: WR Robert Woods, TE Austin Hooper, LT Taylor Lewan, G Nate Davis, C Ben Jones, QB Josh Dobbs, EDGE Bud Dupree, DT DeMarcus Walker, LB David Long Jr., LB Zach Cunningham
Can a solid group of position players keep an offense afloat if the line spends most of its time trying to undermine their efforts? That’s the central question surrounding the Titans this year, as efforts to fix a really rough 2022 unit (last in PFF pass block rating) look mixed. Sure, Peter Skoronski should help. But, Andre Dillard and Chris Hubbard look like uninspiring adds at best.
Still, Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry remain solid, steady veteran presences who will do their jobs better than the average player at their positions. And DeAndre Hopkins really helps shore up the pass catchers, though the group remains very thin. Injuries there could totally derail this offense.
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Speaking of injuries, those defensive rankings for 2022 should be taken with a heaping pile of salt.
Few if any units dealt with a more severe injury flood than the Titans secondary. They essentially ran out a practice squad group for much of the year and largely failed to contain opposing passing games despite a sound rush. But if guys like Caleb Farley, Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden can stay on the field, the Titans could run out a top-10 defense. Certainly, having a couple of rocks in newly signed CB Sean Murphy-Bunting and perennial All-Pro Kevin Byard will stabilize things.
Star performer Jeffery Simmons leads the group up front. Nobody could run the ball on Tennessee at all last year, and with Simmons and Harold Landry, opposing QBs should at least be uncomfortable a decent amount of the time.
Titans Schedule And Odds For Every Game
Early betting markets from DraftKings Sportsbook can give us a look at what to expect for the Titans’ game-to-game chances of victory. These numbers will obviously change massively. But, they’re still a useful tool.
|Week||Opponent||Titans Spread||Game Notes|
|1||@ New Orleans||+3|
|9||@ Pittsburgh||+4||Thursday Night Football|
|10||@ Tampa Bay||-1||Extra rest following TNF|
|14||@ Miami||+7.5||Monday Night Football|
|15||Houston||-3||Short rest following MNF|
Converting these spreads to moneylines, one comes up with approximately 7.3 projected market wins for the Titans.
The win total market number of has juice on the over at the majority of the shops, however. But, optimistic bettors can currently find plus money on that side also.
The Titans have among the longest Super Bowl odds at , a number that has only grown since markets opened. That number reflects not only a mediocre talent level but also a perceived (and likely real) lower ceiling due to having a more veteran-heavy roster.
Possible Offseason Bets On Titans Odds For 2023
There does not seem to be much optimism out there about the Tennessee Titans. They have one of the lower win totals in the NFL despite playing in what’s universally acknowledged to be the softest division.
However, I’m finding myself intrigued here. After initially feeling like Jacksonville was nearly a lock to win the AFC South, I’m no longer so sure. That team, while surely the most talented, does have real question marks. The offensive line looks like it could be bad, particularly early in the year with Cam Robinson out. And the secondary looks pretty weak, so opposing passing games could feast.
On paper, that would seem the case for Tennessee as well. PFF ranked this group 26th after they got torched last year. However, I’m inclined to give them a pass due to the hail of injuries they suffered. Essentially, the Titans ran out a practice squad secondary for much of the year. As long as that isn’t the case in 2023, there’s real potential in this group. They’ve used a lot of high picks on the unit and brought in a good veteran corner in Sean Murphy-Bunting.
Yes, the offensive line stinks, but Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill are used to such things and have done a fine job. As long as the thin pass catcher group doesn’t break from injury or DeAndre Hopkins finding the cliff at 31, I think they have enough to cobble together league average production.
Add in Mike Vrabel, who pushes this team to overachieve year after year, and Titans odds interest me for the AFC South at a long price. I’ll likely have a taste, along with over their standard win total.
TheLines Podcast: AFC South MEGAPOD
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