As the Bengals and Chiefs take the stage for the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, one matchup in the game that figures to have a massive impact is the Cincinnati passing offense against the Kansas City defensive backs. The multi-faceted attack features many productive players, and one such weapon is Tee Higgins. As part of TheLines’ AFC Championship preview in the NFL playoffs, we’ll take a look at Tee Higgins props.
Tee Higgins Player Props
For more props analysis this weekend, visit our NFL Player Props page.
Tee Higgins Receiving Props: Yardage
While Joe Burrow is expected to have a big day (yardage prop ~275), Higgins has not been tabbed by the market as a likely superstar in this one. He has a few things working against him.
For one, the Chiefs have been quite good against WR2s this season. According to Football Outsiders, they rank No. 10 there, holding the opposition to -11.6% DVOA, a very strong number. By stark contrast, WR1s have torched the Chiefs. They rank 31st, allowing a massive +22% DVOA. That feeds into the next thing that may drag down Higgins’ numbers.
Ja’Marr Chase has been an extremely destructive force in this matchup. Granted, we have a small sample to analyze, but here’s the contrast in their average numbers through three matchups with the Chiefs.
- Chase: 9.7 targets, 8 receptions, 139 yards
- Higgins: 6.7 targets, 4 receptions, 66.7 yards
Chase has also found the end zone four times, Higgins just once. Only in last year’s playoffs did Higgins outperform Chase.
Of course, the Chiefs should be well aware of these issues. It’s possible they shift more defensive resources to Chase, opening things up for Higgins. But, overall, the Chiefs’ struggles against Chase and strong play against WR2s explains Chase’s modest receiving total of .
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Receptions, Longest Reception
With Higgins’ total receptions prop sitting at , right around his average in a matchup that doesn’t look plus for him (see above), that number doesn’t look all that interesting unless you have a strong lean to under.
More interesting might be longest reception at . Higgins may not have big volume against the Chiefs, but the catches he does make tend toward bigger plays. He has catches of 39 and 44 yards. In two of the three games, he had the deepest average depth of target on the team, hefty numbers of 12.7 and 14.3. It’s fair to say the Bengals have made a point to get him involved deep down the field against KC.
Tee Higgins Touchdown Props
There’s a fairly wide split in the touchdown props as DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook had significantly friendlier prices on Higgins to score at the time of writing (+195 vs. the rest of the market around +160). Higgins is such a weapon in the red zone — 19 TDs in 46 regular season games — that those odds don’t look too bad.
However, continued market movement toward the under — the total opened as high as 49 — may mean we see muted scoring here, so keep that in mind.
AFC Championship Odds: Bengals At Chiefs
Bet on the AFC Championship Game by clicking on odds in the table below.