TCU vs. Oral Roberts College World Series 2023: Odds, Preview, TV Start Time
The TCU Horned Frogs (42-22) take on the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (51-12) in the opening game of the 2023 men’s College World Series in Omaha, Nebraska. TCU is a -165 favorite, which begins Friday, June 16 at 2:00 p.m. ET on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+. The Horned Frogs own the nation’s longest win streak at 11 games, taking over after Oral Roberts’ 21-game win streak came to an end in the Super Regionals. Below, we’ll compare TCU vs. Oral Roberts odds at the best sports betting sites.
College World Series: TCU vs. Oral Roberts Odds
Looking at season-long metrics for TCU doesn’t give a clear picture of the team taking the field Friday. They sit last in wOBA (.403) and have the second-worst FIP (5.30) in the field, but also hung 20 runs on Arkansas in the Regionals and held Indiana State to five combined runs in the Super Regionals. Since the start of the Big 12 Tournament, TCU is outscoring opponents 11.3-3.7, allowing no more than five runs in any game.
Their freshmen core of Kole Klecker (10-4, 3.84 ERA), Karson Bowen (3.55 BA), and Louis Rodriguez (4.53 ERA, three saves) picked the team up by the bootstraps to make this postseason run. Transfer Cole Fontenelle also notched four extra-base hits in seven at-bats in the Super Regionals, including two homers. Tre Richardson rounds out the latest hot players, making headlines with his historic Regionals performance against Arkansas (two grand slams, 11 RBI).
No team made a bigger jump this postseason in RPI than Oral Roberts. They entered the postseason 88th, but now stand 50th after toppling the Stillwater Regional and beating Oregon on its home field in the Super Regionals. The Golden Eagles are the first No. 4 tournament seed to make the College World Series in a decade. Prior to the start of the Regionals, ORU was given less than a 10% chance to make the CWS. Now, prior to the start of the CWS, they have just a 3.7% implied probability to win the title.
Like TCU, looking at season-long metrics is misleading when handicapping ORU. They have a middling wOBA (.420), but are scoring 10 runs per game since the start of their conference tournament. The difference between ORU and TCU, though, is run differential. TCU enters this game with a +36 run differential in the postseason versus just +11 for ORU.
In these kinds of tournaments, luck runs out. Oral Roberts is currently running on a lot of luck.
Projected Starting Pitchers
Starters for TCU vs. Oral Roberts likely won’t be released until a day or two beforehand. However, based on previous rotations, we can make an educated guess at who we will see on the bump Friday.
- TCU: Kole Klecker (10-4, 3.84 ERA, 6.27 FIP)
- Oral Roberts: Jakob Hall (8-3, 3.56 ERA, 4.53 FIP)
Klecker, a true freshman, hit the starting rotation for TCU in April and never looked back. He quickly became the ace for a team devoid of strong starting pitching and has been called upon in most Game 1s for the Frogs. TCU is one of two teams (Wake Forest) yet to lose in the NCAA Baseball Championship, but TCU is the lone team to also go unbeaten in their conference tournament.
Hall was the Game 1 starter in both the Regional and Super Regional. In Eugene, he turned in a shaky start, giving up five runs in five innings. However, it was reliever Dalton Patten who picked up the loss as Oregon closed an 8-0 deficit and mounted the biggest Super Regional comeback ever. In his previous start against Oklahoma State, Hall allowed no runs in 2.2 IP in opening duties.
TCU Vs. Oral Roberts Odds Analysis
At -165, TCU has an expected win rate of 62.3% at DraftKings Sportsbook. Oral Roberts (+150) has a 40% expected win rate at Caesars Sportsbook, their best number available at the time of writing. Given recent performance and projected starting pitchers, TCU may have the edge in this matchup. The Horned Frogs had a much more difficult route to Omaha and come away with a much more impressive run differential.
Given the high-profile nature of ORU’s run through this postseason, buy-low value in them is long gone in futures. However, I also don’t currently see value on the TCU moneyline in this game.
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