Tails Outcomes: Are The Saints Legit? Will They Bounce Back Week 4 vs. Falcons?

The goal of this weekly column is to filter through much of the noise of stats and data to highlight those stats that matter as a framework for NFL spread bets in Week 4 that betting apps in the market might not capture well. This week, we’re looking at an NFC South showdown between the Saints and Falcons in Atlanta.  As always in my work, I will try to orient my research towards tail outcomes, which are more difficult for sports betting sites to price.

These tail outcomes orient risk on a bettor’s side while not needing to win your NFL picks more than half the time in order to profit.

Expert NFL Spread Bets: Saints vs. Falcons Week 4

The narrative and market view on the Saints has been like that of a stock volatility chart– with low expectations to begin the season, followed by two dominant wins and massive market upgrades to now the market selling off following a Week 3 loss to the Eagles.

But football is a game of distributions, and there is so much randomness in any given game that one game almost never reveals the full story. In looking at the bigger sample, we get a clearer understanding of the distribution of outcomes. Breaking news: the Saints won’t score 40 points every game. 

This is more so to say that in evaluating where the team is at now and how good we can project them going forward, we are probably better served looking at some more of the longer-term data. Of course, this data is also limited by a small sample but is the best we have to work with.

How Does The Betting Market Rank The Saints and Falcons?

Adjusting for home-field advantage, the market is implying these teams are about even on a neutral field. But is that warranted? In this week’s NFL power rankings from TheLines.com staff, the Saints consensus ranking was No. 11, with the Falcons at No. 15, in our weekly exercise to try and rank who we would have favored on a neutral field for this week only. Clearly, our staff seems to be in disagreement with the current market.

Saints and Falcons Rakings in Advanced Metrics

Courtesy of some charts from Ben Baldwin, we can see that, at least through three games, these teams are not even in the same ballpark of production. Looking at EPA per play, we see the Saints firmly in the top right only behind the Bills in their combined offensive and defensive production.

But EPA can be skewed–especially in a small sample by turnovers and big plays. Still. looking at how teams have moved the ball on a series-to-series basis, we see that these teams are again in very different tiers. Choose your efficiency metric, and the Saints have been far better than the Falcons. 

Why Falcons May Struggle To Slow Saints Offense

Now looking at the matchup in particular, there is little reason to think that the Saints are going to struggle offensively. This chart takes a look at how often teams force and face quick pressure, defined as plays with pressure coming within 2.5 seconds.

The Falcons have struggled immensely to generate quick pressure, with the third-lowest rate in the NFL:

Meanwhile, Derek Carr, for his career and this year, has some of the most drastic splits in the NFL when pressured vs. not. Carr has the second-highest EPA per play when not facing quick pressure but is at the bottom of the NFL when facing quick pressure. Of course, the sample here is small, but the direction is likely accurate, at least when accounting for Carr’s traits as a QB along with his historical career averages.

Whereas last week the Eagles generated quick pressure on 32% of snaps, given the state of the Falcons’ pass rush, even accounting for the Saints’ offensive line injuries, that rate should be far lower in this game, and Carr should have plenty of time to operate where he has been at his best. 

Saints Offensive Line Injuries

The Saints will be without Cesar Ruiz and Erik McCoy. Of course, these injuries matter but they are likely overstated by the market.

Cesar Ruiz, who is enjoying a breakout season at guard, had been for four years running one of PFF’s worst-graded blockers. So, too, with Lucas Patrick –PFF’s No. 3 graded blocker who will now take over for Eric McCoy– never had a season not in the bottom quartile of blocking.

I think the improvement on the offensive line is more likely to be schematic than player development, and the injuries to the Saints interior affect them less than they would some other team. Against this pass-rush, Carr should still have ample time to throw and enjoy passing success.

Falcons Offensive Concerns

When the Falcons have the ball, the offense has performed at about an average clip (see the charts above). And there is no matchup angle, I think, to suggest that the Falcons should enjoy an unusual amount of success in this game. For years running now, the Saints have a top run defense, and early returns this year suggest they will once again be a solid unit as they have the ninth-best EPA per rush and seventh-best Success Rate allowed.

If anything, the strength of this Saints defense so far this season has been their pass rush, while the Falcons’ weakest area on offense is their pass protection. The Falcons’ offensive line is also likely to be down two starters in Tackle Kaleb McGary and Center Drew Dalman. 

Tail Outcomes: NFL Spread Bets With Longer Odds

While the market has moved a bit to ATL (-2.5 as of Thursday morning), I don’t think that properly captures the fundamental differences between these teams, along with how this matchup plays into the Saints’ strengths. If the Saints offense is as good as this thesis projects, they should put up points quickly and be able to win with margin.

Potential NFL Alternate Spread Bets: Saints vs. Falcons

I like the Saints on the ML and the alts as well. Click on the odds below if you are interested in betting now.