Tail Outcomes: Key Injuries Lead To Alternate Spread Eagles vs. Giants Bets
A showdown between the favorite and longshot in NFC East odds comes Sunday when the Eagles take on the Giants in New York. With the Eagles a road Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-110) on BetMGM favorite, we must decipher whether the Birds will be able to withstand some key injuries on the offensive line and if the Giants can get back on track with star WR Malik Nabers likely back from a concussion. The answer should lead to some Eagles vs. Giants bets at juicier odds.
The goal of this weekly column is to filter through much of the noise of stats and data to highlight those stats that matter as a framework for betting that betting apps might not capture well. As always in my work, I will try to orient my research towards tail outcomes, which are more difficult for sports betting sites to price. These tail outcomes orient risk on a bettor’s side while not needing to win your NFL picks more than half the time in order to profit.
Eagles vs. Giants Bets: Alternate Spreads
Eagles at Giants
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Giants Moneyline
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Giants -2.5
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Giants -3
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Giants -3.5
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Giants -5.5
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Tail Outcomes For Eagles vs. Giants Bets
Eagles vs. Giants by EPA Per Play
Let us begin by taking a look at some of the team fundamentals to use as a frame for our analysis.
Here we have a look at EPA per play, which suggests that the Eagles have been the better team on offense and the Giants better on defense.
Now, of course, the goal here is not to simply look at a chart of EPA and end our analysis. But regardless of what efficiency metrics you want to use, it is fair to say that what is driving the pricing for the Eagles as three-point favorites lies in the offensive advantage the team has over the Giants.
So, if we are trying to source value in our bets, we are likely going to have to make the case that this assumption is not well founded or that there is at least a reason to believe that in this matchup, the Eagles won’t perform like a top-priced offense.
The Giants Have A Disruptive Defense
The Giants’ defense has performed at around an average clip as far as most production metrics go. But one area where they have been terrific is in generating pressure disruption, the types of plays where pressure arrives such that a QB cannot go through his progression.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts vs. Pressure
It is not just that the Giants have been dominant at generating these pressures, but that Jalen Hurts has been absolutely dreadful when facing disruption pressure.
Hurts has not faced pressure disruption that often, but on those plays, he has lost 1.2 points in expectancy on average. Now, increasing the disruption pressure rate might not seem like such a large increase, but in a game with thin margins, even a 5% increase in disruption pressures can go a long way in influencing a game. Should Hurts see even a 5% increase in the rate of disruption pressure, using the base rates here, that would mean the Eagles lose about a field goal worth of points in expectancy.
Eagles Left Tackle Injured
Hurts is missing all-world left tackle Jordan Mailta to injury. Mailata has been a staple on the left side of the line for the Eagles where he is ranks fourth in PFF grade.
Meanwhile, his replacement, Fred Johnson, has graded out as the eighth-worst tackle so far and allowed 11 pressures in his start against Tampa Bay, filling in for Lane Johnson.
This is a great illustration of the weak link nature of offensive line play and how having just one bad OL can nuke an entire play. Going from a stalwart in Mailata to Johnson, especially against this pass rush, leaves room for concern.
Giants Offense Under Head Coach Brian Daboll
The offense looks like a completely different unit following Brian Daboll taking over the playcalling. Since then, the Giants have designed an offense for Jones to get rid of the ball quickly. The result is that the Giants have shown up very highly in many metrics that can capture the scheme or show how well the QB is playing within it. The Giants rank:
- No. 3 in Disruption Rate Allowed
- No. 6 in Coverage Mistakes Forced
- No. 2 in Separation Generated
- No. 6 in Quick Pressure Allowed
Regardless of the metrics you choose, the story will likely remain the same: the Giants offense looks like a far different unit with Daboll calling the plays. And for much of this sample, the Giants were without their best WR in Malik Nabers, who should only bolster these numbers, and considering his ability after the catch should add a layer of explosiveness the Giants offense has been missing.
Eagles Defense Has Red Flags
It is not as though the Eagles strength lies in their defense, as it ranks near the bottom of the league in most metrics and will could be without cornerback Darius Slay, who left Week 6 with an injury and is considered day-to-day.
There is little reason to think the Eagles will be able to force the Giants out of their newfound rhythm on offense.
Giants Also Lost Their Left Tackle
Throwing a wrench into this handicap, Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas will be out for the season. It’s certainly a blow to the Giants offense. But the market (rightfully) moved about 4% in the Eagles’ direction on the moneyline.
And while the Giants figure to get worse without Thomas, one could reasonably argue that the Giants’ schematic elements can mitigate the injury less than the market is pricing in. The Giants can mitigate quick pressure and allow little disruption.
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My Eagles vs. Giants Bets
This was not a case built on the backs of a dominant Giants O-line that was winning their one-on-one matchups. Rather, it was something schematic enabling these good outcomes. With this in mind, while the Giants figure to get worse without Thomas, there is a decent possibility the market is overstating the effects of the injury in this matchup against the Eagles.
I’ll be betting Giants Moneyline and considering some alternate spreads, too. Best of luck with your Eagles vs. Giants bets.