Tail Outcomes For NFL Spread Bets: Is Bears QB Caleb Williams Just Bad Right Now?

The goal of this weekly column is to filter through much of the noise of stats and data to highlight those stats that matter as a framework for NFL spread bets in Week 3 that betting apps in the market might not capture well. This week, I’m once again looking to the Colts and a matchup against rookie QB Caleb Williams. As always in my work, I will try to orient my research towards tail outcomes, more difficult for sports betting sites to price.

These tail outcomes orient risk on a bettor’s side while not needing to win your NFL picks more than half the time in order to profit.

NFL Week 3 Longshot Spread Bets: Colts vs. Bears

We are back to the Colts this week following a loss in which the Colts inexplicably gave up more than 260 yards on the ground to the Malik Willis-led Packers. But it is a new week, and the market has sold a bit on the Colts from the lookahead line of Colts -2.5, as the market has this game as Colts -1 at the time of this writing. 

Bears Defense Off To Strong Start

The strength of this Bears defense lies in this rush defense, which is top five in EPA/Rush and Success Rate allowed so far this season, building off a 2023 season in which they were No. 4 in EPA/Rush allowed and Rush Success Rate allowed.

Courtesy of PFF’s Timo Riskie, this ability to slow down the run has led to a high rate of opponent 3rd and longs and a very low series conversion rate allowed for the Bears’ defense:

Colts Offensive Line Off To Elite Start

The Colts present a different story and matchup altogether for the Bears. The Colts have by far the highest perfectly blocked run rate:

What Is Perfect Block Run Rate?

Perfect Block Run Rate captures the rate of plays where no blocker made a mistake. Because offensive lines are weak-link in nature, all it takes is one lineman to make a mistake for the entire play to blow up. As a result, the expected output for teams on perfectly blocked runs is equivalent to the best offense in football, whereas non-perfect blocked runs would be equivalent to worse than the worst team in football. 

The Colts have a massive rate of perfect blocked runs– which should mitigate the Bears matchup advantage stopping the run and elevate the floor of this Colts offense. But not only have they been winning in the trenches, With Taylor and Richardson back healthy the Colts have been winning after contact as well making them one of the most potent rushing attacks in the league from a fundamentals standpoint.

Add a high floor with the rushing attack to a Colts offense that wants to throw the ball downfield – Anthony Richardson has by far the highest depth of target in the NFL– and this is a Colts offense that should be able to hit on at least a few deep shots giving them some ability to score with margin against a defense that is towards the middle of the pack in depth of target against and explosive plays allowed.

This is not a defense, like the Bills, that is designed to take away deep shots and the Colts should have their opportunities especially if success in the run game draws down the Bears safeties. 

Bears QB Caleb Williams Has Been Bottom-Of-The-League Bad

There is no escape from the reality that Caleb Williams has struggled immensely in his first few starts. Looking at his production, Williams is at the very bottom of the league in both EPA/Play and PFF grade:

Now, that isn’t to say Williams can’t become great or that these two weeks are dispositive for success going forward. But the production has not been there. 

The supposed great cast for the Bears has looked fairly weak so far. The team is well below average in separation generated, and Williams himself has not helped them out by being one of the less accurate quarterbacks in all of football so far this season:

When Is Improv Night?

Likewise, Williams has seen a below-average rate of clean pockets and has been below-average in his production the times he does have clean pockets.

Perhaps most troubling for Williams has been his inability to create on his own—one of the main areas of excitement for him as a prospect and the part of his game that should be more isolated from his surroundings. When facing out-of-structure plays, Williams has been sixth worst in his “create rate,” defined by scrambling for positive yardage or extending the play to make an accurate throw to an open receiver. 

Tail Outcomes: NFL Spread Bets With Longer Odds

Through 2 weeks, when projecting Week 3 output, there is no real way to slice the data but to say that Williams currently projects as one of the worst starters in the NFL (unless you’re going heavily off of a draft prior).

And this is a Bears running game that has been terrible after contact and has a bottom EPA as a result. The Bears run game might just be bad enough that they cannot even take advantage of a matchup against this weak Colts rushing front. 

But the market is still clinging heavily to a prior on the Bears that Williams can be an average QB despite their inability to produce explosive plays– Caleb Williams has been dead last in PFF deep grade and deep accuracy– and the Bears as a team have the 3rd lowest series conversion rate so far this season. 

The Colts are built to play from ahead and rely on the run game, and with the Bears’ offensive struggling, I see some value on the Colts on the alts here.

Potential NFL Alternate Spread Bets: Colts vs. Bears

Click on the odds below to bet now. I’d bet the Colts up to -5.5. It was +180 earlier this week, but is starting to come down in price Thursday afternoon, at the time of publishing: