Tail Outcomes: Alternate Spreads To Back Rising Bears Rookie QB Caleb Williams vs. Jaguars

A showdown across the pond featuring rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and the Bears looms against the Jaguars in their home-away-from-home city of London. With a spread making Chicago a small favorite under the key number of three, we must decipher whether the improvement of Williams is due to an easy schedule in recent weeks or signs of sustainable rookie improvement before placing any Jaguars vs. Bears best bets.
The goal of this weekly column is to filter through much of the noise of stats and data to highlight those stats that matter as a framework for betting that betting apps might not capture well. As always in my work, I will try to orient my research towards tail outcomes, which are more difficult for sports betting sites to price. These tail outcomes orient risk on a bettor’s side while not needing to win your NFL picks more than half the time in order to profit.
NFL Week 6 Alternate Spreads: Jaguars vs. Bears Best Bets
Click on the odds in the table to bet now. Read on for all the reasons why I believe Caleb Williams and the Bears offense are in a matchup to continue their momentum in London.
Bears vs. Jaguars
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Bears -2.5
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Bears -3.5
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Bears -4.5
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Bears -5.5
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Is Caleb Williams Improving Or Playing Bad Defenses?
Figuring out Jaguars vs. Bears best bets in London requires deciding between two interesting choices. Is this game about managing sample sizes or more about the development of a rookie QB in the NFL? Courtesy of Ben Baldwin, we can see the progression of Caleb Williams and his output over the first five weeks of the season, with an improving PFF grade and EPA/Play output.
As a result, the Bears offense has also seen an upward trajectory as measured by Earned Drive Points, which captures how well teams can reproduce and sustainably move the ball on their drives. No matter how you slice it, this is a Bears team that has seen some improvement as the season has progressed.
Is it sustainable, or are they simply taking advantage of easy matchups?
Isn’t the Jaguars Defense Another Easy Matchup?
But it is not as though the Jaguars present a much more difficult matchup, especially with regard to their pass defense. They are:
- Last in Pass EPA/Play allowed
- No. 30 in Yards Per Attempt
- Seventh-worst in Pressure Rate
Choose an efficiency stat or metric and it will likely reveal that this Jaguars defense has performed at one the worst levels in the NFL so far this season.
So Where Does That Leave Us With Caleb Williams?
There is some compelling evidence that rookie QBs tend to get better as the season develops and as they play more in the NFL.
Let’s first turn to some of the admittedly small sample size data we have to look at any difference in Williams’s play style. After sitting around 2.8 seconds to throw in the first two weeks of the season, that number has ballooned to 3.1 seconds over the last three weeks. That has coincided with Williams performing far better when the play breaks down as his disruption grade and disruption EPA has improved every week, while his creating ability– throws to open windows or positive scrambles, which are both production agnostic– is up to 34% from 20.2% in Weeks 1 and 2.
This is to say that there is room to believe that Williams is improving. The early-weeks sample currently priced into the Bears rating and Williams prop prices is not as relevant, seeing as the last few weeks likely provide more signal in predicting future performance.
What About The Bears Defense vs. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence?
However, the sample size question cannot only be leveled against Williams and the Bears. The Jaguars had their best offensive pass output last week with a 0.27 EPA/Play. However, the team also did not face a single instance of quick pressure against the absent and hurt Colts pass rush in Week 4.
The Bears present an entirely different story as a team that is one of the very best at generating quick pressure and has had a quick pressure rate of at least 20% in every game this season.
Likewise, Lawrence has been extremely reliant on the deep ball for his success, with 50% of his yardage coming from explosive plays, which is the third-highest mark in the NFL. This, of course, is not isolated from the quick pressure question as it is virtually impossible to throw deep when quick pressured often, and the greater the sample of plays without quick pressure, the more opportunities there are for deep shots.
Nonetheless, this is a Bears defense that has forced opponents into a shallow depth of target, with every game’s depth of target coming in the 7.15-7.9-yard range and with one of the lowest deep attempts faced in the NFL. Lawrence will likely need to sustain drives in the short and intermediate areas where the Jaguars’ offense has been eighth worst in Success Rate and where the Bears’ defense has been third-best in pass Success Rate Allowed.
Tail Outcomes: Jaguars vs. Bears Best Bets
Another way of understanding this is that the Jaguars are a highly volatile offense, and if the explosive plays are not connecting– where CHI has been solid defending– then this offense may struggle to score points and has a decent probability of a low-scoring game, which is precisely what we are looking for in tails outcomes for potential Jaguars vs. Bears best bets.
Combine that with Caleb Williams in an easy matchup and likely improving as a player, and we have a great recipe for a tails bet on Bears alternate spreads for Jaguars vs. Bears best bets.