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NFL Week 16 Look-Ahead Lines And Betting Market Moves For Week 15

FairwayJay December 13, 2018
NFL Week 16 Lines

The FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey and the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas release NFL advance look-ahead lines each week, and Week 16 features six division games as teams race down the stretch trying to secure a playoff spot. The Vikings try to tame the Lions in their den and Minnesota needs a win to hold onto their wild card position while the Panthers host the Falcons with Carolina needing to help themselves heading into a Week 15 Monday night match-up with division rival New Orleans.

Two Saturday games will kick off Week 16 action with no Thursday night game on the schedule. A potential playoff preview and key AFC contest has Baltimore traveling west to tackle the LA Chargers.

Review the NFL Week 16 look-ahead lines below and start preparing to watch and wager on some key division games and primetime games with playoff contenders.

Adjusting to market moves

Road favorites struggled for the second straight week as bettors poured their money on the favorites and came up short. Week 14 road favorites went just 3-5 SU/ATS with all five ATS losses in straight-up fashion. The last two weeks have seen road favorites go 6-9 SU and 5-10 ATS. Week 15 has four road favorites, including some key contests as New England visits Pittsburgh and New Orleans at Carolina on Monday night.

According to Sports Insights, which monitors sportsbooks and betting activity, the Saints (-6.5) are taking 73% of the bets against the Panthers while the Patriots (-2.5) are taking a week-high 82% of the bets against the Steelers as of Thursday afternoon.

The two other road favorites are Houston (-7) at the NY Jets and Seattle (-4.5) at San Francisco. The Texans are taking 75% of the bets while the Seahawks are taking 68% of the bets.

Those four teams as road favorites are taking four of the five most bets and betting action, as the Rams (-11.5) have been bet up and are taking 71% of the bets at home against the Eagles. So a majority of bettors are not adjusting but more often chasing market moves. That includes on Seattle, who despite taking a majority of the bets has seen the line drop and reverse line movement. More bets have come in on the Seahawks, yet the line has dropped, indicating more sharp action on the 49ers.

Adjusting to the market moves and even optional bets like teasers is a strategy to consider and employ, but hard habits are tough to break if you just wager on favorites and like to tease them down. Last week the Patriots (-8.5) and Steelers (-10) lost outright as big road favorites, and the last play touchdown and Miami Miracle by the Dolphins took out all teasers and money line bets on the Patriots as well.

Despite many teams being eliminated from the playoffs, we saw last week that even the dregs at the bottom of the standings like the Oakland, San Francisco, New York Jets, Cleveland and even Miami as big underdog can rise up as beaten ‘Dogs. The previous week, the NY Giants, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, who had lost seven straight games, also rose up in victory as ugly underdogs as the market moves on the favorites increased.

The contrary nature of the NFL produces surprising results on a weekly basis. Are you adjusting to the market moves and making the right reads and in-game betting adjustments as you make your wagers?

Week 15 look-ahead lines and major moves

Many bettors react more to recent results and are often unwilling to bet on bad teams. That’s what happened the past two weeks and is continuing in Week 15. Injuries can clearly impact the market and major moves, and we’ve seen a number of teams turn to backup quarterbacks as the starters suffer injuries.

Mark Sanchez (WAS), Cody Kessler (JAX), Chase Daniel (CHI), Jeff Driskel (CIN) and Nick Mullens (SF) have started in recent weeks, and now Josh Johnson (WAS) will start at quarterback for the Redskins in Week 15 after saying, “a week ago I was home in the hood, chilling with the kids.” Not exactly a positive profile or position to support with your betting dollars, nor is laying 7.5 points with the Jaguars and their mess and quarterback situation as Jacksonville tackles Washington in Week 15. Yet the Jaguars are taking 64% of the bets just two weeks removed from a seven-game losing streak and a home game against the Colts when Jacksonville was taking less than 35% of the bets.

The biggest line moves from the Week 15 look ahead lines to the current lines are:

  • Cleveland at Denver (DEN -6, SuperBook) – Current line Broncos -2.5
  • Washington at Jacksonville (JAX -5.5, FanDuel) – Current line Jaguars -7.5
  • Seattle at San Francisco (SEA -7, SuperBook) – Current line Seahawks -4
  • Philadelphia at LA Rams (LAR -8, FanDuel) – Current line Rams -11.5

NFL Week 16 look-ahead betting lines

Key games to look forward to in Week 16 includes the aforementioned Ravens and Chargers in Los Angeles on Saturday. The pressure mounts on the Steelers Sunday afternoon as they travel to New Orleans, followed by the primetime Sunday night game between Kansas City and Seattle.

Don’t’ forget to tune in Monday night as the Raiders host division rival Broncos in what may be the final home game in Oakland. The Raiders are looking for a new stadium to call home for the 2019 season as the city of Oakland recently filed lawsuits against the Raiders and the NFL. The Raiders move to Las Vegas for the 2020 season, and the NFL recently announced that Las Vegas will host the NFL draft in 2020.

GameWestgate LineFanDuel Line
Washington at TennesseeTEN -10.5TEN -10
Baltimore at LA ChargersLAC -5LAC -5.5
Tampa Bay at DallasDAL -7.5DAL -6.5
Buffalo at New EnglandNE -13NE -13.5
Atlanta at CarolinaCAR -6CAR -5
Jacksonville at MiamiMIA -4MIA -6
NY Giants at IndianapolisIND -6IND -6
Houston at PhiladelphiaPKHOU -2
Minnesota at DetroitMIN -3MIN -3.5
Green Bay at NY JetsGB -3.5GB -4
Cincinnati at ClevelandCLE -7CLE -7.5
LA Rams at ArizonaLAR -11.5LAR -9.5
Chicago at San FranciscoCHI -6CHI -5.5
Pittsburgh at New Orleans NO -7NO -6
Kansas City at SeattleSEA -1KC -1
Denver at OaklandDEN -2.5DEN -4

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NFL Week 15 Lines: Spreads, Totals And NJ Betting Guide

Marco Cerino December 12, 2018
NFL Week 15 Lines

We’re into the last month of the season and the stakes increase exponentially with each week. With three weeks to go, only six teams have been mathematically eliminated from the 2018 NFL playoffs.

In this article, we take a look at the NFL Week 15  slate and the betting odds at legal New Jersey sportsbooks.

(Odds updated 12/11/18)

 DraftKingsBetStarsFanDuel888sportSugarHouse
LA Chargers
Kansas City
56
-3.5
53
-3.5
52.5
-3
56
-3.5
56
-3.5
Houston
NY Jets
-6
41.5
-6.5
41.5
-6.5
41
-6
41.5
-6
41.5
Cleveland
Denver
45.5
-3
45.5
-3
45
-3
45.5
-3
45.5
-3
Arizona
Atlanta
44
-9
44
-8.5
44
-8.5
44
-9
44
-9
Dallas
Indianapolis
47
-2.5
47
-2.5
46.5
-3
47
-2.5
47
-2.5
Detroit
Buffalo
38.5
-2.5
38
-2.5
38.5
-2.5
38.5
-2.5
38.5
-2.5
Green Bay
Chicago
45
-5.5
45
-5.5
45
-5.5
45
-5.5
45
-5.5
Miami
Minnesota
44.5
-7
44.5
-7
44.5
-7
44.5
-7
Oakland
Cincinnati
45.5
-3
46
-3
45.5
-3
45.5
-3
45.5
-3
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
46.5
-8
47
-8
47
-8
47
-8
47
-8
Tennessee
NY Giants
43.5
-2.5
43
-2.5
43.5
-2.5
43.5
-2.5
43.5
-2.5
Washington
Jacksonville
36
-7
36
-7
36
-7.5
36
-7
36
-7
Seattle
San Francisco
-5.5
43.5
-5.5
44
-6
44
-5.5
43.5
-5.5
43.5
New England
Pittsburgh
-1.5
53
-1
52.5
-1.5
53
-1.5
53
Philadelphia
LA Rams
53.5
-9
53.5
-9
53.5
-9
53.5
-9
53.5
-9
New Orleans
Carolina
-6
52
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
-6
52
-6
52

Week 15 betting breakdown

Chargers at Chiefs (-3): Both teams can clinch something with a win. The Chiefs, the only team guaranteed an AFC playoff spot as of now, will take the division with a victory. LA will lock up at least a wild card berth. Currently, the Chiefs are on a nine-game winning streak against the Chargers, the longest in the rivalry’s history.

Texans (-6.5) at Jets: Yep, it’s that time of year. When the NFL gets to take over another weekend day and give fans reasons to shirk responsibilities and watch games. After whiffing on the chance to clinch the AFC South last week, Houston needs this win and a Colts loss to shore up the division crown. They enter having won the last two against the Jets, who are still technically alive for a playoff spot.

Browns at Broncos (-3.5): Both teams are still in the playoff hunt (barely) so this becomes an eliminator game. The Broncos have won every meeting since Cleveland returned to play in ‘99. But this is a new Cleveland team that has won three of five games since Gregg Williams took over for Hue Jackson.

Raiders at Bengals (-3): Despite the late upset of the Steelers in Week 14, Oakland is out of the hunt, while losing Andy Dalton has all but sealed Cincy’s fate. The Bengals have won three of the last four against the Raiders.

Titans at Giants (-2.5): Considerable regional bias, given the Titans are part of the four-team pack chasing the last AFC Wild Card spot and the Giants are, well, chasing ghosts. Tennessee has won four of the last five meetings, including the last two in North Jersey.

Buccaneers at Ravens (-8): The Ravens still hold the final wild card spot in the AFC, tenuously, while the Bucs tenuously hold on to hope. Baltimore has won the last three over Tampa.

Lions at Bills (-2.5): The Bills’ late loss to the Jets eliminated them, while the Lions are close to the chopping block as well. Matthew Stafford enters 0-2 against Buffalo and 3-7 against the AFC East in his career.

Cowboys at Colts (-3): Recency bias doesn’t work for Dallas, which can clinch the NFC East with a win or Philly and Washington loss. The Colts need to win to stay in the AFC Wild Card hunt. Dallas has won the last three meetings.

Redskins at Jaguars (-7): Yep, this is a 36 total for an NFL game in the same season two teams covered 63 and then some. The Redskins, who needs this to maintain any wild card viability, have won the last three meetings. No idea who will start under center as of Monday.

Dolphins at Vikings (-8): Both teams will need wins to stay alive in wild card hunts. Not a lot of books had this on their boards Monday ahead of the MNF game between Minnesota and Seattle. Miami has won the last three in this series.

Packers at Bears: No prices on this game as of Monday morning. Chicago can clinch the division with a win if Minnesota loses Monday night at Seattle or against Miami in Week 15. Green Bay has won nine of the last 10 in this rivalry.

Cardinals at Falcons (-8.5): Atlanta has won the last eight at home against Arizona, going back to 1994. No variation in pricing at the NJ sportsbooks to open the week.

Seahawks (-5.5) at 49ers: Look for more prices and perhaps a jump in the spread based on Monday night’s result. Seattle looks to make it 10 in a row against their division rivals.

Patriots at Steelers: No prices were set for this game on Monday as we await an update on Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh blew a big chance to inch closer to a higher seed in Week 14, as did New England. The Pats have won the last four regular season meetings.

Eagles at Rams: A lot of the sizzle in this big rematch was lost when the Eagles lost in Dallas. Philly can still make a wild card berth if they win out and get help, while LA has clinched the NFC West but still wants homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The Eagles have won the last five meetings, dating back to 2005.

Saints (-6.5) at Panthers: The Saints have wrapped up the NFC South and can win out to clinch homefield advantage. Carolina needs a win to stay in the Wild Card hunt. The division rivals have split the last six regular season games at the Superdome, with New Orleans winning the last two and the Wild Card round game last year.

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‘Miami Miracle’ Highlights A Week 14 That Left NFL Bettors Baffled

FairwayJay December 11, 2018
Miami Miracle

Week 14 NFL action featured a season-high eight road favorites, and many of those favorites took a majority of the betting action from recreational bettors. The results left many scratching their heads.

Losing outright as road favorites were the Panthers (-1), Patriots (-9), Rams (-3), Broncos (-3) and Steelers (-10). Road favorites went 3-5 SU and 3-5 ATS in Week 14. Those results followed a Week 13 in which seven road favorites went 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS with the Saints (-7.5), Colts (-3), Panthers (-3.5), and Bears (-3.5) all losing outright as road favorites.

The Miami Miracle

The biggest result that left bettors baffled was the New England loss at Miami, now known as the “Miami Miracle!”  The Dolphins (+9) covered the spread from start to finish against the Patriots. The game was clean with no turnovers, and New England led 27-21 at halftime after Tom Brady took a sack inside the Miami 10-yard line in the closing seconds of the 2nd quarter and the Patriots were unable to attempt a field goal.

Still, Patriots side bettors along with moneyline and teaser wagers on New England were still okay. But following a rare missed field goal of 42 yards by Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski midway through the third quarter, Ryan Tannehill completed four straight passes covering 69 yards including the 23-yards touchdown strike to Brice Butler to put Miami ahead 28-27. The Patriots responded with a pair of field goals in the fourth quarter including the latter after New England failed to score a touchdown from 1st and goal at the Miami 7 yard line in the final minute. Miami got the ball back at their own 31 yard line with 16 seconds left down 33-28, and then the Miami Miracle left the players and fans in mayhem.

“A Miracle … Miraculous in Miami” is how the announcer described the Tannehill pass to Kenny Stills, hook-and-lateral to Devante Parker and shuffle to speedy running back Kenyan Drake, whose shifty moves and circling inside the 40-yard line led him to the end zone and the Miami Miracle.

Drake gets credit for a 52-yard touchdown reception after the wild hook-and-ladder walk-off touchdown. Miami is now 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS against New England in the Patriots last seven visits to South Beach. Three times in the last four seasons Miami has beaten New England as at least a 9-point underdog. Tom Brady passed for 358 yards and 3 touchdowns in defeat, and New England had a week-high 35:14 minutes of possession time to 24:46 for Miami, and the Patriots ran 75 plays to just 45 for the Dolphins.

The desperation Dolphins score to complete the Miami Miracle keeps Miami (7-6) in the playoff chase and a 4-way tie for the final AFC wild card playoff spot with Baltimore (7-6), Indianapolis (7-6) and Tennessee (7-6). The LA Chargers (10-3) lead the AFC wild card chase, and Los Angeles has the huge Thursday night contest this week at Kansas City (11-2) with the AFC West division title still to be decided.

The Tennessee Tornado

Week 14 started with Tennessee trouncing Jacksonville on Thursday night, 30-9. That result was a good start to the week for bettors as a majority of the bets were on the Titans, who were bet up from -4 to -5.5 at kickoff. Derrick Henry ran his way into the record books in the rout with a 99-yard touchdown run that featured multiple stiff-arms down the sideline on his way to tying Tony Dorsett’s record run from 1983. The Titans had a week-high 264 rushing yards in the victory to keep them in the AFC playoff chase.

Week 14 NFL betting action

Sports Insights, which tracks sports bets from seven contributing sportsbooks, noted the highest moneyline odds tracked on the Dolphins was +820. That’s unusually high, and most sportsbooks closed Miami (+9) with Dolphins moneyline near +350.  Many sportsbooks had significant action on the Patriots with many moneyline bettors laying more than -400 and 60% of the side bets on New England.

The Sunday night feature in the freezing temperatures of Chicago saw the Rams (-3) go down to the Bears, 15-6. Los Angeles received 80% of spread bets and 75% on moneyline bets at FanDuel Sportsbook, costing many bettors more money as they chased losses on the Sunday night game. Under the total (51) received 56% of the bets at BetStars Sportsbook, so more bettors were rewarded betting for a lower-scoring result.

Other road favorites that took a higher percentage of bets that proved costly for more bettors included:

  • Sharp money came in on San Francisco, dropping the line from -5 to -3 at kickoff. Reverse line movement due to wise guy money supporting San Francisco.
  • Oakland received sharp money early in the week against Pittsburgh (-10) as the line dropped from the opener of -13. The Raiders pulled off the upset, 24-21.
  • The spread on Carolina (-1) at Cleveland fluctuated from PK to -2 all week. Panthers QB Cam Newton failed to help Panthers bettors in the closing minutes. Trailing 26-20, Carolina had 2nd and goal at the Browns 3-yard line and Newton threw incomplete passes on 3rd and 4th down, and then an interception on the first play after Carolina got the ball back at their 35 yard line in the final minute. Carolina has lost five straight games and is now given just a 7% chance to make the playoffs according to fivethirtyeight.com.

The most popular game of the week for bettors, according to SugarHouse, was the Bears vs. Rams matchup on Sunday night. That was followed by Cowboys vs. Eagles and Saints vs. Buccaneers.

NFL Week 14 Lines: Spreads, Totals and NJ Betting Guide

Marco Cerino December 9, 2018
NFL Week 14 Odds

Tired of all that Christmas music (this early)? Well this week, put on an album celebrating 35 years of killer licks and sweet lyrics. I’m talking about ZZ Top’s hit machine Eliminator.

Week 14 in the NFL has some matchups that certainly evoke that title. Like the big tracks on that album, the rivalries stand the test of time and get better with age. So bust out your hi-fi or 8-track and let’s turn up the volume. Here are the lines for the slate of games at New Jersey sportsbooks.

(Odds updated 12/9/18)

 DraftKingsBetStarsFanDuel888sportSugarHouse
Jacksonville
Tennessee
38
-4
37.5
-4.5
37.5
-4
38
-4
38
-4
Atlanta
Green Bay
50
-3.5
50
-3.5
50
-3.5
50
-3.5
50
-3.5
Baltimore
Kansas City
50.5
-6.5
50
-6.5
50
-6.5
50.5
-6.5
50.5
-6.5
Carolina
Cleveland
47
PK
47.5
PK
-1
47.5
47
PK
47
PK
Indianapolis
Houston
49.5
-4
48.5
-4.5
49.5
-4
49.5
-4
49.5
-4
New England
Miami
-8.5
48
-9
48.5
-9.5
48.5
-8.5
48
-8.5
48
New Orleans
Tampa Bay
-9.5
54.5
-10
54.5
-10
55
-9.5
54.5
-9.5
54.5
NY Giants
Washington
-3
40.5
-3
40.5
-3
40.5
-3
40.5
-3
40.5
NY Jets
Buffalo
37.5
-4.5
37.5
-4.5
37
-4.5
37.5
-4.5
37.5
-4.5
Cincinnati
LA Chargers
48
-15
48
-15
48
-15
48.5
-15
48.5
-15
Denver
San Francisco
-3
45
-3.5
44.5
-3
45
-3
45
-3
45
Detroit
Arizona
-2.5
40.5
-2.5
40.5
-2.5
40.5
-2.5
40.5
-2.5
40.5
Philadelphia
Dallas
45.5
-3.5
45.5
-3.5
45.5
-3.5
45.5
-3.5
45.5
-3.5
Pittsburgh
Oakland
-9.5
50.5
-10
51
-10.5
51
-9.5
50.5
-9.5
50.5
LA Rams
Chicago
-3
51
-3
51
-3
51.5
-3
51
-3
51
Minnesota
Seattle
45.5
-3.5
45.5
-3
45.5
-3
45.5
-3.5
45.5
-3.5

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Week 14 betting breakdown

Jaguars at Titans (-4.5): Tennessee, which needs a win to stay in the AFC wild card hunt, gets the edge from the books here having won three straight and five of the last six against its division rivals. The low total (38 at open) harkens back to the 9-6 barnburner earlier this year in Jacksonville.

Falcons at Packers (-3.5): Interestingly, this is the third straight meeting between the teams at Lambeau that happens on Week 14. Both teams are coming off embarassing home losses in Week 13. This opened at Packers -6 early in the week and then dropped to -3.5 at most books as of Sunday morning.

Ravens at Chiefs (-6.5): Baltimore has won the last three in KC, although the teams haven’t met at Arrowhead since Andy Reid took over in 2013. This line didn’t move much during the week and will likely close short of a full touchdown despite most of the public money coming in on the Chiefs.

Panthers (-1) at Browns: “Sharp Dressed Man” Cam Newton leads Carolina into this must-win game on the road for their playoff chances. The Panthers opened as two point favorotes but it was a pick at a few NJ books on Sunday.

Colts at Texans (-4): Houston, on a nine-game winning streak, has only won one of the last five times hosting Indy, but this current version of the Texans has ripped off nine straight wins.

Patriots (-9) at Dolphins: New England can clinch the AFC East with a win. Miami has won three of the last five hosting the Pats. This line held at Pats -7.5 for much of the week but there was some steam on New England during the weekend.

Saints (-10) at Buccaneers: Again, New Orleans can clinch the NFC South with a win against Tampa, which has won the last two meetings at home. Tampa also won the first meeting between these two teams in Week 1 of this season.

Giants (-3) at Redskins: The Mark Sanchez experience continues in Washington, leaving the Redskins as home dogs against the Giants. Odell Beckham was ruled out on Saturday but the line only moved half a point.

Jets at Bills (-4.5): The Bills get the recency bias after thumping the Jets at the Meadowlands last month. This opened at Bills -3.5 and slowly moved to -4.5 over the course of the week.

Broncos (-3.5) at 49ers: Denver can stay in the playoff hunt with a win over the eliminated Niners. Case Keenum has lost both appearances against San Fran in his career.

Bengals at Chargers (-15): Philip Rivers enters 2-4 against the Bengals but has yet to face them since moving to LA. The FanDuel look-ahead line last week was LAC -13, but Cincinnati once again failed to cover at home against Denver and the Chargers looked impressive in a comeback win at Pittsburgh.

Lions (-2.5) at Cardinals: The Lions need a win to keep their fading playoff hopes alive. Arizona is flying high after beating Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau.

Eagles at Cowboys (-3.5): Philly has won four of the last five at Jerruhworld, but stock on Dallas is high after a win over the Saints. These numbers will move if the Birds defend home turf against Washington on Monday night and show their drive to repeat still has legs.

Steelers (-10.5) at Raiders: Oakland has won all three meetings between the two historic rivals since moving back from LA. Two losses to the Raiders’ AFC West rivals (Chargers, Broncos) may have Tomlin and Big Ben humming “Under Pressure.”

Rams (-3) at Bears: LA enters with the best record in football and the NFC West clinched. Chicago is fighting for a division title and gets the return of Mitchell Trubisky at QB.

Vikings at Seahawks (-3): Big game to establish order in the NFC wild card race, where Seattle has a good grip on the top slot. Minnesota benefits the most from the NFC East maelstrom but hasn’t won in Seattle since 2006.

NFL Week 15 Look-Ahead Lines And Betting Market Moves For Week 14

FairwayJay December 6, 2018
Week 15 Lines

The FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey and the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas release NFL advance look-ahead lines every week, and Week 15 features four division games headlined by a pair of primetime playoff previews. The Los Angeles Chargers visit Kansas City in a key AFC West contest that could be for first place, and Monday Night Football has the New Orleans Saints traveling to Carolina to tackle the Panthers.

Then there’s the Eagles and Rams on Sunday night. We’re seeing more meaningful games down the stretch as teams push for the playoffs, and these conference games will impact the standings and playoff positioning. And the betting odds set by sportsbooks seem to be getting tighter by the week.

Review the NFL Week 15 look-ahead lines below and start preparing to watch and wager on some key division games and prime time games with playoff contenders.

Adjusting to market moves

Last week we noted the big adjustments in the betting lines and season-high seven road favorites taking a majority of the betting action. Most bettors took a hit wagering on favorites, as those road favorites went 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in Week 13 action. The Saints started the down week losing at Dallas Thursday 13-10 as a 7.5-point road favorite.

Adjusting to the market moves and even optional bets like teasers is a strategy to consider and employ, but hard habits are tough to break if you just wager on favorites and like to tease them down. The Saints were not the only big favorite to get stung last week, as the Packers (-14) were upset at home by Arizona 20-17, and head coach Mike McCarthy was fired by Green Bay. Other road favorites or more than 3 points that lost in Week 13 included the Colts (6-0), Panthers (24-17) and Bears (30-27) in overtime. The Falcons were not a big favorite but took a ton of betting action going from a 2.5-point home underdog to a 2.5-point favorite. But the Falcons were dominated by the Ravens, and Atlanta gained a week-low 131 yards at 2.9 yards per play in a 26-16 beatdown by Baltimore.

Despite many teams being eliminated from the playoffs, we saw last week that even the dregs at the bottom of the standings like the NY Giants, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, who had lost seven straight games, can rise up and win as an ugly underdog. The contrary nature of the NFL produces surprising results like the Cowboys over the Saints, the Colts getting shutout at Jacksonville and the Giants upset of the Bears. Those results are almost always a good result for the sports books, so evaluate the games and match-ups and be willing to change your approach and thoughts throughout the NFL season.

Week 14 look-ahead lines and major moves

Many bettors react more to recent results and are often unwilling to bet on bad teams. That’s what happened last week with so many ugly underdogs and home puppies gaining some footing. Injuries are derailing some team’s seasons, and Week 14 will see a continuation and addition of more backup quarterbacks getting the call to lead their teams. Mark Sanchez (WASH), Cody Kessler (JAX), Chase Daniel (CHI), Jeff Driskel (CIN) and Nick Mullens (SF) will likely start at quarterback. Those teams will take fewer bets (again), and all are underdogs.

As of Thursday, four of those teams were taking less than 30% of the bets on a consensus of public betting trends from seven sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights through The Action Network. The other team, Jacksonville, was taking 37% of the bets in their Thursday night game at Tennessee.

The biggest line moves from the Week 14 look ahead lines to the current lines are:

  • Baltimore at Kansas City (KC -9.5, SuperBook) – Current line Chiefs -7
  • Indianapolis at Houston (HOU -3, SuperBook) – Current line Texans -5
  • NY Giants at Washington (WASH -3, SuperBook) – Current line Giants -3.5

NFL Week 15 look-ahead betting lines

Along with the three primetime games featuring first place teams and a few others pushing towards the playoffs, the Dallas at Indianapolis and New England at Pittsburgh games are likely to draw the most betting action.

GameWestgate LineFanDuel Line
LA Chargers at Kansas CityKC -4KC -3
Houston at NY JetsHOU -7HOU -6
Cleveland at DenverDEN -6DEN -4.5
Miami at MinnesotaMIN -8.5MIN -9
Oakland at CincinnatiCIN -4.5CIN -3
Tampa Bay at BaltimoreBAL -7BAL -7
Dallas at IndianapolisPKIND -2.5
Detroit at BuffaloPKDET -1
Green Bay at ChicagoCHI -6CHI -4.5
Tennessee at NY GiantsNYG -1.5NYG -2.5
Washington at JacksonvilleJAX -6.5JAX -5.5
Arizona at AtlantaATL -7.5ATL -7
Seattle at San FranciscoSEA -7SEA -6
New England at PittsburghPIT -1.5PIT -1
Philadelphia at LA RamsLAR -7.5LAR -8
New Orleans at CarolinaNO -6.5NO -6

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NFL Week 14 Look-Ahead Lines And Betting Market Moves For Week 13

FairwayJay November 30, 2018
NFL Week 14

The FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey and the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas release NFL advance look-ahead lines, and Week 14 features a few key divisional matchups.

The NFL has backloaded the second half of the regular season schedule with more meaningful division games, and those division duels will have much of the betting action while determining which teams reach the playoffs and playoff positioning and seeding. Review the NFL Week 14 look-ahead lines below and start preparing to watch and wager on some key division games and prime time games with playoff contenders.

Adjusting to market moves

The Saints look-ahead line (-7.5) for Week 13 did not move, but bettors that sided with the streaking Saints or got tricky with a teaser bet on New Orleans found out the hard way that riding hot streaks or paying a price on the betting line can have consequences. Will the Cowboys 13-10 upset of the Saints on Thursday kickoff more upsets in Week 13? There are a total of seven road favorites in Week 13 action, and much of the betting action is on those road favorites, which is often a lower-percentage play from a betting perspective.

We continue to see some of the big adjustments in the betting lines based on the previous week’s results, and while more favorites have continued to cover over the past month, perhaps the Cowboys cashing in will be the game that turns the tide heading into December. As mentioned in last week’s look ahead lines article, “Don’t expect that to continue into December … a correction is likely in order.” That despite many teams being eliminated from the playoffs while taking more points as underdogs. The contrary nature of the NFL produces surprising results like the Cowboys over the Saints, and the sportsbooks cashed in on Dallas knowing that many bettors continue to ride the hot teams like the Saints and other winning teams.

Week 13 look-ahead lines and major moves

Many bettors react more to recent results and are often unwilling to bet on bad teams. Those teams will take fewer bets and less betting action in Week 13: Cowboys (+7.5), Jaguars (+4), Buccaneers (+3.5), NY Giants (+4), Bengals (+5), Lions (+10), Raiders (+15), 49ers (+10) and Vikings (+5). All but Minnesota and Dallas are losing teams, and the Vikings and Cowboys play the powerful Patriots and Saints, which many public bettors like to support.

According to the Action Network and their betting platform partner Sports Insights, which tracks public betting trends from consensus sportsbooks, those underdogs listed above are all taking less than 37% of the bets. So the percentage of bets on the public favorites are at least two out of every three side bets wagered.

For the Week 13 games on Sunday, Dec. 2, these are the games where there was at least a two-point difference from the look-ahead line in Las Vegas or New Jersey and current line: Notice the huge point spread swing from Cincinnati a 2.5-point favorite vs Denver to now the Bengals a 5.5-point home underdog to the Broncos.

  • Indianapolis at Jacksonville (IND -1.5, FanDuel) – Current line Colts -4
  • Buffalo at Miami (MIA -6, FanDuel) – Current line Dolphins -3.5
  • Denver at Cincinnati (CIN -2.5, SuperBook) – Current line Broncos -5.5
  • LA Rams at Detroit (LAR -7, SuperBook) – Current line Rams -10
  • Arizona at Green Bay (GB -11.5, SuperBook) – Current line Packers -14
  • NY Jets at Tennessee (TEN -5.5, FanDuel) – Current line Titans -8
  • San Francisco at Seattle (SEA -7.5, SuperBook) – Current line Seahawks -10

The major adjustments and market moves are against the losing teams again except for the Dolphins and Bills game, which had Miami too high on the look-ahead line but last week’s Bills win has dropped that line. The Dolphins have also lost four of their last five games with their only win over the bottom-feeding New York Jets.

The sportsbooks understand the need to adjust with most bettors unwilling to bet on the losing teams. Value will be available the rest of the year on many underdogs, like the Cowboys who beat the streaking Saints, and even the worst teams.

Scoring is at a record high 48.0 points per game this season, but follow the weather more closely at this time of year. Try to anticipate both side and totals moves in advance as potential poor weather conditions as game day nears.

NFL Week 14 look-ahead betting lines

The Week 14 NFL look ahead lines show seven division games (*) with some key games of interest impacting playoff positioning and teams pushing for the playoffs (Indianapolis at Houston and Philadelphia at Dallas). The two prime time games lead the TV ratings and betting action. Sunday night the LA Rams play at Chicago with both teams in first place, and Monday night’s feature are two teams leading the NFC wild-card chase with Minnesota at Seattle.

GameWestgate LineFanDuel Line
Jacksonville at Tennessee TEN -6TEN -5.5
Baltimore at Kansas CityKC -9.5 KC -8.5
New England at Miami NE -10NE -7.5
New Orleans at Tampa Bay NO -10.5NO -9
New York Jets at Buffalo BUF -3BUF -3
Carolina at ClevelandCLE -1CAR -1.5
Indianapolis at Houston HOU -3 (-120)HOU -3
NY Giants at Washington WASH -3 (+100)WASH -3
Atlanta at Green BayGB -7.5GB -6
Cincinnati at LA ChargersLAC -15.5LAC -13
Denver at San FranciscoDEN -4.5DEN -4
Pittsburgh at OaklandPIT -12.5PIT -11
Philadelphia at Dallas DAL -3.5 (+100)DAL -3
Detroit at ArizonaDET -3 (-120)DET -3.5
LA Rams at ChicagoLAR -3.5LAR -3
Minnesota at SeattleSEA -3 (+100)SEA -3

NFL Week 13 Lines: Spreads, Totals and NJ Betting Guide

Marco Cerino November 30, 2018
NFL Week 13 Lines

We start the first of five December weekends of NFL action here in Week 13. That’s right, only five weeks remain in the regular season!

As of now, nothing has been decided. Around 20 teams are still fighting for the 12 playoff spots. Let’s take an early look at the Week 13 lines at New Jersey sportsbooks.

(Odds updated 11/30/18)

 DraftKingsBetStarsFanDuel888sportSugarHouse
New Orleans
Dallas
-7.5
53
-7.5
53
-7
52.5
-7.5
53
-7.5
53
Arizona
Green Bay
44.5
-13.5
44.5
-14
44.5
-14
44.5
-13.5
44.5
-13.5
Baltimore
Atlanta
48.5
-1.5
48.5
-1.5
49
-1
48.5
-1.5
48.5
-1.5
Buffalo
Miami
40
-3.5
40
-3.5
40
-3.5
40
-3.5
40
-3.5
Carolina
Tampa Bay
-3.5
55.5
-3.5
55
-3.5
55
-3.5
55.5
-3.5
55.5
Chicago
NY Giants
-4.5
N/A
-3.5
44.5
-3.5
44.5
-4.5
N/A
-4.5
N/A
Cleveland
Houston
48
-6
47.5
-5.5
48
-5.5
48
-6
48
-6
Denver
Cincinnati
-4.5
43.5
-5
44
-4.5
44
-4.5
43.5
-4.5
43.5
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
-4.5
47.5
-4
47
-4
47.5
-4.5
47.5
-4.5
47.5
LA Rams
Detroit
-9.5
54.5
-10
54.5
-10
54.5
-9.5
54.5
-9.5
54.5
Kansas City
Oakland
-14.5
55.5
-15
55
-15.5
55.5
-14.5
55.5
-14.5
55.5
NY Jets
Tennessee
40.5
-7.5
40.5
-8.5
40.5
-8
40.5
-7.5
40.5
-7.5
Minnesota
New England
48.5
-5
49.5
-5
48.5
-5.5
48.5
-5
48.5
-5
San Francisco
Seattle
46
-9.5
46
-10
45.5
-10
46
-9.5
46
-9.5
LA Chargers
Pittsburgh
51.5
-3.5
51.5
-3.5
52
-3.5
51.5
-3.5
51.5
-3.5
Washington
Philadelphia
45
-6
45
-6.5
45
-6
45
-6
45
-6

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Week 13 betting breakdown

Saints (-7) at Cowboys: Drew Brees enters 5-3 against Dallas. He can clinch the NFC South with a win and Panthers loss this week. Bettors could find some early value on the Cowboys at FanDuel, while BetStars give a half-point to the under on Monday.

Cardinals at Packers (-14): FanDuel was the only book with a line on this game as of Monday morning. When was the last time the Cardinals won in Wisconsin? It was 1949 when the franchise was in Chicago.

Ravens (-2.5)  at Falcons: Baltimore has managed to keep its neck in front of the crowded race for the last AFC Wild Card slot. The teams have split the previous four games in the rivalry. Initially, only FanDuel had this game on the board Monday as we await the status of Joe Flacco. DraftKings opened the game at BAL -2.5.

Bills at Dolphins (-6): Buffalo swept the two December matchups last season, defeating Jay Cutler. The last three seasons have seen sweeps in this rivalry, with the Bills taking both in 2015 as well.

Panthers (-3.5) at Buccaneers: Carolina has won three straight and nine of 11 in against their division rivals. Keep an eye on this one all week as it could potentially move on and off that key number at different books.

Browns at Texans (-6): Houston has won the last four against Cleveland. This could be a value game between two hot teams after the Monday night game. There’s some disparity at the NJ operators early in the week.

Broncos at Bengals (-1.5): Two big upsets have put Denver in the 5-6 bunch chasing the last playoff spot. FanDuel was the only book offering this game on Monday as Andy Dalton’s status remained unknown.

Colts (-3.5) at Jaguars: Indy has won the last three in Jacksonville. DraftKings, PlaySugarHouse and 888Sport offered some value to the under at open.

Rams (-9.5) at Lions: To clinch the NFC West, the Rams need to win in Detroit for the first time since 2009. FanDuel offered some value on the home team at open.

Chiefs (-15) at Raiders: The Chiefs, coming off a bye, are 6-1 in the last seven against their rivals. There was some value to grab on Monday: DraftKings and PlaySugarHouse gave a half-point to the Chiefs, while FanDuel gives a half-point to Oakland.

Jets at Titans (-7): The Jets have won two straight in this series, but Tennessee has won two of the last three at home. The lines could jump in this game one they’re posted: William Hill was the only book to list this on Monday at TEN -9.5.

Vikings at Patriots (-4.5): Minnesota’s win over Green Bay slots them back in the Wild Card, while New England sits second in the AFC. Tom Brady won the only match-up against Kirk Cousins in 2015 when Cousins played in Washington.

49ers at Seahawks (-10): Seattle is the first team currently on the outside of the NFC Wild Card race, but they’ve got time to sort through the chaos. The Hawks have won the last eight against San Francisco.

Chargers at Steelers (-3.5): Pittsburgh has won eight of the last 10 regular season games against San Diego. This meeting is a big one for two playoff contenders.

Redskins at Eagles (-6.5): This feels like an eliminator for the NFC East title. Philly swept last year, while Washington took both in 2016. Watch this line as the injury reports come out during the week.

NFL Week 12 Lines: Spreads, Totals and NJ Betting Guide

Marco Cerino November 25, 2018
NFL Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving! This might be one of the best weeks of the year — three days of work, one day of gluttony, then a weekend full of sports to help resist these societal impulses to buy frivolously.

The NFL races are starting to take form and each game increases in magnitude. Let’s take a look at the spreads and totals at the New Jersey sportsbooks for Week 12.

(Odds updated 11/25/18)

 DraftKingsBetStarsFanDuel888sportSugarHouse
Chicago
Detroit
-2.5
44
-3
44
-2.5
44
-2.5
44
-2.5
44
Washington
Dallas
40.5
-7
40.5
-7
40.5
-7
40.5
-7
40.5
-7
Atlanta
New Orleans
59.5
-12.5
60
-13
59.5
-13
59.5
-12.5
59.5
-12.5
Cleveland
Cincinnati
46
-1
46.5
-1
46
-1.5
46
-1
46
-1
Jacksonville
Buffalo
-3
37
-3
37
-3
37
-3
37
-3
37
New England
NY Jets
-11
46
-12.5
46.5
-13
46.5
-11
46
-11
46
NY Giants
Philadelphia
49.5
-4
49
-4
49
-5
49.5
-4
49.5
-4
Oakland
Baltimore
42
-12
42
-12.5
42.5
-12
42
-12
42
-12
San Francisco
Tampa Bay
54.5
-2
54.5
-2
54.5
-2
54.5
-2
54.5
-2
Seattle
Carolina
46.5
-3
46.5
-3
46.5
-3
46.5
-3
46.5
-3
Arizona
LA Chargers
43.5
-13.5
43
-14
43
-14
43.5
-13.5
43.5
-13.5
Miami
Indianapolis
52
-9
51
-8
51.5
-9
52
-9
52
-9
Pittsburgh
Denver
-3
47
-3
47.5
-3
47.5
-3
47
-3
47
Green Bay
Minnesota
47.5
-3
47.5
-
47.5
-3.5
47.5
-3.5
47.5
-3.5
Titans
Texans
41.5
-4
41.5
-4
41.5
-3.5
41.5
-4
41.5
-4

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Week 12 betting breakdown

Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 22)

Bears (-2.5) at Lions: Good test for the mettle of this Bears’ team on a short week against a team they beat two weeks ago. However, this time they might have to do with without Mitch Trubisky. Most of the early money at BetStars is coming in on the Lions: 66% on the moneyline and 90% on the spread as of Wednesday.

Redskins at Cowboys (-7): Alex Smith’s injury puts Washington behind the eight ball in this one. We’re assuming Colt McCoy will start at QB after he fell just short of completing a comeback against Houston on Sunday. Dallas was getting 99% of the bets on the moneyline and 89% of spread bets at BetStars as of Wednesday morning.

Falcons at Saints (-13): The Saints haven’t lost since they got upset in the opener by Tampa. Bettors at BetStars are wagering heavy on the Saints moneyline (90%), Falcons spread (86%) and the over (80%) as of Wednesday.

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Sunday (Nov. 25)

Browns at Bengals (-1): Feeling dangerous about backing the Browns on the road? Their last win in the series was in Cincinnati in 2014. Andy Dalton enters a career 11-3 against the Browns. But this is a new regime in Cleveland.

Jaguars (-3) at Bills: This was a playoff game last year, remember? The Bills are coming off a bye and the Jags nearly upset Pittsburgh at home. The low total is worth keeping an eye on if you want to bet an over/under this week.

Patriots (-11) at Jets: Give Belichick and Brady two weeks to stew over an embarrassing loss at Tennessee and unleash them against a rookie QB? Reminder: Brady is 25-7 all-time against the Jets. Might be why FanDuel moved this all the way to -13 as of Sunday morning.

Giants at Eagles (-4): Two teams on opposite trajectories in a division that’s completely up for grabs. This opened at Philly -5 and moved to -6 as of Wednesday, then back to -4 as the weekend approached.

Raiders at Ravens (-12): The Ravens looked pretty good running the ball without Joe Flacco last week. The Raiders look like a literal mutiny, even after beating Arizona on the road. As of Monday, Oakland was getting a full point extra value at FanDuel. But watch for the line to move if Flacco is cleared to play.

49ers at Buccaneers (-2): Jameis Winston won his 2016 start in San Fran with three touchdown passes. Good chance to earn that contract extension here.

Seahawks at Panthers (-3.5): Carolina has been a much better team at home than on the road, facing a team coming cross country but with extra rest. Seattle has won five of the last six in this rivalry.

Cardinals at Chargers (-14): Two teams coming off close, late losses last week. Books were consistent with the spread and total across the board on Monday. The line moved from 11.5 to 13 as of Wednesday.

Dolphins at Colts (-9): These two teams are part of a 5-5 logjam for the last AFC wild card spot. Andrew Luck has split two starts against Miami, although he hasn’t faced them since 2013.

Steelers (-3) at Broncos: Big Ben enters 1-2 in the regular season against Denver. DraftKings, PlaySugarHouse, and 888Sport gave the hook to the Broncos at open.

Packers at Vikings (-3.5): Rematch of the September tie between these two division rivals. Both teams are coming off losses.

Titans at Texans (OFF): Tennessee has struggled with consistency while Houston gets the heavy recency bias from their win streak. The game was listed on a few boards Monday and then removed on Tuesday.

NFL Week 13 Look-Ahead Lines And Betting Market Moves For Week 12

FairwayJay November 23, 2018
NFL Week13 Lines

The FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey and the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas in release NFL advance look-ahead lines, and Week 13 follows the Thanksgiving week games. All three favorites won and covered Thanksgiving Day, and those results will impact the Week 13 lines once they are released following the completion of Sunday’s games on Nov. 25.

The NFL has backloaded the second half of the regular season schedule with more meaningful division games, and those division duels will have much of the betting action while determining which teams reach the playoffs and playoff positioning and seeding.

Adjusting to market moves

Despite at least a 3-point move from the Week 12 lookahead lines to the current lines on both the Saints and Cowboys, those two teams still covered the point spread in Thanksgiving Day wins. We continue to see some of the big adjustments in the betting lines based on the previous week’s results, and more favorites have continued to cover over the past month. Don’t expect that to continue into December despite many teams being eliminated from the playoffs while taking more points as underdogs.

With many bettors and the public following the market moves and adjustments and cashing in, the Week 12 games and market moves below should be popular plays despite some of the lessons learned from the contrary nature and often surprising results in the NFL. The sportsbooks can count on many bettors continuing to ride the hot teams and bet on the winning teams while fading the losing teams the rest of the season.

A correction is likely in order.

Week 12 look-ahead lines and major moves

Many bettors react more to recent results and are often unwilling to bet on bad teams. Those teams will take fewer bets and less betting action in Week 12: Bills (+3.5), Raiders (+10.5), 49ers (+3), Giants (+5.5), Browns (+3), NY Jets (+10.5) and Cardinals (+13). Jets QB Sam Darnold has been ruled out, which only has more bettors laying double-digits on the road with New England.

For the Week 12 games on Sunday, Nov. 25, these are the games where there was at least a two-point difference from the look-ahead line in Las Vegas or New Jersey and current line:

  • New England at NY Jets (NE -7, FanDuel) – Current line Patriots -10.5
  • Miami at Indianapolis (IND -5.5, FanDuel) – Current line Colts -8
  • Arizona at LA Chargers (LAC -10.5, FanDuel) – Current line Chargers -13
  • NY Giants at Philadelphia (PHI -9.5, SuperBook) – Current line Eagles -5.5
  • Tennessee at Houston (HOU -3, FanDuel) – Current line Texans -6

The major adjustments and market moves are against the losing teams again except for the Giants, as the Eagles’ continued struggles have finally seen an adjustment against them. The sportsbooks understand the need to adjust with most bettors unwilling to bet on the losing teams. Value will be available the rest of the year on many underdogs, and even the worst teams.

Scoring is at a record high 48.4 points per game this season, and a large majority of bets were on the OVER record posted total of 64 points last Monday night between the Chiefs and Rams. No issue, as those two teams obliterated the total in an offensive explosion with the Rams winning 54-51 in the third highest scoring game in NFL history. The sportsbooks got buried. Don’t feel sorry, but expect some continued adjustments upward in totals like the Saints vs. Falcons (60) game on Thanksgiving Day which New Orleans won 31-17. Multiple Falcons turnovers deep in Saints territory curbed scoring, and that one did not work out as well for most bettors who continue to bet over the total.

NFL Week 13 look-ahead betting lines

The Saints continue their surge with 10-straight wins including a 9-0 ATS run as they travel to Dallas on Thursday to kickoff Week 13. New Orleans has a regular week of rest having played on Thursday in their win over Atlanta.

The Week 13 NFL look ahead lines show six division games with some key games of interest impacting playoff positioning and teams pushing for the playoffs with Minnesota at New England highlighting the late afternoon games while the LA Chargers at Pittsburgh is the marquee match-up in early action.

GameWestgate LineFanDuel Line
New Orleans at Dallas (Thurs)NO -7.5NO -7
Indianapolis at JacksonvilleIND -2.5JAX -1.5
LA Chargers at PittsburghPIT -4.5PIT -3
Carolina at Tampa BayCAR -4.5CAR -1.5
Baltimore at AtlantaOFFATL -1.5
Cleveland at HoustonHOU -7HOU -7
Buffalo at MiamiOFFMIA -6
Chicago at NY GiantsCHI -4.5CHI -3
Denver at Cincinnati CIN -2.5CIN -2.5
LA Rams at DetroitLAR -7LAR -8
Arizona at Green BayGB -11.5GB -11.5
Kansas City at OaklandKC -14KC -14
NY Jets at TennesseeOFFTEN -5.5
Minnesota at New EnglandNE -6NE -4.5
San Francisco at SeattleSEA -7.5SEA -7.5
Washington at Philadelphia (Mon)PHI -6.5PHI -7

Local NY Giants Dominating NFL Betting Action At BetStars NJ

Juan Carlos Blanco November 18, 2018
Giants Betting

Both the shiny and familiar objects are getting plenty of attention from customers at BetStars NJ during the NFL season.

The New Jersey sportsbook’s latest data reveals much of what we’d suspect as we approach the NFL regular season’s stretch run:

  • Despite winning only two games, the New York Giants are the most frequently wagered-on NFL team (9.8 percent of NFL bets)
  • Two “legacy” teams with significant nationwide fandom — the Steelers (5.0 percent) and Cowboys (4.6 percent) — check in at number two and four, respectively.
  • The AFC’s hottest team this season, the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs, check in as the third-most popular team for bets at 4.8 percent.
  • Another team with plenty of nationwide interest, the Saints, rounds out the top five at 4.0 percent of all NFL wagers.

Most popular teams a mixed bag versus spread

How have these favorite options performed against BetStars’ lines? Three — KC, New Orleans and Pittsburgh — have frequently rewarded those who’ve wagered on them to cover. They sport respective 80.0 percent, 77.8 percent and 66.7 percent success rates versus the spread thus far.

But, it’s been a different story for those who’ve plunked down some bucks on the pair of NFC East representatives. Both the Giants and Cowboys have each failed to beat the number in five of their nine tries.

Conversely, two other prominent clubs currently making a beeline for the postseason are curiously receiving far less attention from Garden State bettors:

  • The Rams, despite boasting a smorgasbord of offensive firepower that would seemingly engender plenty of confidence in moneyline bets, aren’t the darlings of bettors by any means — they check in as the NFL team with the fifth-fewest percentage of wagers (2.1) placed on it by BetStars customers. The issue may lie in the Rams’ rather surprising inconsistency in covering, despite their sparkling won/loss record — they’re only 4-6 (40.0 percent versus the number).
  • The fast-rising Bears and electric second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky may be thrilling the Chicago faithful, but their mostly impressive exploits have largely fallen flat with the East Coast crowd — the Monsters of the Midway rank dead last among NFL teams as the subject of a scant 1.4 percent of wagers. Unlike Los Angeles, Chicago has come through versus the spread twice as often as it’s failed — they sport a 6-3 record (66.7 percent) in that regard. However, early-season lack of confidence in Trubisky could have certainly helped drive that sparse action.

NFL ATS Records 2018 (BetStars closing lines)

TeamATS RecordCover %Margin of VictoryATS +/-% Total Bets
Arizona5-3-162.5%-11.2-5.32.4%
Atlanta3-6-033.3%-1.1-3.12.1%
Baltimore4-5-044.4%5.9+3.62.2%
Buffalo4-6-040.0%-11.4-2.02.6%
Carolina5-4-055.6%1.0+0.72.7%
Chicago6-3-066.7%10.4+6.11.4%
Cincinnati4-5-044.4%-5.9-5.31.8%
Cleveland6-4-060.0%-4.5-0.52.7%
Dallas4-5-044.4%1.1+1.84.6%
Denver3-5-137.5%-0.9+0.83.9%
Detroit5-4-055.6%-4.7-3.22.0%
Green Bay4-5-044.4%0.8-1.74.0%
Houston4-5-044.4%3.6+1.22.4%
Indianapolis4-4-150.0%2.3+3.92.0%
Jacksonville3-5-137.5%-4.3-6.02.3%
Kansas City8-2-080.0%11.3+7.34.8%
LA Chargers5-4-055.6%6.0+2.22.3%
LA Rams4-6-040.0%10.4+2.82.1%
Miami5-5-050.0%-5.7-1.72.1%
Minnesota5-3-162.5%1.9-1.33.5%
NE Patriots6-4-060.0%4.4-1.83.9%
NO Saints7-2-077.8%10.9+7.34.1%
NY Giants4-5-044.4%-5.7-2.19.8%
NY Jets3-7-030.0%-4.6-2.63.9%
Oakland2-7-022.2%-13.9-10.22.2%
Philadelphia3-6-033.3%1.7-2.23.3%
Pittsburgh6-3-066.7%7.8+5.25.0%
SF 49ers3-7-030.0%-3.6-0.93.2%
Seattle5-3-162.5%3.0+5.23.0%
Tampa Bay3-6-033.3%-6.6-4.32.4%
Tennessee6-3-066.7%1.9+5.13.0%
Washington6-3-066.7%0.1+0.92.5%

Big names wield big power in NBA as well

Star power is carrying the day when it comes to the hardwood, too.

LeBron James is a magnet for money in all sorts of ways, not just in the astronomical salaries he commands each time he “transports” his talents to a new city. The Lakers are the team of choice when it comes to BetStars customers in the new NBA season, commanding 9.6 percent of the sportsbook’s NBA action. The rest of the top five is fairly predictable as well:

  • Warriors: 7.6 percent
  • 76ers: 7.1 percent
  • Knicks: 4.9 percent
  • Celtics: 4.2 percent

The drop-off is steep after the top three, but as with the Giants, the Knicks hold plenty of appeal to area bettors. New York currently sports a 6-6-2 record versus the number over its first 14 games.

Meanwhile, the Warriors, Sixers and Celtics are all long on talent but notably short on reliability when it comes to those who’ve banked on them covering. Their respective records against the spread:

  • Warriors: 8-7 (53.3 percent)
  • 76ers: 6-9 (40.0 percent)
  • Celtics: 4-9 (30.8 percent)

Fittingly — considering Showtime reigns supreme as the most wagered-on NBA team — LeBron’s two former clubs are stuck bringing up the rear in terms of NBA action at BetStars:

  • Cavaliers: 1.5 percent
  • Heat: 1.1 percent

BetStars boasts its own unique college football leaderboard

On the college football side, BetStars features a top 25 poll that has its share of differences with current real-world NCAA rankings:

  • Consensus #1 Alabama finds itself the recipient of just 0.1 percent of the action at BetStars.
  • Unanimous runner-up Clemson is doing only slightly better at 0.6 percent.
  • A team with no shortage of nationwide prominence, history and appeal — No. 3-ranked Notre Dame — has them both beat with a 1.1 percent stake of the action.
  • Oregon may only have a 3-4 record and checks in fourth in the Pac-10 alone, but they’re top dogs at BetStars — 5.1 percent of college pigskin money is being plunked down on the Ducks.
  • The closest correlations between real-word and BetStars rankings belong to LSU and Washington State. Ranked No. 7 and 10 in the CFP and AP rankings, respectively, the Tigers check in second on BetStars with 3.4 percent of the college football action. Meanwhile, the Cougars’ unanimous No. 8 rankings in the official polls are complemented by No. 3 slotting in terms of popularity with BetStars customers (3.3 percent of wagers).
  • The team closest in proximity to New Jersey holding the highest ranking on BetStars leaderboard is the Penn State Nittany Lions — 2.3 percent of wagers, fourth overall.