With the first College Football Playoff ranking committee release coming Oct. 30, it’s a good time to look at CFB futures.

Last week saw four college football top 10 teams fall (as well as pseudo-contenders Wisconsin and Miami).

This, of course, caused some futures movement among potential contenders.

In Vegas, some losses are weighted heavier than others. For a team like the Georgia Bulldogs, there was little impact on their overall title odds after their road loss to LSU (+600 before, +800 after). However, for Wisconsin (+8000 to +30000), Penn State (+5000 to +50000) and Washington (+3000 to +30000), their losses propelled them to “historic longshot” status.

Bettors saw shrinking value on title odds for teams that did survive the weekend carnage, like Ohio State and Clemson (now +500 and +400, respectively).

While CFB Week 8 doesn’t have the volume of top 25 clashes as last Saturday, let’s look at some match-ups that could move futures.

Looking into the futures

This weekend’s marquee match-up pits two ACC undefeateds against each other, with #16 NC State (+30000) traveling to #3 Clemson (+400).

While a loss may not take Clemson totally out of the title picture, it would certainly do so for NC State. If you have a hard time though comprehending how a doofus goofball like Dabo Swinney continues to field and successfully coach elite teams, grab NC State now. While there’s a better chance of Swinney decoding a dinosaur genome than NC State beating Alabama or Georgia for a national title, that +30000 future will certainly go down with a win against Clemson.

LSU, fresh off its ultimately meaningless home win against UGA, now sits at #5 in the polls. If you’re looking for some precedence of what an NC State win at Clemson could do to their title odds, LSU just experienced that jolt, going from +10000 to +4000 in a week. However, a trip up in a certain let-down game against #22 Mississippi St. would give the Tigers two losses and essentially knock them out of the title conversation.

The last game with realistic futures implications is a suddenly strong looking #6 Michigan (+2500) at #24 Michigan St. (+100000). Like LSU, Michigan is a one-loss team with no margin for error. Two losses would be a nail in the coffin for Michigan’s title chances, while a win wouldn’t really move that +100000 on Michigan St.

But what does Vegas really think?

The Westgate’s power ratings are a good indicator as to what Vegas really thinks about college teams.

Clemson sits at #2 in the power ratings (a full 11 points behind ‘Bama), but still significantly ahead of NC State at 25. FiveThirtyEight only gives NC State a 16% chance of winning the game, which again makes this match-up the most likely to move futures with an upset.

Vegas also considers Michigan (#4 power rating) and LSU (#7)  much stronger than Michigan St (#20) and Mississippi (#21). However, Michigan St will be at home, and anything can happen in rivalry matchups.

Alabama is booking the best odds to win the national title since the 2005 USC Trojans.

Before last weekend, Bama was around +175 at most sportsbooks to win the Colleg Football National Championship. USC was +160 in ’05. Despite quarterback Tua Tagovailoa lighting it up against Louisville and Bama looking as dominant as ever, they’re now listed between +180 and +200 at books in New Jersey.

• FanDuel: +200
• MGM: +190
• William Hill: +180

That’s in part because the public loves Clemson. At the William Hill sportsbook locations in Nevada and New Jersey, Clemson is taking in 22% of the money. Bama is taking 14%.

SEC tho…

Of teams among the 10 best title odds, the SEC (obviously) has the most. Along with Alabama, Georgia (+800), Auburn (+1400), and LSU (+2500) are among the favorites.

One of the bigger games this weekend that could shift future odds is the SEC battle between #3 Georgia and #24 South Carolina. Betting darlings Clemson take on a tough SEC foe in Texas A&M as well.

Other potential future-shifting games this weekend include the potential annual Oklahoma slip-up (vs. UCLA), and the PAC-12 battle between #10 Stanford and #17 USC.

Break out the oversized, satirical cymbals! Let the sardonic rings of gongs fill the air! The Associated Press Preseason Top 25 college football poll has been announced!

Oh, joy! The season hasn’t started but it has already been decided! Hooray, we did it!

But seriously, guys, c’mon. Rein in the enthusiasm/conspiracy theories. This whole thing is ridiculous.

Pointless is as pointless does

Preseason polls are pointless. Take this tweet from Jeff Schultz, a senior writer for The Athletic.

Remember how big a deal this used to be? https://t.co/vDaz4Ok2Ul

— Jeff Schultz (@JeffSchultzATL) August 20, 2018

They are biased. Not in the same sense that fans make it seem. “Why do (insert poll creators) hate (insert your team) so much? These guys are clearly (insert political view you vehemently disagree with even though you don’t actually understand what it is or why)!”

Polls themselves hold recency bias. They are based on the previous week’s results. That’s fine. It makes sense.

But preseason? Clickbait. Click chumbucket. Click diaper-dumpster-fire. But, hey, I guess conversations have to start somewhere. And I supposed some reference is needed when it comes to somewhat-educated sports betting.

So, here goes… I guess…

For those who care too much

Typically with sports betting, there are two groups of folk: those who take rankings as gospel, and those who think they know better than the rankings/experts/everyone.

An unborn child could have predicted the preseason No. 1: Alabama. For the third straight year (a feat matched only once historically), the Crimson Tide came in at the top spot heading into the season. National champs twice in the last three years (and five times since 2009) are followed by *feigning shocked face* Clemson, the preseason’s No. 2 team for the second time in three seasons.

Third is Georgia, last year’s national runner-up. Then comes the Big Ten bores Ohio State and Wisconsin and the “well, we have to give the Pac-12 some love” Washington Huskies.

Betting on the CFP championship has become as much fun as the NBA Finals.

Then again, there is some hope for a solid payday.

Consider the 2017 playoffs: Of the final four teams, only Bama was ranked in the top four before the season. Georgia was actually 15th. In 2016, two final four teams were not among the preseason top four; in fact, Washington was 14th. Three of the top 10 teams in the final CFP poll entered the season unranked. The previous season, Clemson and Oklahoma entered the year ranked 12th and 19th, respectively, yet ultimately made the CFP playoffs.

So not all is chalk when it comes to the college football championship. Last year, even, the preseason No. 1 (Bama) needed a Hail Mary selection just to sneak into the playoffs. (*throws stapler across the room in disgust*)

With Ohio State swirling in its own coaching debacle, with Wisconsin/Michigan/Penn State beating each other up year-in and year-out, the Big Ten could be a shoo-out of the playoffs. Same goes for the SEC outside of Alabama and Georgia. Go with the Tide if you dare do the math on 19-10 odds, or with Clemson because 3-1 odds are easier to calculate. Even Georgia is 9-1, which is insanely reasonable.

Put faith in Touchdown Jesus and lay money down on Notre Dame at 40-1, or trust Mark Richt, if you dare, to lead Miami (at 50-1) to the title.

For the self-proclaimed experts

Go with your gut. Because obviously, you don’t care what’s written here. To you, this portion is as pointless as the preseason rankings themselves.

To that, I tip my backwards hat… but will be the first to laugh when your Michigan pick goes down in flames by Week 6.

Las Vegas sportsbook operators and casinos are continuing to create earlier than ever sports wagering opportunities. This week the South Point released three ways to wager on the upcoming college football season: Week 1 lines, point spreads for games of the year, and season win totals for the upcoming college football season (see below for all three).

South Point is the first land-based casino in America to release these college football numbers. The distinction of being the first Las Vegas casino to release college football lines used to be held by Golden Nugget. They’ll release their lines shortly. South Point started to release their college football lines early when Chris Andrews joined the team since he typically has his college football research complete in May.

College football opens at @southpointlv today at 10am. 1 dime limit, 3 bets then go to the back of the line. At the windows only for the first hour. Then available on the app and @RampartCasino.

— Chris Andrews (@andrewssports) May 21, 2018

Even though the lines are created at South Point and offered via mobile and at Rampart Casino, the college football lines on Monday morning were only available to bet in person at South Point initially. The lines were released to NV Sports app bettors and Rampart Casino customers in Summerlin shortly thereafter.

The unfortunate people in Summerlin had to get in their cars and drive 20 minutes to the South Point to get the best of the college football lines instead of just wagering on a mobile device or at Rampart Casino. South Point released the lines on site simply because it’s easier to keep track of the bets placed when they’re all in one place.

South Point early line bet limits

The maximum bet limit on the early college football lines is relatively low at $1,000 per wager. The maximum bet limit will increase as the season approaches. South Point sportsbook director, Chris Andrews, says the maximum wager should increase in early August.

Each bettor may place three wagers before moving to the back of the line. This gives the other early bettors a chance to place wagers before one person has a chance to completely hog the betting desk and destroy certain lines. This also gives the sportsbook operators at South Point time to move the line so they aren’t torched too badly.

The lower maximum wager is on the high end for early lines in Las Vegas. CG Technology released pro football lines earlier this year with a maximum bet of $500. Sportsbook operators use these low limits to keep exposure to risk at a minimum. Reputable sportsbook operators like the South Point may move lines quickly but they will always take the action and pay on the bets they lose. That’s sorta how things are supposed to work.

The college football opening week lines moved quickly. Shortly after the initial college football lines were posted Chris Andrews tweeted the following adjustments.

Openers on the left, updated college football lines in the second column. pic.twitter.com/cbqSLtfQYy

— Chris Andrews (@andrewssports) May 21, 2018

The lines will continue to move as more people bet on the individual games. Here are some easy to read line movement highlights after the first hour of college football betting at South Point:

• Notre Dame from -7 to -1 vs. Michigan
• Purdue +2 to -3 vs. Northwestern
• Syracuse -1 to -6 at Western Michigan

Games of the year spreads

Team regular season win totals