The Alabama Crimson Tide (31-5) square off against the San Diego St. Aztecs (29-6) at 6:30 p.m. ET on Friday in Louisville. The Tide is a spread favorite, with SDSU on the moneyline to win in South Region odds. The point total is set at . In this article we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on Sweet 16 odds.
Read on for team matchups, key metrics, and best available Sweet 16 odds. Click on those odds anywhere in this post to bet now and lock in the best sports betting bonus code, if you are a new user at that sportsbook.
Alabama vs. SDSU betting odds
Betting the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A plus sign in front of the spread denotes the underdog, and a minus sign denotes the favorite. Betting the moneyline is simply betting on which particular team will win the game.
The betting total is the number of combined points the two teams will score. Bettors can choose to bet the over or under on how many total points will be scored in the game. To place a bet on Maryland March Madness odds, click on the odds in the table.
Alabama vs. SDSU player props
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Alabama March Madness Futures
Alabama vs. SDSU Betting Insights
Why Alabama Can Cover
Alabama’s height first and foremost will be a problem for the Aztecs. Due to their tremendous height in their lineup, the Tide are able to crash the offensive glass at a 34% clip, ranking 25th in the nation. They’re led in this department by Charles Bediako and Noah Clowney. Clowney sports a top-36 offensive rebounding rate in the country while Clowney is top-355. Second-chance opportunities should be plentiful against the shorter Aztecs.
Additionally, the Tide should be able to get some easy points from the free throw line. Alabama scores 20.2% of their points from the charity stripe, the 67th highest rate in the country. Conversely, Brian Dutcher‘s squad allows opponents to score 19% of their points at the charity stripe, which ranks 129th in D-1. Their aggressiveness on defense has caused them to get into foul trouble. If Alabama attacks the rim at a high rate, refs may have no choice but to blow the whistle frequently.
Furthermore, Nate Oat’s squad is elite in their ability to defend the rim. According to Haslametrics, Alabama ranks first in near proximity field goal percentage allowed, at 46.89%. The Aztecs conversely rank 31st in near proximity field goal percentage, at 64.8%. The advantage here lies with the Tide as they are bigger and more athletic in the low post. If San Diego State attacks the rim and continues to fail, they could go on a long scoring drought that will make it difficult for their offense to recover from.
Why San Diego State Can Cover
The Aztecs’ success in this game will boil down to their defense. The Aztecs boast a top-five defense, according to Kenpom, led by their ability to limit offensive rebounds and pressure the ball. Matt Bradley and Darrion Trammell are particularly disruptive, getting in the grill of their opponents and pressuring them relentlessly. Lamon Butler is also fantastic, sporting a 3.5% steal percentage, which sits at a top-69 rate in the nation. If the Aztec guards can crank up the pressure on Quinerly and Bradley and disrupt the flow of Alabama’s offense, they certainly have a chance to cover and, more importantly, win outright.
The Tide have struggled against heavy ball pressure teams, most notably against Tennessee in February. In that game, Alabama was held to a mere 59 points and forced into 19 turnovers. Quinerly was the main culprit in the turnover department, coughing up six.
Nathan Mensah, the defensive player of the year in the Mountain West, should be able to prevent easy baskets at the rim for this Bama offense that loves to attack the basket. Mensah sports a 9.2 block percentage, which is top-20 in all D-1. If he’s affecting shots in the post, Bama could become one dimensional and forced into making their perimeter shots.
Alabama’s Miller suffered a groin injury in the Texas A&M game on March 12. Since that game, the freshman phenom has shot a measly 22.7% from the field. This should be monitored closely during this weekend’s games.
After connecting on a miserable 21.8% of their perimeter shots over their last three games, the Aztecs could be due for some positive 3-point shooting regression. The Tide tend to play drop coverage with their big men Bediako and Clowney, which should open up some clean looks for San Diego State’s guards.
Moreover, the pace will also play a significant role in this matchup. Dutcher’s squad is incredibly slow-paced and force their opponents into longer possessions due to their ball pressure and full-court press. If the Aztecs can pressure Alabama’s guards and force them into their half-court offense, they should prevent many leak out points from the Tide.
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I won’t have a play in this game. I don’t trust Alabama against a good ball pressure team like the Aztecs. On the flip side, I don’t trust the Aztecs offense to be consistent for 40 minutes. Good luck betting Sweet 16 odds!
Best Available Line: San Diego State